1. Developing Political Strategies
- Nelson Mandela
- chapter 10

2. PAF 101
Module 5, Lecture 5
“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things.”
Why is it so hard to change things?
Forces of stability are always more powerful than the forces of change.
People with money do not want change.
~Niccolo Machiavelli

3. Choosing A Player Issue Position Firm Priority High Power High
With which to develop a strategy
Issue Position Firm
Priority High
Power High
Note:
Look at 10.1

4. Players to Target With Your Strategy
Lowest issue position (best to start with)
Lowest priority
Highest power
Note:
Look at 10.3
WRC Example

5. Thinking About Strategies
Making Solid Arguments
Add or Delete Players
Changing Issue Position
Changing Power
Changing Priorities
Putting it Together
Be careful with “arguments” point on slide-remind students that they can’t use arguments as a strategy in their module

6. 1.Compromise is the act of moving towards each other.
Key Strategies for Changing Issue Position
1.Compromise is the act of moving towards each other.
2. Horse-trading is the act of back scratching.
In speaking about compromise, I want to talk about one of the greatest leaders in this century, Nelson Mandela

7. Who is the greatest change agent of the 21st century?
           

8. Facts About South Africa
Population About 13% White, 75% Black, 9% Mixed, and 3% Indian
16th Century Dutch Colonize and Become Afrikaners
British Takeover After Beating Up Afrikaners
National Party Establishes Apartheid As Law
1950’s-1990’s - Organized and Violent Opposition
Multi-Racial Regime Headed By Mandela Takes Power

9. Facts about Mandela Joins African National Congress (ANC) in 1942
Jailed in 1963
Released in 1990
Becomes President in 1994

10. 98/373= 26% Figure 1: 1986 Prince Chart Probability of Implementation:
“One person, one vote” in South Africa”
Figure 1: 1986 Prince Chart
Player
Issue Position
Power
Priority
Prince
ANC +5 1 5
+25
Communist Party
Pan African Congress +2 2 +4
Liberal Party
National Party -4
-100
Conservative Parties -5 3
-75
West and Int’l Business +3 +9
Military 4
Inkatha
+10
One man, one vote.
A little confusing. Who are these people? Explain.
Probability of Implementation:
98/373= 26%

11. Facts About South Africa
Major challenges were overcome by threats, promises, horse trading, and compromise
Cohesion of “friends” – ANC, PAC, Lib. Party, Communist Party, Inkatha, International Business and Most Countries
Building Trust with “enemies” – National Party, Military, Conservative Parties
Note:
Prospect of better business opportunities combines with threat of civil war and loss of political power worked enough to maintain discipline in the ANC without it losing power to other groups.
Prospects of better business and less violence plus promise that the ANC could maintain discipline worked enough to allow DeKlerk to maneuver Conservative parties in.
British culture of compromise, with Afrikaner demand for order and business and African and Asian cultures that value community served as an underlying glue.

12. Facts About South Africa
Decline of South African Economy
Building of International Pressure
Fall of Soviet Union
Timing is everything, as in the case of all change

13. Figure 3: Prince Political Map
“One person, one vote in South Africa”
Figure 3: Prince Political Map
Issue Position
X ANC, Communistic Party, Liberal Party
X (ANC Only) +5 +4 +3
X West and Int’l Business x +2
X Pan African Congress
X Inkatha X X +1 -1 -2 -3 -4
National Party X -5
X Conservative Parties
X Military 5 10 15 20 25
Power x Priority

14. 238/313= 76% Figure 2: 1990 Prince Chart
“One person, one vote in South Africa”
Figure 2: 1990 Prince Chart
Player
Issue Position
Power
Priority
Prince
ANC +5 3 5
+75
Communist Party 1
+25
Pan African Congress +2 2 +4
Liberal Party
National Party
+50
Conservative Parties -5
-75
West and Int’l Business +3 +9
Military +1 4
+20
Inkatha
+30
Probability of Implementation:
238/313= 76%

15. Lessons About Change Change is very slow and very hard
Macro social, economic, and political trends have to be properly aligned
Fear is the most powerful source of change, greed is the second most powerful
Capacity for compromise comes from culture, circumstance, and leadership

16. Important Information!
Exercise 10.5 is worth 40 points
You will lose all points if you don’t submit your proposal on the website and attach the receipt.
You must also complete the post-test survey and attach it to your module, or you will lose points
Pre/Post Evaluations - PAF 101
NO EXCUSES