1. Analytical Methods
Chapter 6
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2. Introduction
Thompson says that for analysts to exhibit analytical rigor, they should:
Make accurate judgments
Be clear
Be insightful, timely and relevant
Highlight trends over time (be consistent)
Today great emphasis is placed on three key areas:
Critical Thinking
Collaboration
Structured Analytical Techniques
©2013, Taylor & Francis

3. Critical Thinking
That mode of thinking — about any subject, content, or problem — in which the thinker improves the quality of his or her thinking by skillfully analyzing, assessing, and reconstructing it.
It cannot be developed overnight
The DIA’s “Select Intellectual Standards”
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4. Collaboration
The ODNI has committed itself to developing a “responsibility to provide” culture rather than one based on “need to know”
Intellipedia
A classified, collaborative tool based on Internet and wiki technology
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5. Structured Analytical Techniques
Organized, explicit methods for analyzing information
Key Assumptions Check
Articulating and reviewing key assumptions throughout the analytical process
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
Considering a wide range of possible hypotheses rather than merely the favorite
Scenarios
Considering many possible futures
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6. Structured Analytical Techniques
Contrarian Methods
Forces people to consider possibilities that, up to that point, might have been rejected; causes individuals to modify their positions once other lines of thought are considered.
Devil’s advocacy
Someone who argues a point he may not believe in strictly for the sake of argument
Team A/Team B
Each side of an argument drafts up an analysis in which each group puts forth its strongest arguments for why its position is correct
High-Impact/Low-Probability
Assesses possible events that have a low probability of occurring but would be catastrophic if they did
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7. Analytical Software
Analysts use specially designed programs to assist them with their difficult and complex duties i2
Visual Analytics
Palantir
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8. Conclusion Most intelligence failures have been failures of analysis
The IC today realizes that it has to do a better job of analyzing the information
With hard work, collaboration, and information sharing, it is possible to improve the quality of analytical products
We can expect to see the continued development and testing of methods as well as their use in the IC.
©2013, Taylor & Francis