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UIUC RCMP Fall 2016 Miller Industries Inc., Presented, November 10, 2016 Updated December 1, 2016 -Tongsu (Serena) Peng & David Lee hi.

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Presentation on theme: "UIUC RCMP Fall 2016 Miller Industries Inc., Presented, November 10, 2016 Updated December 1, 2016 -Tongsu (Serena) Peng & David Lee hi."— Presentation transcript:

1 UIUC RCMP Fall 2016 Miller Industries Inc., Presented, November 10, 2016 Updated December 1, 2016 -Tongsu (Serena) Peng & David Lee hi

2 Current Holdings May 2016 Spring 2016
RCMP Presentation to Buy 400 shares of $20.59 May 2016 DCF Value: $24.36 Comparable Valuation: $22.39 Implied Price: $23.38 November 9, 2016 Current Price: $23.10 Real Client Managed Portfolio

3 Agenda Company Summary External Drivers Relative Stock Market Prospect
Company Overview Management Assertions Porter’s 5 Forces Analysis SWOT Analysis Business Cycle Overview External Drivers Macroeconomic Drivers Industry Drivers Relative Stock Market Prospect Financial Analysis (DuPont ROE) Comparable Valuation DCF Analysis Recommendation NYSE:MLR – $23.10 Market Cap – $262.1m EV/EBITDA – 7.4 Trailing P/E – 15.4 Real Client Managed Portfolio

4 Company Overview Recent News Key Executive Officer Profile
Miller Industries Inc. (NYSE:MLR) Founded in 1994 in Ooltewah, Tennessee Operations in Tennessee and Pennsylvania Foreign manufacturing in France and UK MLR is the world’s largest Towing & Recovery Equipment Manufacturer Develop and acquire well-recognized brands within industry Diversified line of products Perpetuates both internal growth and acquisition of complementary products Sells products globally through independent distributors Presence in the US, Canada, Mexico, Europe, Pacific Rim, Middle East, South America, and Africa Voting to elect new management led to the election of five new executives for a term of one year Agreements regarding executive compensation remain unchanged Firm announced retirement of VP, CFO, and Treasurer J. Vincent Mish and appointed former VP and Controller in Mr. Mish’s place Regulatory concerns regarding manufacture of products containing minerals tin, tungsten, tantalum and gold remain on-going Firm continues to increase sales growth as economic conditions improve Recent News Key Executive Officer Profile J. Vincent Mish, CPA Served as CFO and Treasurer from 1994 Appointed Executive VP in 2002, having served as President of Financial Services Group since September 1996 Served from 1987 to 1994 as VP and Treasurer of Flow Measurement Deborah Whitmire Served as VP and Corporate Controller since 2014 Previously held Corporate Controller from 2005 Director of Finance position from Miller Accounting Manager from , and Controller from 1997 to 2000 Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Company 10K – 2015, Yahoo Finance

5 2016 Quarterly Performance
March 31, 2016 – Q1 June 30, 2016 – Q2 September 30, 2016 – Q3 Net sales $148.8m, 17.4% increase from prior year Net sales $156.1m, 3.0% increase from prior year Net Sales $147.6m, 17.0% increase from prior year Net income $3.4m, $0.30 per diluted share Net income $6.6m, $0.58 per diluted share Net income $3.2m, $0.28 per diluted share Gross profit $13.0m, 8.7% of sales Gross profit $19.0m, 12.2% of sales Gross profit $17.1m, 11.6% of sales SG&A $8.0m, 5.4% of sales SG&A $8.3m, 5.3% of sales SG&A $8.5m, 5.8% of sales Quarterly dividend of $0.17 per share “Positive economic trend and customer sentiment with increased production levels to drive significant revenue and earnings growth as years progress.” -Jeffrey I. Badgley, Co-CEO Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Company 10Q , 10K

6 Management Assertions
For Year 2016 Significant revenue growth with stronger earnings as production continues to increase Capital projects in progress to enhance production capabilities, bidding of new contracts, and expansion of backlog Healthy pipeline of business including high demand spurring increased quoting activity domestically and globally Increased production in preparation of future orders, positively impacting growth as years progress Prospective Business position to remain steady for solid close of 2016 with positive prospects for next year Secure completion of consolidation and expansion of Pennsylvania manufacturing operations and Tennessee facilities Plans to stay ahead of customer demand to drive revenue and earnings growth by maintaining production levels Continue to enhance shareholder value through management of healthy balance sheet and asset efficiency Insider Holdings Recent Trades Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Company 10Q , 10K

