1. NATURAL HAZARDS MISSION AREA SAFRR Project: Science Application for Risk Reduction
Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) – How Might SAFRR Help You?
Ken Hudnut, Science Advisor for Risk Reduction (SAFRR)
Dale Cox, Project Manager (SAFRR) 1 1
Natural Hazards: Earthquake • Volcanic Eruption • Landslide • Flood • Geomagnetic Storm • Wildfire • Tsunami • Coastal Erosion

2. The SAFRR Project
SAFRR: Science Application for Risk Reduction The mission of SAFRR is to innovate the application of hazard science for the safety, security, and economic well-being of the nation. 1 1
Natural Hazards: Earthquake • Volcanic Eruption • Landslide • Flood • Geomagnetic Storm • Wildfire • Tsunami • Coastal Erosion

3. SAFRR Helps Reduce Risk
Geologic hazards produce“low probability, high consequence” events:
They don’t often happen…
But they can happen at any time
We often neglect them to deal with more everyday needs…
But if one of these happens, we’ll wish we’d prepared!
SAFRR:
Identifies pressing (often unrecognized) aspects of risk reduction for geologic hazards
Brings the best available hazard science to bear on the problem
Organizes a collaboration of cross-disciplinary experts from academia, government, NGOs, and private sector
Works throughout with potential users as collaborators

4. How It Works
SAFRR identifies the location, users/audience, potential hazards
Example Location – a city, state, region, or type of facility
Example Audience – local, regional, state, federal
government; emergency managers; lifeline operators,
business sector (continuity of operations / contingency
planners / supply chain vulnerability analysts)
Users (members of the audience) help:
Identify what’s at risk
Prioritize their needs from SAFRR
Select/invite local participants
SAFRR and users build coalition to get buy-in, develop, broadcast, and use the project results

5. Why We’re Here Today Find out your hazard/risk needs
Identify whether SAFRR’s approach can help
If it can, decide our steps forward
Natural hazards represent an important part of the threats & hazards matrix. We want to help, and if you’d to build on a foundation of scientific realism for your future exercises, we can support that need by connecting you to published info & subject matter experts who are eager to assist!

6. The SAFRR Scenarios
ShakeOut: San Andreas fault (southern California) earthquake scenario (2008) ARkStorm: winter storm scenario impacting U.S. West Coast (2010) Tsunami Scenario: tsunami generated by an Alaskan earthquake and impacting the U.S. West Coast (2013) HayWired: Hayward fault (northern California) earthquake scenario (in progress) Southwest Climate Extremes: drought, storms, long periods of heat, sea-level rise (in initiation stage)
ShakeOut > Great ShakeOut (45 million people annually); National Level Exercise, Special Edition to Earthquake Spectra; ARkStorm > multi-hazards and societal impacts of ARs (Special Edition of Natural Hazards Review); Tsunami > West Coast impacts of a tsunami generated by a Tohoku-sized earthquake in the Eastern Aleutians; HayWired > M7.0 eq on the Bay Area and the wired and wireless world; and SW Climate Extremes > the dynamic impacts of extended periods of drought, more extreme storms, longer heat waves, and sea-level rise.

7. Components of a SAFRR Scenario
Outputs
Outcomes
Working Groups
Exposed Vulnerabilities
Scientific Reports & Tools
Products, Simulations, Communication tools (e.g. on web)
Emergency Response Exercises
Relationships
Source
Research
Secondary Hazards
Use of science in decision-making (through exercises!)
for risk reduction
Application
Physical Damages
Mitigation
Social/Economic Impacts
SAFRR uses separate working groups to work on bits of the scenario, working in parallel or in series.
Objectives: develop relationships, especially between stakeholder; advance knowledge; mitigate; educate (e.g., Drop, Cover, Hold on practiced by schoolchildren came out of the ShakeOut scenario)
Education
Policy Considerations
Resilience

8. 2016 Los Angeles Fleet Week Scenario: Magnitude 7
2016 Los Angeles Fleet Week Scenario: Magnitude 7.3 Earthquake on the Palos Verdes Fault

10. Scenario: Magnitude 7.3 Earthquake on the Palos Verdes Fault Consequences from HAZUS runs by CGS (2009) & SCEC (2013):
5,242 casualties (injuries and fatalities) if the earthquake occurs at 2 pm (when most people are expected to be at work or school)
$10.9 billion direct economic loss due to building damage
Surface fault rupture of 6 to 9 feet of right-lateral (horizontal shift) offset that would contribute significantly to the overall damage
Severs communication link to FAA San Pedro Hill radar facility
Significant disruption of lifeline infrastructure along the Palos Verdes fault on-land from San Pedro to Torrance along the break in hill slope from the flat ground (NE side) to the hill (SW side) of the Palos Verdes peninsula
Fire Following Earthquake and Multiple Large Oil Spills (PMAO exercise?)
Oil refineries damages
Liquid Bulk Facilities damages
Isolation of Peninsula and Port Complex
Bridge inspections required and probably damage (Vincent Thomas, Gerald Desmond, Bager Ave)
Landslides (Gaffey Street, Portuguese Bend)
Liquefaction

11. 3DEP Supports USGS Science
Coastal Hazards
Insert Visual

12. Questions?
Ken Hudnut,
Dale A. Cox,