1. U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2015
Dr. Suzanne Thornsbury and
Hodan Farah Wells
U.S. Dry Bean Convention
Boston, MA
July 21, 2015
Dr. Suzanne Thornsbury and
Hodan Farah Wells
U.S. Dry Bean Convention
Chicago, IL
July 30, 2013
The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of USDA or the Economic
Research Service.

2. U.S. Production

3. 2014 U.S. Dry Bean Crop at a Glance
Production 29 million cwt
Area planted million acres
Area harvested 1.67 million acres
Yield lbs./acre
Value of production $ million
Larger crop than in 2013:
Area planted and harvested, up 30 percent
Yields, almost 8 percent smaller
Total production, up almost 19 percent
Larger crop than 2013 (up 18%) but still below 3 billion pounds.
The 2015 area planted is up slightly (1%) to million acres.
Yields off 8%. After being closer to 1900 lbs/acre the last 2 years (2012 and 2013), average yields fell back to 1725 lbs/acre.

4. U.S. Dry Beans: Acres Harvested
2015f:
Harvested acres decrease 1%
Trend,
Talk about some state-level changes here. Where are acres down?
Trend,
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

5. Variability in U.S. Dry Bean Acres Harvested
Average
COV
Million acres
1960s
1.41
0.058
1970s
1.40
0.060
1980s
1.62
0.193
1990s
1.82
0.088
2000s
1.46
0.110
1.54
0.184
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

6. U.S. Dry Bean Production 2015f: increase 3%
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

7. U.S. Dry Bean Average Yield
2015f: increase 5%
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

8. Crop Progress: Emergence 2015
Data Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, State Crop Progress and Condition Report.

9. Ratio of Average Dry Bean Price to Corn Price
Million acres
Percent
2015f: 1.71 mill. acres
Data Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service (price ratio) and USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (acres planted).

10. 2015f U.S. Dry Bean Crop at a Glance
Production 30 million cwt
Area planted million acres
Area harvested 1.66 million acres
Yield lbs./acre
Early value of production estimates – under $1 billion due to lower prices, but still in the $900 – 950 million range.

11. World Production and U.S. Trade

12. World Dry Bean Production, 1970-2013
To give you some idea of how production has grown and shifted among countries over time.
Other countries include many African nations: Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Cameroon, Angola. But also North Korea, Nicaragua and Iran.
Excludes chickpeas, cowpeas, and broad beans.
Data Source: United Nations, Food and Agricultural Organization, FAOSTAT.

13. U.S. Dry Beans: Global Integration, 1970-2014
Data Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

14. U.S. Dry Bean Exports: Top 10 Markets, 2014/15*
Sept-May
exports to top 10 markets 79% of total YTD
Total = 803 million pounds for all markets
* September 2014 – May 2015
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 11

15. U.S. Dry Bean Imports: 2005/06-2014/15
Million lbs.
Need to identify which countries make up most of “other” category.
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

16. ERS Vegetable and Pulses Trade Data by Commodity

17. ERS Supply and Use Tables

18. ERS Supply and Use Tables by Class
Beginning in 2015, ERS now publishes Supply and Utilization tables for Dry Beans by class (annual data back to 1980)
Vegetable and Pulses Yearbook Tables (released annually; last release March 20, 2015)
Pinto
Garbanzo
Navy
Small White
Great Northern
Small Red
Black
Pink
Lima (dry)
Other
Red Kidney (all)

19. S&U: Dry Beans (supply)
Year
Production
Imports
Beginning Stocks
Total
--Million lbs--
1980s
2357 59
1171
3587
1990s
2911 86
1388
4385
2000s
2440
232
1158
3830
2748
292
1063
4103
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

20. S&U: Dry Beans (utilization)
Year
Exports
Seed Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
--Million lbs--
1980s
887 92
1156
1452
1990s
857 97
1466
1965
2000s
742 83
1082
1923
1005 82
1062
1954
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

21. 2012 Loss-Adjusted Food Availability Diet Compared with 2010 DGA Recommendations
Distinct but related data series on food and nutrient availability for consumption. The data serve as proxies for actual consumption at the national level.
Food availability = supply and utilization tables with 1-2 year lag (data are now updated through 2012). These data are the foundation for the other two series.
Loss-adjusted food availability subtracts the estimated amount of food lost due to spoilage and other losses in the marketing system. The loss-adjusted data are converted from pounds per capita per year into daily per capita food intake (i.e. cups/day).

