2. Global Zero Military Incidents Study
Jessica Sleight, Research and Policy Associate

3. Military Incidents: U.S./NATO and Russia
Nuclear weapons countries are on a dangerous path, participating in military activities that have the potential to escalate into dangerous situations with catastrophic consequences.
331 incidents analyzed from March 2014 through April involving Russia and the U.S./NATO
2 incidents classified as “High-Risk” – Incidents that greatly increased the possibility of actual armed conflict, which could ultimately lead to a nuclear attack
54 incidents classified as “Provocative” – incidents that were deemed aggressive but not explicitly “high- risk”
Blue – Sea Incident Mustard – Air Incident Green – Test
Grey – Defense News (i.e. deployments) Brown – Military Exercise
Star – High-Risk Incident Diamond – Provocative Incident
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4. Air Incidents: The Baltic
Roughly 56% of all air incidents analyzed involving Russia and the U.S./NATO occurred over the Baltic region.
Almost one-quarter of all provocative incidents were air intercepts over the Baltic.
2013 (before Russian annexation of Crimea): NATO fighters intercept Russian aircraft 43 times (Sharkov 2017).
2014: NATO fighters intercept Russian aircraft 140 times (Tomkins 2016).
2015: NATO fighters intercept Russian aircraft 160 times – a 14% increase over 2014 (Tomkins 2016).
2016: NATO fighters intercept Russian aircraft 110 times (Sharkov 2017).
Incidents analyzed over in the Baltic region from March 2014-April Incident locations are approximations.