1. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

2. DID IT THUNDER YESTERDAY ?

3. DID IT RAIN YESTERDAY ?

4. 10z TUES

5. SURFACE PRESSURE ? ? ? ? ?

6. SURFACE PRESSURE

7. Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector

8. Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector

12. H 570 ? 582 X 588 594 - Vorticity maximums (vort max) Shortwaves
Upper-level troughs
Jet stream disturbances

13. OLDER MODEL RUN
570 X
582
HT MON = 585 dm
HT WED = 572 dm

14. NEWER MODEL RUN
570 X
582
HT MON = 585 dm
HT WED = 572 dm

15. SPC SVR WX

16. DAY 2 OUTLOOK - TUESDAY

17. SPC DISCO ….. TUES – TUES NITE
NEW ENGLAND AND NY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
DESPITE THE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THIS
REGION...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER BUOYANCY WITH
MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE FROM VT INTO EASTERN NY AND EASTERN
PA... AND UP TO 1500 J/KG IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES A LEE TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...YIELDING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS.
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER FROM EASTERN PA THROUGH
EASTERN NY TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND… WHERE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS MD/VA/DE.
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY FROM EASTERN PA
NORTH...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

22. SPC DISCO ….. TUES – TUES NITE
NEW ENGLAND AND NY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
DESPITE THE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THIS
REGION...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER BUOYANCY WITH
MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE FROM VT INTO EASTERN NY AND EASTERN
PA... AND UP TO 1500 J/KG IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES A LEE TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...YIELDING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS.
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER FROM EASTERN PA THROUGH
EASTERN NY TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND… WHERE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS MD/VA/DE.
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY FROM EASTERN PA
NORTH...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

25. 570
582
588 X
594 H

27. JOW SCHMO 58 Y 5 NE
Y - SW NW SE SW

28. Basic Forecast Guidelines
Climatology Forecast = averages for today
Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s values
Modified Persistence = Persistence + Any changes

29. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

30. NHC TROPICAL DEPRESSION Winds of 20-34 knots (38 mph or less)
TROPICAL STORM
Winds of knots (39 to 73 mph)
HURRICANE
Category 1: Winds of knots (74-95 mph)
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage
Category 2: Winds of knots ( mph)
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage
Category 3: Winds of knots ( mph)
Devastating damage will occur
Category 4: Winds of 114 to 135 knots ( mph)
Catastrophic damage will occur
Category 5: Winds above 135 knots (157 mph)
ATL HURRICANES WX UNDERGROUND

31. WX UNDERGROUND

32. Center of High and Low
pressure
Isobars
Isobars

33. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I - NWS - NHC - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

34. Basic Forecast Guidelines
What causes temperature to change?
Cloud cover:
Precipitation:
When it rains T’s …..
Wind:
Direction - Speed

35. Basic Forecast Guidelines
What causes rain?
Need clouds!
Will any ole cloud do?
Moisture
Bodies of water – Moisture content of air

36. Basic Forecast Guidelines
Extrapolation= Look upstream to see what’s coming!
Sat IR - Sat II - Sat VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

37. Basic Forecast Guidelines
The “Models”
What are they?
Lower Res. (GFS)
Higher Res. (GFS)
Higher Res. (NAM)
Higher Res. (HRRR)
MOS - Statistical guidance

38. Your competition !!! The National Weather Service The Weather Channel
Accuweather
The guy or gal to your left and right