7 Porter’s 5 Forces & Complements
Industry Rivalry Entry Barriers Buyer’s Bargaining Power Threat of Substitute Supplier’s Bargaining Power Complements Entry Barriers (Low) -Relatively low capital requirements -Emphasis on need for proprietary products and technology Complementary Goods (Moderate) -Truck chassis -Vehicle transport services Industry Rivalry (High) -High competition for sales to distributors -Emphasis on product quality, innovation, reputation, technology, customer service, product availability, and price Supplier’s Bargaining Power (High) -Dependent on outside suppliers for raw material production inputs -High commodity and fuel price risk -Demand for punctual delivery of goods crucial within the industry Buyer’s Bargaining Power (High) -Demand dependent on availability of capital and access to lines of credit -Customer sentiment contingent on price of fuel and insurance costs Threat of Substitutes (Moderate) -Hiring and retaining labor essential to success -Disruption in IT systems poses threat within industry Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Company 10Q , 10K

8 SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Threats Opportunities
Excessive regulation for US and government programs Conflict with governmental mineral regulations International operations subject to various political, economic, and other uncertainties Loss of key executives could have material adverse impact on company operations Environmental and health liabilities may require material costs International markets Emerging market operations Technological advances and product innovation Low price of oil Improving economic drivers and customer sentiment Mature industry Highly cyclical Vulnerable to price risk and macroeconomic conditions Customer spending dependent on availability of capital and access to credit Financial strength Low long-term debt Solid pipeline of business Strong demand in domestic market High operating efficiency Strong working relationship with distributors Strengths Weaknesses Threats Opportunities Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Company 10Q , 10K

9 Business Cycle Towing and Recovery Equipment Industry highly cyclical in nature Industry performance heavily affected by changes in consumer confidence and economic conditions Concerns over economic recovery and continued volatility in capital and credit markets drive erosion in consumer confidence Overall demand for products continue to decline Future sales contingent on customers’ access to capital Prolonged economic downturn and slow or negative growth could adversely effect business, financial condition and operations MLR most likely to be within Recovery to Early Expansion stage, with uncertainty regarding further growth dependent on future economic prospects and customer sentiment Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Company 10Q , 10K

10 Macroeconomic & Industry Drivers
Consumer Confidence Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Seen in Notes Section

11 Industry Drivers Steel Price Aluminum Price
Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Seen in Notes Section

12 Relative Stock Market Prospect
We bought 400 shares 5.72% Gain due to earning release Bullish Crossover Brexit Impact Current Holdings (as of 2015/10/12) Key Statistics Market Cap $262.1M Trailing P/E 15.4 EV/EBITDA 7.4x 52-week Range $ $23.10 Date Acquired Price ($) Volume (shares) Current Gain ($) (%) 2011/04/28 20.59 400 23.10 1,004 12.19% Real Client Managed Portfolio

13 Financial Analysis Real Client Managed Portfolio
Financial Inputs: Company 10Q, 10K, Bloomberg, Capital IQ

14 Activity Ratios Real Client Managed Portfolio
Financial Inputs: Company 10Q, 10K, Bloomberg, Capital IQ

15 Liquidity Ratios Real Client Managed Portfolio
Financial Inputs: Company 10Q, 10K, Bloomberg, Capital IQ

16 Long Term Solvency Ratios
Real Client Managed Portfolio Financial Inputs: Company 10Q, 10K, Bloomberg, Capital IQ

17 DuPont Analysis (ROE) Real Client Managed Portfolio
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Profit Margin 5.6% 2.7% 2.3% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% Total Asset Turnover 1.9x 1.7x 1.8x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.3x Equity Multiplier 1.4x 1.3x 1.6x 1.5x ROE 15.1% 5.8% 5.7% 8.8% 9.2% 9.4% 10.3% 11.4% 12.1% 12.7% Real Client Managed Portfolio Financial Inputs: Company 10Q, 10K, Bloomberg, Capital IQ

