1. Mastering Research Methods – How to Teach Probability and Significance

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A packed day with OVER 40 active teaching & learning activities…

4. Session Aims What is probability (p)? What is significance?
Practical Approaches to Teach Probability
Probability & Significance
How to write a full-mark hypothesis
Hypothesis Writing

5. Probability What is probability (p)?
Probability is the likelihood that a particular event (or outcome) will occur.
Be Careful…
You can use everyday examples to demonstrate the idea of probability, however, try to always relate these to expressing probability as a decimal, which is what students will require later…
It is best to always insist that your students express probability as a decimal.
1 (Certain)
0 (Impossible)
0.5 (Even)

6. Everyday Examples of Probability
Possible Questions:
What is the probability (p) that I will throw a heads?
What is the probability (p) that I will throw a tails?

7. Everyday Examples of Probability
Possible Questions:
What is the probability (p) that I will pick a red card?
What is the probability (p) that I will pick a club?
What is the probability (p) that I will pick picture card?
What is the probability (p) that I will pick an ‘Ace’?
Maths Hint:
Club = 13/52 = 0.25
Picture = 12/52
Ace = 4/52
Ace = 0.07
Club = 0.25
Red Card = 0.5
1 (Certain)
0 (Impossible)
0.5 (Even)
Picture = 0.23

8. Everyday Examples of Probability
Possible Questions…If you want to be mean:
What is the probability (p) that I will pick a disgusting green sweet?
What is the probability (p) that I will taste a rainbow?

9. Linking Everyday Examples to RM
Mr Riley watches the news before going to work. Carol the weather lady says that there’s a 0.05 probability of rain, everyday for the next 100 days!
However, Mr Riley lives life on the edge and doesn’t like to use an umbrella. In the next 100 days, how many times is he likely to get wet?
5 Days in 100
In other words there is 95% chance that Mr Sparks will not get wet. Hence he doesn’t take an umbrella.
Rain = 0.05 5%
95%
1 (Certain)
0 (Impossible)
0.5 (Even)

10. What is significance?
What is significance? Significance is a statistical term which indicates that the association between two (or more) variables is strong enough for us to accept the experimental hypothesis.
Psychologists will only accept their experimental hypothesis if they are at least 95% sure that the results were caused by the IV.
P= ≤0.05 5%
95%
1 (Certain)
0 (Impossible)
0.5 (Even)
This means that there is (generally) a 5% chance that a psychologist might accept there experimental hypothesis when the results were due to chance and NOT the IV. (Type I Error)

11. Practical Approaches to Teach Probability
Activity: Can you taste the difference?
A worked example
A blank version to try in class…

12. Practical Approaches to Teach Probability
Step 1: State the Hypothesis: Can you taste the difference?
Experimental Hypothesis: I believe that there will be significantly more chocolate chips in the taste the difference cookies in comparison to the bakery cookies.
Null Hypothesis: There will be no significant difference between the number of chocolate chips in the taste the difference cookies vs the bakery cookies. Any difference will be due to chance.

13. Taste the Difference Cookies
Step 2: Raw Data
Step 2: Raw Data Place the raw data in a table…
Normal Cookies
Step 2: No. of Chips
Rank
Taste the Difference Cookies 1 4 6 2 5 3 7 8 9 10
NA=
RA= 66.5
NB=
RB= 143.5

14. Step 3: Rank the Data
At this point you need to rank ALL of the data as a whole (e.g. all 20 scores). The easiest way to do this is to write all of the scores in order. Then write the numbers 1-20 beneath the scores. Then, any tied scores (e.g. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8), receive a joint rank (see below). After you have done this, then complete the table, as shown above.

15. Step 4: Add Each Set of Ranks
Normal Cookies
Step 2: No. of Chips
Rank
Taste the Difference Cookies 1 4
5.5 6 14 2 5 10 3
2.5 7 17 8
19.5 9
NA=
RA= 66.5
NB=
RB= 143.5

16. Step 5: Final the Calculated Value of U
U is the smallest of the two R values, in this case RA.
U = RA – [NA (NA + 1)] / 2
U = 66.5 – [ 10 X (10+1)] / 2
U = 66.5 – 110 / 2
U =
U = 11.5

17. Step 6: Find the Critical Value of U
Using the critical value table and values of NA (called N1) and NB (called N2) work out the critical values, in this case for a one-tailed hypothesis at a P= ≤0.05 significance level. Critical Value = 27

18. Step 7: Report the Findings
The calculated value of U = which is lower than the critical value of 27. Therefore, we can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that taste the difference cookies have significantly more chocolate chips at a P= ≤0.05, thus accepting our experimental hypothesis. Step 8: CHECK! Check your results against:

19. Practical Approaches to Teach Probability
Activity: Can you taste the difference?
A worked example
A blank version to try in class…

20. Type I vs Type II Errors Type I Type II
Extension: You can then link this to Type I and II Errors. Let’s imagine that your 10 taste the difference cookies were an odd batch and had too many chocolate chips...
Type I
Type II
When we accept the experimental hypothesis when the results were actually due to chance.
When we reject the experimental hypothesis when the results were actually significant.
If we accept the experimental hypothesis (the idea that taste the difference cookies have more chocolate chips than the bakery version, but there is really no difference, then a Type I error has been made.

21. Session Aims What is probability (p)? What is significance?
Practical Approaches to Teach Probability
Probability & Significance
How to write a full-mark hypothesis
Hypothesis Writing

22. Hypothesis Writing – Practice, Practice, Practice
Task 1:
Underline the IV
Circle the DV
Decide whether the hypothesis is directional or non-directional…

23. Activity 1: Underline the IV, Circle the DV…
There will be a significant difference in the amount of sweat produced by participants who play sport in comparison to participants who do not play sport.
Underline the IV, Circle the DV
IV = Participants who play sport VS. those who do not play sport
DV = Sweat produced…
(Measured in millilitres?)
Important (Operationalise): The IV MUST include the different conditions (2). The DV MUST be measurable (1) – The 3 Key Ingredients.

24. Hypothesis Writing – Practice, Practice, Practice
Task 2:
State the IV
State the DV
Write a suitable one-tailed and two-tailed hypothesis using the three key ingredients.

25. Hypothesis Writing – Practice, Practice, Practice
Do we lose our memory as we get older?
IV = Age (Young vs. Old)
DV = Memory (No. of words remembered from a list of 20?)
Older participants (those who are 65+) will remember significantly less words (from a list of 20) in comparison to younger participants (those who are 11-18).
Does it contain our three key ingredients?

26. Hypothesis Writing – Practice, Practice, Practice

27. Strong Foundations 1) Research Methods LIVE!
2) Explore Inferential Statistics
3) Using your Year 1 stuff to NAIL issues and debates
LUNCH
4) Let’s get ready for Year 2 Biopsychology
5) Raising your game in Year 2

28. Today’s Resources & Any Questions
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