1. Copenhagen Climate Congress
“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009 1 1 1 1

2. Migration: Adaptation to climate change or failure to adapt?
Findings from a global empirical study
Dr. Koko Warner Section Head, Environmental Migration and Adaptation
UNU-EHS
Bonn, Germany
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009

3. Does climate change affect human mobility including migration?
2 issues on global agenda, discussed separately
Climate change and environmental degradation
Migration
Are they linked? Yes…the key is to understand how.
How many will migrate? Where are they coming from? Where are they heading to?
Present scientific and political perceptions of the climate change & human security challenge
Less developed regions are especially vulnerable to impacts of environmental change (IPCC 4th Comprehensive Report 2007)
„Climate change has serious implications on international peace and security, including migration.“ (UN General Assembly Thematic Debate, Feb. 2008)
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009

4. Climate change and human movement: Framing the issue
How many environmentally induced migrants?
Today: 24 million environmentally induced migrants worldwide (UNHCR 2002).
By 2010: 50 million (Myers 2005)
By 2050: Estimates vary widely, 200 million becoming a widely cited estimate (IOM 2008)
After 2050: Up to 700 million environmental migrants (Christian Aid 2007)
Environmental factors are part of complex patterns of multiple causality — closely linked to economic, social and political factors in driving migration
Significant uncertainties warrant more research!
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009

5. Sea level rise of 1 meter & population distribution
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009

6. Environmental change & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories(WGBU 2007)
Is this enough information to assess climate change & migration / displacement?
How many environmentally induced migrants?
Today: 24 million environmentally induced migrants worldwide (UNHCR 2002).
By 2010: 50 million (Myers 2005)
By 2050: Estimates vary widely, 200 million becoming a widely cited estimate (IOM 2008)
After 2050: Up to 700 million environmental migrants (Christian Aid 2007)
Main trajectories
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009
Source: WGBU 2007 (modified)

7. Copenhagen Climate Congress
Empirical research
Need for empirical research
prompted European Commission to sponsor a first-time ever global scoping study of environmental change and forced migration scenarios ( ,
23 case studies investigate migrant characteristics and origins, links with environmental change and coping capacity to climate change
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009

8. Copenhagen Climate Congress
23 cases worldwide investigating environmentally induced migration, n = 1035
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009

9. Copenhagen Climate Congress
Empirical findings
Links with environmental change: Environmental factors currently contribute to migration
Livelihoods dependent on environment most sensitive to climate changes
No ‘one-size-fits-all’ model of environmental migration
Border between forced and voluntary migration increasingly blurred
Mass migration triggered by env. reasons could occur when ecosystems change irreversibly (thresholds passed)
Migrant characteristics: Vulnerability profile of environmentally induced migrants
Younger, older, gendered, poorer people more sensitive to environmental change (constrained coping options) – how far can they afford to move?
Internal migration and resettlement
Coping capacity vis-a-vis climate change
Surveys in all case study countries indicated that households expect migration will become an option in the future if environmental conditions worsen
Migration both a coping strategy and flight, adaptation and extreme adaptation
„Migration as adaptation“ option politically challenging
„Migration as extreme adaptation“ challenges humanitarian response capacity
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009

10. Adaptation or Failure to Adapt?
Current policy discourse on CC and migration
Genuine concern about the human consequences
Also driven by underlying institutional interests
Empirical evidence
Relationships between environmental change and migration, variety of patterns and contexts
Knowledge base remains limited, more questions than answers
Indicators of adaptation or failure to adapt:
Adaptation: orderly, peaceful, new livelihoods possible, environmental conditions in receiving areas remain stable
Failure to adapt: chaotic, conflictual, humanitarian crisis, worsening environmental conditions
Governance and management of migration key
System transformation (climate change, societal, technological, economic, political)
Existing strategies will work partially, but new governance modes also needed
Empirical evidence has begun to be gathered about the relationships between environmental change and migration, yielding rich insights about the variety of patterns and contexts of the phenomena today. Yet the knowledge base remains so limited as to raise more questions than answers.
The current discourse is marked by genuine concern about the human consequences as well as the implications for climate change adaptation, but is driven in part by underlying interests that may seek to reinforce current institutional arrangements.
To gain more traction about the governance implications, a decision tree aids in the conceptualization of the range of expressions of environmentally induced migration. In the context of system transformation (climate change, societal, technological, economic, political) existing strategies will work, in part at least, for the future situation. Yet the analysis suggests that new governance modes are needed.
The complexity of the situation calls for a balanced, multi-pronged approach that allows stakeholders a role in shaping new governance directions. A five-pronged approach provides a point of departure for improving scientific understanding, raising public awareness from local to international levels, changing institutions, improving humanitarian response, and shaping legislative and legal frameworks to address the multicausal and complex challenge of environmentally induced migration.
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009

11. Copenhagen Climate Congress
Thank you!
Dr. Koko Warner
Tel:
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009

12. Spectrum of Environmentally Induced Migration
Rapid Onset Hazards
(e.g. Floods, Earthquakes)
Loss of Ecosystem
Services and
Slow Onset Hazards
Rapid and effective
social, economic and
physical recovery
of impacted areas
Migrant does not
return to
impacted area
Slow and ineffective
ENVIRONMENTALLY
MOTIVATED
MIGRANT
FORCED
ENVIRONMENTAL
EMERGENCY
Action of fleeing to
save one’s life
Person migrates away
from impacted area
Environmental
reason for migration
dominant subjectively:
reoccurring droughts,
sea-level rise
Environmental reason
for migration decision
not dominant
subjectively
NOT AN
Accelerated degradation
of ecosystems
e.g. pollution events,
rapid soil erosion
Gradual degradation
e.g. land degradation,
loss of biodiversity,
Alternative livelihood
was possible in
was possible in impacted
area but required
significant time
No alternative
livelihood was
possible in impacted area
Livelihoods Impacted
Land/home destroyed,
lost and/or unsafe
Impacted area no
longer exists
EVENT or STRESS
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009
Source: Renaud et al. 2009

13. What is environmentally induced migration?
No agreed international definition of “environmental migration”
Working definition
“Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad” (IOM 2007).
This definition seeks to encompass population movement or displacement:
Temporary or permanent; internal or cross-border
Regardless of whether voluntary or involuntary
Due to sudden or gradual environmental change
Copenhagen Climate Congress
10-12 March 2009