1. First VarSITI General Symposium June 6-10, 2016, Albena, Bulgaria
Identification of coronal origins of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections using plasma ion composition data
V.Slemzin 1, D.Rodkin 1, F. Goryaev1, Yu.Shugay 2, I.Veselovsky 2, 3
1 P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow, Russia
2 Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
3 Space Research Institute (IKI) RAS, Moscow, Russia

2. Goals of the study
Statistical analysis parameters of ICMEs and spontaneous solar activity in Cycle 24. Comparison with that of Cycle 23.
Formation of the event list for Cycle 24 containing parameters of ICMEs including ion composition data and parameters of associated CMEs and flares.
Development of a model to predict the ICME ion charge states based on parameters of their coronal sources. 2

3. Data catalogs for Cycle 24 used in the study
ICME:
Richardson&Cane list – (ref R&C)
Hess&Zhang GMU list – (ref GMU)
CME:
CACTUS (COR 2 STEREO-A, B, LASCO)
CDAW LASCO
Flares:
Solar Demon May 2010 – c.t.
SPHINX flare catalog Feb – Nov 2009
GOES X-ray flares ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/space-weather/solar-data/solar-features/solar-flares/x-rays/goes/xrs/
ACE/SWICS ion charge state data for Cycle 24
The analyzed period
No data
09.11 – 06.12 3

4. Statistics of ICMEs and solar activity in Cycle 24
Сorrelations between year numbers of events
Cycle 24
ICME-CME
ICME-Flares 0.56
Cycle 23
ICME-CME
ICME-Flares 0.74
R&C: 169 ICMEs, 133 MC(78%); GMU: 65 ICMEs, 47 MC
R&C: 307 ICMEs, 196 MC (63%)
15422 CME, flares
11904 CME, flares 4

5. ICME types and geoefficiency in Cycle 24 (GMU list)
MC – 70%
(negative)
Total 65 ICMEs MC – 47 events 5

6. Ion charge state distributions in ICMEs at 2010-2012
C6/C O7/O QFe
1 – MC
2 – MC+SH
3 - +CIR
4 – SH
5 - +flank CME
6 – ICME like
7 – range for
23d cycle
(Gopalswamy et al. 2013;
von Steiger Springer book, 2008)
parameter
Min-max (non-MC)
Min-max (MC)
Cyc 23
range Vp
QFe
8.27– 15.69
>12
C6/C5
0.21 – 3.14
0.13 – 12.38
3 - 12
O7/O6
0.16 – 1.43
0.06 – 1.84
0.6 – 1.2
Fe/O
0.15 – 0.44
>0.24
The temperature-dependent parameters QFe, C6/C5 and O7/O8 in Cycle 24 vary in larger limits than in Cycle 23 due to values in minimum of Cycle 24 were lower. Max values were well correspond to that of Cycle 23. 6

7. Identification of ICME’s coronal sources
Dst
Ballistic approximation
Transit time
LSE / <VCME> ± 12h
MacNeice et al. Space Weather, 2011
Calculated time slots for CMEs and flares: 3 flares and CMEs from AR 11261
Partial halo
Halo
Halo 7

8. Selection of the associated CMEs and flares
CME selection procedure:
STA - CME at East limb
STB – CME at West limb
Simultaneous appearance within 1h
Latitudinal contours should cross the equatorial plane
Coronal sources of ICMEs of August 5 – 6, 2011
CME: Stereo-A :36UT STB :00UT LASCO :12UT
2016
2009
2010
2011
2012
Flares: :19-06:48 M :17-14:10 M :41-04:04 M93
211 A
M M M9
Flare selection procedure:
Peak <1h before the CME 8

9. ICME/source list for
Total ICME
ICME/CME (86% identified)
ICME/CME/Flare 30
for MC
Comparison with GMU ICME list of Phillip Hess & Jie Zhang for 2010 – 2012
From 33 ICME events 15 identifications coincide, 18 events are absent in R&C, 46 events absent in GMU list
Content of the extended ICME/source list
ICME CME Flares (GOES) MC id
all parameters from R&C list dt STA, STB dt peak
Min/max, average C6/C5, O7/O6, Qfe Vcme STA, STB flare class, max flux
Min/max Fe/O Pa STA, STB pw STA, STB 9

10. Development of a model to predict the ICME ion charge states using coronal source parameters
Flare 08/02 05: :48UT
GOES temperature
of the flare
Initial data for modeling:
Ne, Te = f(R,t)
V(R,t), dV/dt
atomic constants
(recombination, ionization)
plasma condition – LTE
Time
Teff , MK
ne , cm^(-3)
05:32
9.12
1.53E9
05:44
7.31
2.48E9
05:50
7.19
2.40E9
Diagnostics by EUV lines of AIA
Kinematics
Loops 4-5 10

11. Basic principles of the model
Earth
Distance from the solar surface, Rsun
Sun
Ne ~5.108 cm
EUV observations
conductive cooling
radiative cooling
expansion cooling (adiabatic)
rec >> exp
Te~ 3 MK MK MK
maxQFe=
recomb < exp
Collisionless plasma
acceleration
loop rize- up
CME seen in coronagraph
ICME 11
LTE
Freeze-in region
heating?

12. Simulation of the ICME of 5-6 August 2011
Ne(0.1R)= cm-3
V CME =711 km/s
In situ
<Qfe> ≈ 13 12

13. Variation of the ICME ion charge state due to interaction of transient and high-speed flows in the corona
ICME1
Recurrent HSS from CH
ICME2 Vp
|B| Np
AR 1514
Disappearance of an ICME signatures due to interaction of transient flow with HSS from CH
AR far from CH
AR close to CH
AR 1493 13

14. Decrease of ion charge state due to interaction between flows in the corona
ICME1
ICME2 14

15. Conclusions
Analysis of statistics of ICME and sporadic solar activity events in has shown that the year frequency of ICMEs in Cycle 24 is in 40% lower than in Cycle 23. The total number of CMEs is higher, the number of X-ray flares is lower in Cycle 24 than in Cycle 23. Correlation of the ICMEs year frequencies with that of CMEs and flares in Cycle 24 decreased.
In Cycle 24 the range between minimum and maximum numbers of peak values for the temperature-dependent ion charge ratios <C6/C5>, <O7/O6> and <QFe> in ICMEs are wider than in Cycle 23 due to extremely weak solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24.
From 79 ICMEs contained in the R&C ICME list for the period , 68 events have been associated with CMEs from which 55 events were associated with flares (25 MC and 30 non- MC). The ion charge state parameters for these cases have been analyzed.
The R&C ICME list for (68 events) has been supplemented with the ion charge state data and parameters of the identified coronal sources (CMEs and flares). 15

16. 5. The theoretical model of forming the ICME ion charge state for minor ions (O,C, Fe) in the corona has been developed. For several tested events estimations by the model are well agreed with measurements.
6. The temperature-dependent ICME ion parameters O7+/O6+ and QFe occurred to be well correlated with the flare flux which confirms their dependence on the source conditions included into the model. The found dependences are similar to that found earlier in Cycle 23.
7. When the parent active region responsible for the CME is located nearby a CH, interaction of the transient flow with HSS flow from CH may influence on signatures of ICME. This effect can be produced by inclination of CME (Gopalswamy et al. 2009) or reconnection between magnetic fields of AR and CH followed by mixture of their plasma fluxes. 16

17. Thank you for your attention
Solar transient in the Miracle book. XVI century