1. Research and Analysis
for Management
MGMT 6272
Fall 2017
Dr. Dennis E. Clayson

2. The class can be found online at

3. We will learn in this module:
What information is
Why information is created in certain ways
How to evaluate information
How to do business research

4. The second half will be more practical than other classes.
The first part of this class will be more
philosophical than others.
The second half will be more practical than other classes.

5. A business manager must make decisions

6. To make good decisions a manager must have:
information

7. To use information to make decisions, a manager
must know what
information is!

8. And Used ! To use information to make decisions, a manager
must know what information is
And how information is created
And Used !

9. Managers typically make
four mistakes….

10. Mistake 1: Not knowing what information is!

11. Not seeking Information!
Mistake 2:
Not seeking Information!

13. Mistake 3: Not knowing what to do with information!

14. Mistake 4: Not knowing when information is good or bad!

15. Mistake 1: Not knowing what information is!
Many come to believe that:
Data is information or
Presentation is information
Complexity
Format
Confidence of source

16. Mistake 1: Not knowing what information is!
Mistake 2: Not seeking Information!
How does a person become a leader
or manager?
They probably have a history of correct decision making,
or they believe they do.

17. Bureaucrats are interested in PROCESS
Mistake 1: Not knowing what information is!
Mistake 2: Not seeking Information!
Mistake 3: Not knowing what to do with information!
Bureaucrats are interested in PROCESS
not in OUTCOMES.

18. Bureaucrats are interested in PROCESS not in OUTCOMES.
It has become almost universal that
almost all organizations are being taken
over by bureaucrats, and bureaucratical structures.
Bureaucrats are interested in PROCESS
not in OUTCOMES.

20. Mistake 1: Not knowing what information is!
Mistake 2: Not seeking Information!
Mistake 3: Not knowing what to do with information!
Mistake 4: Not knowing when information is good or bad!

21. This is where we will spend most our time!
Mistake 3: Not knowing what to do with information!
Mistake 4: Not knowing when information is good or bad!
This is where we will spend most our time!

22. Much of the information that is utilized for management decisions
comes from numbers….

23. Much of the information that is utilized for management decisions
comes from numbers….
OR is calculated from numbers,
OR is explained
by numbers….

24. They are illiterate with numbers.
This, however, creates a fundamental problem!
Many people are:
Inumerate…
i.e.
They are illiterate with numbers.

25. Numerical concepts for them are very confusing….

26. Actual Examples When I asked my undergraduate  
Actual Examples
When I asked my undergraduate
students what the population of the United States is,
the answers ranged from 1.5 million to 300 billion. The
average was 13.6 billion!

27. Actual Examples
We had to have the garage door repaired. The Sears repairman told us that one of our problems was that we did not have a 'large' enough motor on the opener. I thought for a minute, and said that we had the largest one Sears made at that time, a 1/2 horsepower. He shook his head and said, 'Lady, you need a  1/4 horsepower.' I responded that 1/2 was larger than 1/4. He said, 'NO, it's  not..' Four is larger than two.'        
My daughter and I went through the McDonald's take-out window and I gave the clerk a $5 bill. Our total was $4.25, so I also handed her a quarter. She said, 'you gave me too much money.' I said, 'Yes I know, but this way you can just give me a dollar bill back.  She sighed and went  to get the manager, who asked me to repeat my request. I did so, and he handed me back the quarter, and said 'We're sorry but we could not do that kind of thing.' The clerk then proceeded to give me back $1 and 75 cents in change. 

28. Some Americans were very impressed when the government
promised to cut $100 million in spending from
$2 trillion in spending.

29. Because $100 is larger than $2.
Why?
Because $100 is larger than $2.

30. Innumeracy Test
1. A person produces about a liter of urine/day (0.04 cubic feet),
how big a cube (dimensions) would contain all the urine produced in
the U.S. in one day?

31. Innumeracy Test
1. A person produces about a liter of urine/day (0.04 cubic feet),
how big a cube would contain all the urine produced in Hong Kong in one day?
2. How tall is the Sears Tower (Chicago) in feet?

32. Innumeracy Test The answer: Approximately 0.000000012 MPH
1. A person produces about a liter of urine/day (0.04 cubic feet),
how big a cube would contain all the urine produced in Hong Kong in one day?
2. How tall is the Sears Tower (Chicago) in feet?
3. How fast does hair grow in MPH?
The answer: Approximately MPH

33. Innumeracy Test
1. A person produces about a liter of urine/day (0.04 cubic feet),
how big a cube would contain all the urine produced in Hong Kong in one day?
2. How tall is the Sears Tower (Chicago) in feet?
3. How fast does hair grow in MPH?
4. Last year (2016) the federal government spent $3.54 trillion.
There are 324 million Americans. If there was no deficit and every person had to pay
the same amount of federal tax, what would be the tax per person?

34. Innumeracy Test
1. A person produces about a liter of urine/day (0.04 cubic feet),
how big a cube would contain all the urine produced in Hong Kong in one day?
2. How tall is the Sears Tower (Chicago) in feet?
3. How fast does hair grow in MPH?
4. The American federal debt is now $20.1 trillion.
a) If everyone in the US that had an income of a million had to pay
100% of their entire income to the government, how many millionaires
would it take to pay off the debt?

35. Innumeracy Test
1. A person produces about a liter of urine/day (0.04 cubic feet),
how big a cube would contain all the urine produced in Hong Kong in one day?
2. How tall is the Sears Tower (Chicago) in feet?
3. How fast does hair grow in MPH?
4. The American federal debt is now $20.1 trillion.
a) If everyone in the US that had an income of a million had to pay
100% of their entire income to the government, how many millionaires
would it take to pay off the debt?
5. An increase of dopamine will decrease the tremors of Parkinson disease.
True or False; an decrease of dopamine will cause Parkinson?

