1. Approach… Current thoughts of the Technical Leaders Group
Presented to the Collaborative Stakeholder Group, 2nd July 2014, Oparure Marae, Te Kuiti

3. Healthy Rivers Policy Process
Approach – as the TLG see it
Healthy Rivers Policy Process
Desired Values
Setting Attribute Levels
Water quality (N, P, Sed., bacteria) consistent with Desired Values
Scenario Analysis – looking at future options for Limits on point and non-point losses from land
Integrated assessment across Values to provide CSG with social, economic, cultural & ecological analysis
deliberations
CSG
CSG Focus Statement
e.g., safe to swim, take food, provide well being)
Can be ‘alternative’ detail below that
CSG outcomes
Assess options against Values & risk
Consensus?
Seek further scenarios?
TLG, using:
Guidelines (e.g., NOF)
Existing information
Experts input
TLG, using experts for:
Predictive modelling
Non-market valuation studies

4. Desired Values are affected by many things – it’s complicated

5. Desired Values – A task for the CSG
Draft Focus Statement from CSG
“To come up with limits, timelines and practical options for managing contaminant discharges into the Waikato and Waipa catchments to ensure they are safe to swim in and take food from, support healthy biodiversity and provide for social, economic and cultural wellbeing”
Some questions lie beneath that. For example:
Values (and therefore attribute limits) met everywhere and all of the time? Or some places, some of the time? Or some combination thereof?
At what spatial scale do limits on contaminant losses from land apply? Can there be “overs and unders” in sub-catchments
Where water quality is “better than it needs to be,” can it decline?
The TLG envisages evaluating the effects of these options during Scenario Analysis

6. Values and Attribute Limits need to recognise system connectedness
“Look after the veins that feed the awa and you will look after the awa itself” Kaumatua, quoted in the WRISS
“Never forget gravity – water flows downhill” GE Likens
“Rivers are a function of their catchments” HBN Hynes

7. Sub-catchments – TLG comment
Sub-catchments (or “Water management units” - WMUs) could be many or few
Keep It Simple principle should apply – minimum number needed
Number needed comes back to:
Desired Values,
Associated Attribute levels and
Spatial variation in these
Ability of policy to differentiate spatial variation yet not add unnecessary complexity
Perhaps 4 WMUs? – Waipa and Upper, Middle and Lower Waikato?

8. Example of stepping-through the process
Value: Swimmable
Attribute: Bacteria (E.coli/100ml, 95th percentile)
Attribute Levels: Excellent (<55), Satisfactory (55 – 550), Unsatisfactory (>550)
Current State: % samples in following ‘swimmable’ categories
Excellent
Satisfactory
Unsatisfactory
Upper Waikato
40%
60% 0%
Waipa
100%
Lower Waikato
20%
80%
Scenario Analysis: Model options for reducing faecal bacteria input to waters – wastewater treatment, denying stock access to streams, etc.

9. Scenario Analysis - predictive models, a window on the future
Computer models are a well-used and trusted analytical tool
Used in natural sciences, medicine, engineering, accounting, economics, etc.
Provide predictions of the future – can play the ‘what if..?’ game
Models collect, connect and apply expert knowledge
They need good data as input, and often use data to test validity of output
Need to choose models that are ‘fit for purpose’ – that answer the question posed
They are not perfect and need careful interpretation

10. In Summary, the Approach:
Is sequential rather than simultaneous (mostly)
Is iterative rather than once-through
Needs more technical work on defining limits to meet CSG Values
Requires more scenario modelling, targeted to the needs of the CSG
Is complex, requires the ‘bringing together’ of diverse technical work across market and non-market values to provide a clear options analysis
Will require decisions to be made where uncertainty exists
Will take time so let’s get cracking!

11. Sources of Information
Waikato River Independent Scoping Study
Waikato Regional Council website