1. Forecast Capability for Early Warning:
CPC Products, Plans and Perspective
Jon Gottschalck1 and Augustin Vintzileos2
1 Operational Prediction Branch
NOAA / NWS / Climate Prediction Center
2 Univ. of Maryland
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
NIHHIS Workshop, July
El Paso, TX
Outline:
1. Review of current CPC heat related products and services
2. Status of experimental Week-2 excessive heat event forecast tools
3. Perspective on excessive heat predictions beyond Week-2

2. Current Heat Related Products
(1) Much above normal temperatures
Expectations that temperatures will approach or exceed those representing the top 1/8 of historical range
(2) Excessive heat
Expectations that the combined effects of temperature and humidity may reach heat indices greater than 105F

3. Current Heat Related Products
Systematically migrating current deterministic outlook to probabilistic form for Days 8-14
Better and more frequent lead time for potential low probability, but high impact events
Slight, moderate or high risk highlighted regions

4. Current Heat Related Products
Example outlook
Days 6-10 and 8-14 maximum heat index (HI) outlook
Released daily from April 1st through September 30th
Dashed contours depict threshold for the above normal tercile maximum heat index
Shading represents the probability that this threshold will be exceeded during period
Other information available in this outlook suite includes:
1. Outlook maps for probabilities for max HI exceeding 90F, 95F, 100F, 105F, 110F,115F
2. Probabilities for mean HI exceeding 85F, 90F, or 95F for 3 days, 2 days or 1 day

5. Week-2 Excessive Heat Event Tools
Work led by Augustin Vintzileos – University of Maryland ESSIC
Development of tools to better inform the Week-2 U.S. Hazards Outlook and investigate what may be possible at Week 3-4 leads
Excessive heat days are defined based on heat index and an excessive heat event is defined as at least two consecutive days exceeding a given percentile threshold (90%, 95%)
Variation by season and location are included in the metric
Tools will allow better temporal resolution of information and use the latest state of the art datasets
Internal evaluation of these new tools are being conducted by forecasters at CPC during the summer of 2016

6. Week-2 Excessive Heat Event Tools
Probability of excessive heat event exceeding the 95th percentile
Start day in Week-2 of excessive heat event
Excessive heat event duration in days

7. Week 3-4 Information and Plans
Experimental since September 2015
Probability of two week mean temperatures being above or below normal

8. Week 3-4 Information and Plans
The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) has funded work at CPC
Explore and document the scientific basis for excessive heat event outlooks at Weeks 3-4
Planned work includes (1) extension of ongoing Week-2 methods and (2) investigation of statistical and hybrid methods
Goal is to work toward an experimental Week 3-4 excessive heat outlook
7/1-7/15
Excessive Heat Event (HI > 95th percentile)
High Risk (60%)
Moderate Risk (40%)
Slight Risk (20%)

9. Seasonal Excessive Heat Predictability?
CPC prepares seasonal temp outlooks
Outlooks are for above, below or near average categories of mean 3-month temperature
No excessive heat event information operationally prepared
Climatology
Outlook shift

10. Seasonal Excessive Heat Predictability?
Excessive heat prediction information (character of the season or characteristics within the season) is an area of active research
# extreme days within season;
Hamilton et al. (2012); Pepler et al. (2015)
Monthly/seasonal extremes; Becker et al. (2013)

11. Summary
CPC produces operational outlooks targeting excessive heat which includes information as part of the U.S. Hazards Outlook and Week-2 heat index products
CPC developing improved forecast tools targeting excessive heat events in Week-2 to support U.S. Hazards Outlook
CPC has funding support for research to work towards the development of a prototype excessive heat event outlook for the Week 3-4 period if science supports
Prediction of seasonal excessive heat information is an area of active research

12. Thank you for your attention
Comments or questions?

13. Prospects for Subseasonal Heat Predictions
Predictable, slow varying, climate oscillations such as tropical variability (e.g. MJO)
Modulate the probability of occurrence of extreme weather events
Modulate probability of occurrence of critical impacts including the heat- health relationship
An important example:
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) can impact the pattern of high and low pressure in the Extratropics and can result in high impact events
Courtesy: Augustin Vintzileos – University of Maryland ESSIC