1. Climate change, land use planning and the EU Floods Directive: Lessons from the Schelde
Katrien Debeuckelaere
Legal Advisor, Land Use Planning, Flemish Region
Gretta Goldenman
Director, Milieu Ltd, Environmental Law & Policy, Brussels
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2. Outline of presentation
Impacts of climate change on flood risk in Europe
Climate change & the EU Floods Directive
Land use planning as an instrument for bringing together flood risk management & nature protection
Case study of the Schelde River
Lessons learned

3. Europe is concerned about floods
Over 100 major damaging floods in Europe between 1998 & 2004
Danube (2002)
Elbe (2002)
Impacts include
700 deaths + half a million people displaced
Over €25 billion in insured economic losses
Trend continues
Czech Republic & Romania (2010)

4. Climate change impacts predicted for Europe
More rain in northwestern Europe, less rain in southern Europe
Over most mid- & high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere flood magnitude & frequency likely (66-90% probability) to increase in most regions, & low flows likely to decrease in most regions (IPCC, 2001)
More extreme precipitation events
Not yet possible to analyse climate change impacts on water resources at catchment scale (limited resolution of current CC simulations - grids 200 km2)

5. Climate change & flood risk
If precipitation indeed increases as predicted, risk of floods will increase five-fold in some places…
Palmer & Raisanen prediction that rising levels of CO2 will increase probability of extremely high seasonal precipitation in the winter over Europe by two to five times over the next 50 to 100 years.
Map showing the number of times more likely it is that a European winter will be extremely wet in 50 to 100 years, compared with today. Source: Palmer and Räisänen (2002).
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6. EU Floods Directive
Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks
applies to all inland waters & coastal waters across the EU territory
Member States required to
carry out preliminary flood risk assessments by 2011
prepare flood risk maps by 2013
develop flood risk management plans focused on prevention, protection & preparedness by 2015
facilitate public participation in this process

7. EU Floods Directive (2) Closely linked to Water Framework Directive
Requires coordination with e.g. river basin management planning & public participation procedures in their preparation
Coordination required for shared river basins, including with third counties
MS must not undertake measures that would increase flood risk in neighbouring countries

8. EU Floods Directive (3)
Aim: to reduce & manage the risks that floods pose to human health, environment, cultural heritage & economic activity
Recognises:
climate change as long-term risk factor
importance of sustainable land use in planning for flood risk prevention & management

9. Land use planning
Land use planning as an instrument for bringing together flood risk management & nature protection
The Schelde

10. Key dates for the Schelde
1953 flood
1976 flood – impetus for Sigma
1977 – Sigma Plan (focus on dikes)
2005 – Sigma Plan revised

11. Wintam

13. Sigma Plan revised
Climate change – rise of sea level – 1/70 years a flood – 1/lifetime – safety
Opportunity to combine flood prevention/safety – shipping - nature protection - recreation
SEA and CBA for SIGMA Plan

14. Land use planning Framework
Spatial structure plan for Flanders is a Policy plan
Implementation by Land-use plans - Spatial Implementation Plan – defines zoning

15. Spatial Structure Plan → Spatial Implementation Plan
Designation of and development prospects for the natural structure
Important role of the Schelde river as an important part of the natural structure
Sigma Plan + Spatial Structure Plan
Spatial Implementation Plan

17. Kruibeke-Bazel-Rupelmonde
Part of original Sigma Plan
600 hectares
Spatial implementation plan needed for a flood control area – wetlands – reduced tidal area - dike
Protection against floods
Development of nature: mudflats and salt marshes;
Recreation;
Agriculture.
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18. Kies 'Beeld > Koptekst en voettekst' om de voettekst in te voegen

20. Prosperpolder Sigma Plan revised
Longterm vision Schelde estuary (co-operation Flanders – Netherlands-) Hedwige polder – total 465 hectares
Spatial implementation plan needed for an intertidal area – 170 hectares
Protection against floods
Protection and development of nature: mudflats and salt marshes;
Recreation;
Agriculture.

22. Instruments Policy plan: Spatial structure plan Sigma plan
Land use plan
Expropriation
Social plan
Landbank
Natureplan –SEA
CBA …
At project level: permits
implement Habitat directive – Natura 2000 network
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23. Who is involved Several administrations at regional level
Flanders and the Netherlands: co-operation
Several communes
Civil society eg nature protection, farmers,..
Individual stakeholders

24. Lessons – Climate change
Plans → adaptable: Sigma plan → revision
New research results → implementation
Participation
Co-operation between administrations and cross-border
Land use plan is one of several instruments
Planningsystems in EU differ

25. Lessons – EU Floods Directive
Planning needs to be at regional as well as at national & local levels
The process takes time
Stakeholder participation helps, but there will be conflicts
Schelde case shows how flood risk assessment helps make the case for spending public funds on prevention & mitigation
Potential win-win situation for nature protection
In the end, political will essential

26. Thank you