22. Dry Beans by Class

23. Dry Bean Crop by Class
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

24. U.S. Pinto Beans: Domestic Utilization
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

25. U.S. Pinto Beans: Production and Dealer Price*
2015f: production increase 15%
Million cwt
$/cwt
* Northeast Colorado Data Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production); USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (prices).

26. U.S. Pinto Beans: Value of Production
2014/15 YTD: ND/MN
Grower
price decrease 30%
Trend
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

27. U.S. Navy Beans: Production and Dealer Price*
$/cwt
Million cwt.
Corelation between production and dealer price,
1990s -60%
2000s -20% %
* Michigan Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production) and USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service (prices).

28. U.S. Navy Beans: Trade Million lbs. In Argentina
Of the 20% of the white alubia beans now in the bin, the majority are under-sized.
* September 2014 – May 2015
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

29. U.S. Black Beans: Domestic Utilization
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

30. U.S. Black Beans: Production and Dealer Price*
Million cwt
$/cwt .
* Michigan Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production) and USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service (prices).

31. U.S. Black Beans: Share of Exports to Mexico*
*2014/15 is ERS estimate based on year-to-date trade
Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 9

32. U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Domestic Utilization
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

33. U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Area Seeded & Share Harvested
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

34. U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Yield
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

35. U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Yield (rolling 3-year average) 1987-2014
Great Northern
Pinto
Black
Garbanzo
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

36. U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Balance of Trade, 1991/92 – 2014/15*
Overall imports are up about 12 % over the previous year. (Sept-May). Canada remains the major supplier and imports from Canada have increased 25% over same period the previous year. Mexico is second largest supplier.
*2014/15 is ERS estimate based on year-to-date trade
Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 9

37. U.S. Garbanzo Bean Exports: 2009/10-2014/15*
Million lbs.
Year-to-date total exports down 22% .
Spain year-to-date (2014/15) is showing US exports decreasing, but 2015 production in Spain is expected to be down due to dry weather conditions. According to FAS, poor weather conditions have resulted in significantly lower production expectation MY2015/16, despite the higher plantings for the non-irrigated pulses and 90% of garbanzo acres are not irrigated. This creates opportunities for U.S. pulses exports to Spain, although they will continue to face competition from other suppliers such as Canada, Mexico and Argentina
*ERS estimate based on year-to-date trade (September – May)
Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census.

38. Grower Prices

39. Average Grower Price, All Beans
Annual average price
Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

40. U.S. Dry Beans, All: Monthly Grower Prices
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2014/15 YTD: price decrease 15%
$29.34
$29.57
$43.31
$37.93
$38.13
$33.00
Sept-May
These are prices YTD (Sept – June)
These are monthly prices so start to pick up some of the intra-year variability
2013/14
2014/15
Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service 6

41. Grower Prices Variety (Location) 2013/14* 2014/15* Percent change
Pinto (ND/MN)
33.59
23.37
-30
Navy (peas beans) (MI)
41.71 29
Black (MI)
41.90
35.49
-15
Light red kidney (NE/CO)
52.90
48.18 -9
Dark red kidney (MN/WI)
56.89
56.5 -1
Garbanzo (WA/ID)
30.05
29.29
-2.5
Great Northern (NE/WY)
49.44 35
-29
Small Red (WA/ID)
39.93
39.63
Pink (WA/ID)
39.61
39.5
* September - June
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service.

42. Summary 2014 crop: 2015 crop: 2014/15 prices:
Larger crop than in 2013:
Area planted and harvested, up 30 percent
Yields, almost 8 percent smaller
Total production, up almost 19 percent
2015 crop:
Slightly larger crop than in 2014:
Production 30 million cwt
Acreage similar, but increased yields
2014/15 prices:
Corn price projections similar to previous year
Bean price projections down, but varies by class

43. Thank you http://www.ers.usda.gov/