18 Greenblatt Ratios Real Client Managed Portfolio
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E EBIT / Tangible Asset 27.2% 9.1% 9.4% 15.1% 15.7% 14.9% 15.0% 17.0% 18.9% 20.6% Shares Outstanding 11,000 11,160 11,270 11,300 11,340 Share Price 15.73 15.25 18.63 20.79 21.78 23.10 27.44 33.25 39.27 45.93 Market Cap 173,030 170,190 209,960 234,927 246,985 261,954 311,147 377,020 445,305 520,857 -Cash & Temporary Investments 50,153 48,591 42,864 39,597 38,449 29,824 37,837 43,366 50,210 61,260 +Total Noncurrent Liabilities 2,115 1,758 1,842 2,184 2,499 21,748 41,201 36,084 26,337 17,490 +Minority Interest - -518 Total Enterprise Value 124,992 123,357 168,420 197,514 211,035 253,878 314,511 369,739 421,432 477,087 EBIT / EV 31.1% 10.8% 8.5% 12.2% 11.4% 11.0% 11.3% 11.7% 12.0% 58.3% 19.9% 17.8% 27.3% 27.9% 26.3% 25.9% 28.3% 30.5% 32.6% Gram Implied Growth 3.5% Real Client Managed Portfolio Financial Inputs: Company 10Q, 10K, Bloomberg, Capital IQ

19 P/E Multiple Analysis Real Client Managed Portfolio
P/E Multiples Analysis 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Dividends per Share 0.50 0.52 0.56 0.60 0.64 EPS $2.09 $0.82 $1.32 $1.41 $1.54 $1.83 $2.22 $2.62 $3.07 Share Price $15.73 $15.25 $18.63 $20.79 $21.78 $23.10 $27.44 $33.25 $39.27 $45.93 P/E 7.52 18.66 22.75 15.76 15.46 14.98 Total Return 13.3% -2.9% 21.7% 11.5% 4.8% 5.5% 18.3% 20.8% 17.8% 16.7% Annualized Return 4.9% 10.2% 10.5% 9.4% 8.7% 10.0% 11.3% 12.0% 12.5% Real Client Managed Portfolio Financial Inputs: Company 10Q, 10K, Bloomberg, Capital IQ

20 Comparable Companies Company Ticker Descriptions
Supreme Industries, Inc STS The company manufactures and sells truck bodies, trolleys, and specialty vehicles in the United States. It operates through two segments, Specialized Commercial Vehicles and Fiberglass Products. In addition, the company offers armored SUV, trucks, and specialty vehicles and component parts. Oshkosh Corporation OSK The company designs, manufactures, and markets specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies worldwide. The company has three segments, Access Equipment segment, Defense segment, and Fire & Emergency segment. Wabash National Corp WNC The company designs, manufactures, and markets truck and tank trailers, intermodal equipment, and transportation related products in North America. It operates in three segments, Commercial Trailer Products, Diversified Products, and Retail. Navistar International Corporation NAV The company manufactures and sells commercial and military trucks, diesel engines, and school and commercial buses; and provides service parts for trucks and diesel engines worldwide. It operates through four segments: Truck, Parts, Global Operations, and Financial Services. Real Client Managed Portfolio

21 Comparable Valuation Implied Price: $25.0
Real Client Managed Portfolio

22 Comparable Valuation Real Client Managed Portfolio

23 Assign different weights to three effects
Revenue Drivers Assign different weights to three effects *Data from World Bank. *Data from World Bank. *Data from IBIS World, Statista, and First Research, US, Canada, Mexico, and Global Report on Auto Parts Manufacturing, Towing **Statista report: Source: MLR K, World Bank, IBIS World, Statista Report (Links attached in Notes Section) Real Client Managed Portfolio

24 WACC and Discount Rate 5-Year Daily Price Data
Source: Yahoo Finance Real Client Managed Portfolio

25 DCF Analysis Implied Price: $23.79 Range $19.10~$31.17
Real Client Managed Portfolio

26 Stock is currently Overvalued
Recommendation DCF Valuation $ Threats & Weakness Mature industry Highly cyclical Vulnerable to price risk Customer spending dependent on availability of capital and access to credit Regulation Volatility in commodity and currency prices Uncertainty regarding further industry growth Sell 200 Shares at the Market Stock is currently Overvalued Current Price (December 1, 2016) $ Comparable Valuation $ Real Client Managed Portfolio


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