1. Water Security and Human Migration
Mukand S. Babel
Water Engineering and Management

2. Outlines Definitions Facts and figures
Water security
Migration
Environmental migration
Facts and figures
Climate change-Water security-Migration nexus (CWM)
Examples
Voluntary migration: Water suitcase
Environmental migration: Refugee crisis in Jordon
CWM nexus and other securities: Horn of Africa
Final reflections

3. Definition: Water security
Many definitions exist and most have a certain sector bias
The capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of and acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability (UN Water)
OECD: Water security is about learning to live with an acceptable level of water risk
Key Dimensions of Water Security
(Asian Water Development Outlook, 2016)

4. Definition: Human migration
Migration: Movement by people from one place to another with the intentions of settling, temporarily or permanently in the new location
External
Internal (dominant)
Forced Migration
Human migration flows in which the movers have no choice but to relocate
Temporary or permanent
Voluntary Migration
Human migration flows in which the movers responds to perceived opportunity, not forced
In search of a better quality of life
Migration – A change in residence that is intended to be permanent
Immigration – the movement of non-native people into a country in order to settle there
Emigration – To leave one country or region to settle in another; or to migrate away from ones native place

5. Definition: Environmental migration
Environmental migrants are people who are forced to leave their home region due to sudden or long-term changes to their local environment
These are changes which compromise their well-being or secure livelihood
Factors influencing the risk of environmental migration (Döös, 1997)

6. Facts and figures 5 top global risks in terms of likelihood
5 top global risks in terms of impact
Source: The Global Risk Report, 12th ed., 2017

7. Facts and figures 24.2 million new displacements by disasters in 2016
South and East Asia are the most affected regions
China, India and Philippines have the highest absolute numbers
New displacements by conflicts and disasters in 2016
Source: Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), 2017

8. New displacements by disasters by hazard category, 2008 to 2016
Facts and figures
New displacements by disasters by hazard category, 2008 to 2016
Weather-related hazards, in particular storms brought on the majority of all new disaster displacements in 2016
Source: Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), 2017

9. Climate change Climate change-Water Security-Migration (CWM) nexus
Climate drivers of migration and displacement
Droughts and changing rainfall
Extreme weather events
Rising sea levels, glacial retreat, and desertification – slow onset events
Conflict and violence triggered by climate change
Future Migration and displacement from climate change
Short-term – Climate change is already fueling displacement
1.5°C Warming – Moderate, but manageable migration impact
2°C Warming – A new, hostile reality and significant migration
3°C WARMING – Catastrophic climate change forces people to flee
4°C Warming – Beyond adaptation into mass migration
Source: CARE Denmark, 2016

10. CWM nexus
By 2025, up to 2.4 billion people may be living in area subjected to periods of intense water scarcity, which may displace as many as 700 million by 2030
More than 40 million people face displacement from extreme events each year
Under the BAU case, floods, droughts and hurricanes will push total number of permanently displaced people as high as 250 million between now and 2050s
By 2050, 162 million people in Bangladesh, Egypt, China, India and other parts of the world including small island states will be vulnerable to sea level rise and another 50 million to desertification
Source: CARE Denmark, 2016

11. CWM nexus
SSA: Food production systems are increasingly at risk due to water scarcity, significant yield reduction already evident under 20C warming
MENA: Impacted by temperature rise, desertification and dust storms, and population centers may become intolerable to humans
SEA: Rural livelihoods will be impacted by the sea level rise. The displacement of impacted rural and coastal communities will bring pressures to the urban centers
SA: Increasing tropical cyclone intensity, sea level rise, extreme precipitation will force people to leave their origin communities
PI: At certain levels of sea level rise, some islands will cease to exist, entire counties will be forced to migrate and the international community will be confront what that means for sovereignty
Source: CARE Denmark, 2016

12. CWM nexus
Climate-driven water change, combined with rising global demand for freshwater (up by 55% by 2050), increases the risk of food insecurity, social instability, potentially violent conflict, and in turn, migration

13. CWM nexus Water Security Migration Climate Change
Domestic
Economic
Urban
Environmental
Resilience to water-related disaster
Water Security
Migration
Forced
Temporary
Permanent
Voluntary
Environmental
Climate Change
Lack of water security in the origin location/country creates human migration
Extensive human migration also creates water insecurity in the destine location/country
Climate change can accelerate migration as well as creates water insecurity

14. Voluntary migration: Water Suitcase
Water suitcase increased from 321 m3/y in 1990 to m3/y in 2010
If the water suitcase exceeds the water footprint, migrations turn out to be detrimental to the water endowments of origin countries
Challenging the common perception that migrations tend to relieve the pressure on the water resources of origin countries
The Virtual Water Suitcase of Migrants (Metulini et al., 2016)

15. Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan
Jordan is running out of water
One of the driest countries of the world
Due to aging infrastructure every year billions of liters of water is wasting (water to satisfy need of 2.6 million people, or more than 1/3 of Jordan’s current population
Water crisis badly exacerbated by the increasing needs of refugees
In , 000 refugees pushed to Jordan
App. 83% of Syrian refugees lives in cities and towns
Source: MERCY CORPS, 2017

16. Horn of Africa
Somalia: Seasonal rainfall 50% below average , 85% of cropland affected by drought
Ethiopia: 25 – 85% of cropland got affected
Kenya: Many parts of the country receive rainfall 50 – 75% below average
Somalia: 3.2 million people are facing crisis
Ethiopia: people receiving humanitarian assistance increased from 5.6 to 7.8 million in the first quarter of the year
Kenya: 2.6 million people are in the need of assistance. Food insecurity forecasted to increase between 3 – 3.5 million
Somalia: between Nov – Jul K IDPs due to drought
Ethiopia: due to flood est. 500K IDPs, on going drought – 400K IDPs, 5, 163 new Somali refugee from January
Kenya: 10, 772 new refugees from South Sudan since Jan 2017
Source: OCHA, 2017

17. Horn of Africa
Somalia: No. of children projected to be acutely malnourished increased by 50% since the beginning of the year
Ethiopia: Malnutrition rated are currently high following poor performing spring rains particularly in south-east
Kenya: Nutrition survey conducted in June 2017 in Turkana indicate a deepening nutritional crisis compared to 5 months ago
Somalia: 53, 015 cumulative cases of AWD/Cholera since the beginning of 2017
Ethiopia: AWD continues to reported but with a decreasing incident rate
Kenya: There is an active Cholera outbreak and dengue fever outbreak; 17 cases of Measles also reports so far
Source: OCHA, 2017

18. Final reflections Water security and migration quite complex
Understanding them is a challenge
Water security is not the only driver of migration
Political/social tensions, transboundary relationships and existing poverty and inequality determine whether migration occurs
Climate change simply aggravates the situation
The impact of water variability and insecurity is so significant to a host of issues that any plan to tackle climate change, migration (and a host of other issues)
without sustainable water management at its core, can only ever be that — a plan

19. Final reflections Water should be viewed as a connector
It connects policy areas, economic sectors, ecosystems, and societies
Its importance to both climate adaptation and mitigation cannot be underestimated, and makes it a key channel through which opportunities for cooperation can grow
Migration is an important form of adaptation to climatic stresses
that has occurred for millennia and continues to be practiced in many parts of the world today

20. Final reflections If I had an hour to solve a problem
I’d spend fifty five minutes thinking about the problem
and five minutes thinking about solutions
…Albert Einstein

21. Thank you very much