1. Trends and Forecasting of Tourism:
Where we’re at. Where we’re going?
Sponsored by
Moderator:
Kate Fox, Executive Director, Destination Salem
Panelists:
Kelsey Waite, Business Development Executive, Destinations – STR
Tony D’Agostino, Research Director, Massachusetts Office of Travel & Tourism

2. Who is considered a traveler???
One who travels 50 or more miles one way from his/her home or stays overnight (paid)
A TRAVELER ….count as Volume v. count as Spending

3. Economic Impact of Travel to MA, CY2015

4. Historic Direct Spending in Mass, CYs 2000-2015
Travel Price Inflation and Population growth

5. Ranking of States by Economic Impact, 2014
$$ Millions
California
124,193.5
Florida
85,274.6
Texas
65,960.7
New York
65,334.1
Illinois
36,345.9
Nevada
33,518.7
Georgia
26,656.1
Pennsylvania
24,442.5
Virginia
22,913.6
North Carolina
22,148.6
Hawaii
20,803.9
New Jersey
20,414.6
Massachusetts (13th)
19,500.7

6. Travel Spending by Domestic/Int’l and Sub-Industry
3rd Largest ????
2015 Travel Expenditures
Domestic
International
Total
($ Millions)
% of total 
% of Total 
Public Transportation
$5,693.7
32.6%
$305.3
11.1%
$5,999.3
Auto Transportation
$2,271.2
13.0%
$37.7
1.4%
$2,309.1
Lodging
$3,934.2
22.5%
$1,059.4
38.5%
$4,993.9
Foodservice
$3,495.1
20.0%
$529.4
19.3%
$4,024.8
Entertainment & Recreation
991.8
5.7%
$210.5
7.7%
$1,202.3
General Retail Trade
1,098.7
6.3%
$606.1
22.1%
$1,704.9
$17,484.7
$2,748.5
$20,234.3

7. Jobs Supported by Sub Industries total 135,000!
Full, part, seasonal jobs

8. October is Strongest Month Monthly KPI’s – Essex County, MA Jan – Dec 2016
Month with the largest

9. Essex County, MA - Key Statistics YTD December 2016
% Change
Hotels 61
Room Supply 2 mil 1.3%
Room Demand 1.4 mil -1.9%
Occupancy 68% %
ADR $ %
RevPAR $ %
Room Revenue $162.5 mil 1.7%

10. Look into
Haunted Happening &
Topsfield Fair

11. October Rooms Sold and Rooms Revenue October 2010-2016 Essex County, MA

12. Topsfield Fair Occupancy for First Weekend in October – 2nd Weekend Essex County, MA

13. Group Business

14. Essex County, MA Monthly Group Occupancy 2016

15. Essex County, MA Monthly Group Occupancy 2010 Through 2016

16. Essex County, MA Actual ADR ($) by Customer Segment Year End 2010 - 2016

17. Competitive Overview

18. North of Boston – Higher than Total US 2016 Year End Occupancy Essex County, MA – Boston, MA Market – Cape Cod/SE Mass Tract – Plymouth County, MA – Total US

19. Lowest ADR for Essex County 2016 Year End ADR Essex County, MA – Boston, MA Market – Cape Cod/SE Mass Tract – Plymouth County, MA – Total US

20. RevPAR is keeping up with Total US 2016 Year End RevPAR Essex County, MA – Boston, MA Market – Cape Cod/SE Mass Tract – Plymouth County, MA – Total US

21. Airbnb

22. US Hotel and Airbnb ADR July 2016, 12-Month Moving Average

23. Airbnb’s Share of Total Supply and Demand (Hotels + Airbnb) July 2016, 12-Month Moving Average

24. Forecast 2016, 2017 and 2018

25. Massachusetts's Market Share of all U. S
Massachusetts's Market Share of all U.S. Domestic Travel Expenditures ,
Loss M/S = Lost $$

26. Massachusetts's Market Share of U. S
Massachusetts's Market Share of U.S. International Travel Expenditures ,
Loss M/S= Lost $$

27. Mass …other travel related data, 2016 v. 2015
Mass STATE Rooms Occupancy Collections… %
Mass LOCAL Rooms Occupancy Collections… %
Mass STATE MEALS …………………………………… %
Mass LOCAL MEALS…………………………………… %
LIA International A/D………………………………..… %
LIA Domestic A/D……………………..………………… %

28. Massachusetts and U.S. …volume data , 2016
Domestic Volume to MA through July, 2016
Up 3%
International Volume to U.S. through July, 2016
Total International …Down 2.0%
Canada …Down 6.7%
Western Europe …Down 8.7%

29. Outlook Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Boston, MA – Market Level Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2017F – 2018F
Outlook
2017
Forecast
2018
Supply
1.7%
2.9%
Demand
1.6%
2.5%
Occupancy
-0.2%
-0.4%
ADR
2.7%
RevPAR
2.3%
Also expecting Revenue to increase 4.3% in 2017, and 5.3% in 2018.

30. The End !

32. EXTRA SLIDES

33. Haunted Happenings October Weekday and Weekend 2010 – 2016 Essex County, MA

34. Largest Lodging Companies by Rooms/Listings Less Unavailable, Shared Rooms, Private Rooms and Large Listings

35. Incoming Properties Essex County, MA Pipeline as of January 2017
Lexington Collection Hotel
Haverhill
60 Rooms
Unnamed Hotel
Salem
100 Rooms
Unnamed Boutique Hotel
Newburyport
86 Rooms
Salem Waterfront Hotel
Conference Center
32 Rooms
Hampton Inn Salem
112 Rooms
Open Date: May 2018

36. 2017 Year End RevPAR Forecast Top 25 US Markets, Nov 2016 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically)
Houston, TX
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
Miami-Hialeah, FL
Atlanta, GA
New York, NY
Boston, MA
Chicago, IL
Dallas, TX
Denver, CO
Detroit, MI
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI
Nashville, TN
New Orleans, LA
Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA
Oahu Island, HI
Orlando, FL
Philadelphia, PA-NJ
Phoenix, AZ
San Diego, CA
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA
Seattle, WA
St. Louis, MO-IL
Tampa, FL
Washington, D.C.