36. Even worse, they are not quite sure what to do with numbers
when they get them……

37. Introduction
What is knowing?

38. What are we doing when we are knowing?

39. Phrenology: A science? based on the shape of your head.

40. What is color?

41. no exception KNOW about the Everything we outside world comes
from our own brains.
It is very important
to remember that there is
no exception
to this!

42. Everything we KNOW has to come from a perception formed by our
own mind.

43. Illusions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_illusion

44. So… can we trust our senses?

45. Logic
Galileo Galilei

46. Evidence
Galileo Galilei

47. “Our inquires should be directed not to what others have thought,
Descartes wrote:
“Our inquires should be directed
not to what others have thought,
not to what we ourselves conjecture,
but to what we can clearly
and perspicuously behold
and with certainty deduce;
for knowledge is not won in any other way.”
Rene Descartes
(1596 – 1650)

48. and rule of the true is to have made it.”
Vico states:
“The criterion
and rule of the true is to have
made it.”
The principle states that truth is
verified through creation or invention
and not through observation.
Giambattista Vico
(1668 – 1744)

49. Knowledge creates knowledge
because proper knowing creates more knowing!

50. What is this?

52. But there are no volcanoes or lava flows in the Olympic Mountains!

54. Logic and Research

55. Logic and Research are related
Opinion = Belief or
Guess

56. Logic and Research are related
Opinion = Belief or
Guess
Hypothesis = Opinion that
can be tested

57. Hypo = Under
Thesis = Idea or thought
Hypothesis = Underlying idea

58. Logic and Research are related
Opinion = Belief or
Guess
Hypothesis = Opinion that
can be tested
Statistic = Method of calculating
probability

59. Logic and Research are related
Opinion = Belief or
Guess
Hypothesis = Opinion that
can be tested
Statistic = A characteristic of a sample

60. A statistic is a characteristic of
a group.
It tells you nothing about an individual
except for
a probability.

61. This is a VERY important concept and one that
many people get wrong!
A statistic is a characteristic of
a group.
It tells you nothing about an individual
except for
a probability.

62. Men are taller
than women…
This is statistically true….

65. Asian Americans have an average IQ higher than African Americans
In the U.S.
Asian Americans have an average IQ higher than African Americans

66. What does this tell you about Thomas Sowell?

67. What do statistics tell us
about this person?
What information do we have?

68. She is 40 years old. She has a MD degree. She works in Vancouver.
Can you now make a better guess about
her income and position?

69. She is 40 years old. She has a MD degree. She works in Vancouver.
Can you make a good guess about
whether she is married?

70. Statistic: Education majors have the lowest standardized scores
(ACT, Iowa Basic, etc.) of any majors on campus.

71. Statistic: Education majors have the lowest standardized scores
(ACT, Iowa Basic, etc.) of any majors on campus.
An education major says, “That can’t be true. Both my friend
and I had the highest ACT scores in my high school and we are
both education majors. I am highly offended by your slur.”

72. Statistic: Education majors have the lowest standardized scores
(ACT, Iowa Basic, etc.) of any majors on campus.
An education major says, “That can’t be true. Both my friend
and I had the highest ACT scores in my high school and we are
both education majors. I am highly offended by your slur.”
What is wrong with this logic?

73. Logic and Research are related
Opinion = Belief or Guess
Hypothesis = Opinion that an be tested
Statistic = A characteristic of a sample
Research findings = Results of controlled
research procedures

74. Research findings do not mean that something
Be careful here…..
Research findings do not mean that something
is true!
They simply increase the probability….

75. Facts and Reality

76. Logic and statistics are sometimes difficult in the real world….

77. Take the NBA as an example!

78. The ratio of Afro-American to Euro-Americans
in the NBA is about 4:1

79. The ratio of Afro-Americans to Euro-Americans
in the USA is about 1:6

80. Why? The probability of an Afro-American child becomes a NBA
player is 24 times larger than an Euro-American child….
Why?

81. Reality can be very hard and messy….
Theory is fun…
Reality can be very hard and messy….

82. When to Start Collecting?
Social Security
When to Start Collecting?

83. How much you collect in SS in a month depends on when you
start to collect your funds.

84. What decision will you make??
At 66, you will get about $2,200/month…
At 70, you will get about $3,000/month…
But you would have to give up $2,200/month
for 4 years, or $105,600….
After 70, it would take 132 months (11 years) to make up
the difference …
So, if you thought you would die before you are 81…
take the money now….
What decision will you make??

85. What decision will you make?? What information do you want
At 66, you will get about $2,200/month…
At 70, you will get about $3,000/month…
What decision will you make??
What information do you want
before you make this decision?

88. How long do people actually live?
But……….
How long do people actually live?

89. http://www. huffingtonpost

90. Global Warming

95. Co2
Temp
Sun Spot
Number

96. 1,122 Record Cold Temps in the U.S. in one week
July in the USA ends on a frigid note as record cold outpaces warmth nearly 10 to 1
71% Of The US Below Normal Temperature in 2013
Headlines:
2016 Was the Hottest Year Ever.
It's the Third Year in a Row of Record-High Heat
Time
Former Obama Official Mocks “Hottest year on Record”
Temps within Margin of Error

97. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been caught red-handed manipulating temperature data to show "global warming" where none actually exists.
Source: Breitbart
Date: Aug. 15, 2014
Writer: James Delingpole
British writer and Oxford grad
Libertarian Conservative