1. 19-21 June 2017
40th IAEE Conference
Singapore
Input-Output and Structural Decomposition Analysis of Singapore’s Carbon Emissions
Su Bin, Ang B.W., Li Yingzhu (
Energy Studies Institute
National University of Singapore 1

2. Outline Introduction Methodology
Input-Output Analysis
Structural Decomposition Analysis
Case Study of Singapore’s Carbon Emissions
Singapore’s Embodied Emissions by Sector
Singapore’s Embodied Emissions by Final Demand
Singapore Household related Carbon Emissions by Income Groups
Driving Forces to Singapore’s Embodiment Changes
Driving Forces to Singapore’s Household-related Emission Changes
Discussion and Conclusions

3. 1. Introduction Climate Change and COP-21 in Paris
Singapore as an island-state with no natural resources
Singapore’s energy supply fully relies on imports, and lack of alternative energy resource
Energy Efficiency is a practical and cost-effective means of mitigating CO2 while sustaining economic growth
Mitigation Targets:
Reduce emissions to 7-11% or 16% (if there is a legally binding global agreement on climate change) below BAU level by 2020;
Reduce emissions intensity by 36% from 2005 levels by 2030, and stabilise its emissions with the aim of peaking around 2030 (INDC submitted on July 2015).

4. Singapore’s National Circumstances
Urban city-state of just 718.3km²
Population: 5.35 million in 2015
GDP: S$402.5 billion in 2015
Per capita GDP: S$75,234
International Trade: S$884.1 billion
Contribution to 0.11% of global emissions

5. Singapore’s Social-Economic-Emission Indicators
Year
Population (Thousand)
GDP (Million SGD at 2005 Market Prices)
Carbon Emissions (kt-CO2)
Industry
Household
Total
2000
4,028
165,245
33,291
4,465
37,756
2010
5,077
284,561
40,934
3,454
44,388

6. 2. Methodology Input-Output Analysis
To find out the embodied carbon emissions in different final demand categories and detailed sectoral level
Data treatment: How to match the I-O and energy/emission data? (Su et al., 2010)
Model assumption: What are the I-O model assumptions used? (Su and Ang, 2013)
Structural Decomposition Analysis
To find out the driving forces (e.g. energy/emission efficiency and inputs/demand structure) to the change of embodied and total carbon emissions over time
Decomposition framework: How many factors to be considered? (Su and Ang, 2012)
Decomposition technique: Which technique is more appropriate? (Su and Ang, 2012)

7. Input-Output Analysis (Su et al., 2010; Su and Ang, 2013)
Non-competitive Imports Assumption
Private Consumption
Government Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Change in Inventory
International Exports
Embodied Carbon Emissions in

8. Household related Carbon Emissions (Direct + Indirect)
Direct Emissions by HH-G1
Indirect Emissions by HH-G1
Direct Emissions by HH-Gm
Indirect Emissions by HH-Gm
Household related Carbon Emissions

9. Structural Decomposition Analysis (Su and Ang, 2012)
D&L (SDA) or S/S (IDA) Method
Emission Coefficient
Energy Mix
Energy Intensity
Leontief Structure Effect
Final Demand Structure Effect
Total Final Demand Effect
Emission Intensity Effect
Embodied Emission Changes
Remarks: ● means the five final demand categories,
including pc, gc, gfcf, ci and ex.

10. Decomposition of Household related Carbon Emissions
Emission Intensity Effect
Leontief Structure Effect
Final Demand Structure Effect
Per Capita Final Demand
Population
Total Final Demand Effect
Household related Emission Changes

11. 3. Case Study of Singapore’s Carbon Emissions
Data Sources:
Singapore IO Tables 2000 (152 sectors) and 2010 (127 sectors) with 110 sectors
Yearbooks of Statistics Singapore
Energy Statistics from Various Sources
Reports on Household Expenditure Survey (HES)
Source
Monthly
HH-G1 (1st-20th)
HH-G2 (21st-40th)
HH-G3 (41st-60th)
HH-G4 (61st-80th)
HH-G5 (81st-100th)
National Average
HES
Expenditure
1,704
2,460
3,178
4,067
5,351
3,352
Income
1,229
3,060
4,759
7,286
14,558
6,179
HES
2,231
3,536
4,699
5,590
7,568
4,724
2,022
5,299
8,378
12,270
24,544
10,503

12. Singapore’s Embodied Emissions by Sector

13. Singapore’s Embodied Emissions by Final Demand

14. Singapore’s Embodiment in Exports for Top-10 I-O Sectors

15. Singapore Household related Carbon Emissions by Income Groups

16. Driving Factors to Embodied Emission Changes
intensity
Leontief
structure
Final demand
structure
Total final
demand

17. Breakdown of the Emission Intensity Effect

18. Driving Factors to Household-related Direct Emission Changes
intensity
Final demand
structure
Per capita
final demand
Population

19. Driving Factors to Household-related Indirect Emission Changes
intensity
Leontief
structure
Final demand
structure
Per capita
final demand
Population

20. 4. Discussion and Conclusions
This study presents Singapore’s embodied emissions in 2000&2010 and its driving forces to the embodiment changes happened.
Exports accounted for nearly two-thirds of Singapore’s total emissions and growth in its emissions in the last decade was largely export-driven.
Emissions increased as export-oriented industries and export volume expanded, whole fuel switch and energy efficiency helped to lower growth in emissions.
Household-related emissions accounted for about a quarter of Singapore’s total emissions.
The emissions related to different household groups remained stable as increases in embodied (indirect) emissions were offset by decreases in direct emissions.
The high-income HH group registered the largest increase in direct emissions, while the middle-income HH group registered the largest increase in embodied (indirect) emissions.

21. Energy Studies Institute National University of Singapore
Energy Studies Institute
National University of Singapore
29 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Block A, #10-01 Singapore
Thank You !!