1. New Zealand’s Forestry Industry
Overview of MPIs Climate Change Research programme
What we know and what we don’t know about agriculture mitigation
To Biological Emissions Advisory Group
By Gerald Rys
May 2016
September 2016
Ministry for Primary Industries

2. The Research Programmes
Five research but interrelated programmes
Greenhouse gas inventory and reporting started 2003
Research into improving our national forestry and agriculture greenhouse gas inventory and reporting.
Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium started 2002
Research in ruminant methane and nitrous oxide mitigation in agriculture. Commercialises government and industry research
The Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change Research Programme started 2007
Research into the impacts of and adaptation to climate change, forestry and agriculture greenhouse gas mitigation research – as well as cross cutting issues, such as social science, adoption and practice change.
 The New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre – NZAGRC started 2009
Research on methane, nitrous oxide and soil carbon mitigation in agriculture. This research supports capability development and the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases.
The Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases started 2009
Internationally coordinated research into finding ways to grow more food without growing greenhouse gas emissions.

3. Greenhouse gas inventory
‘Cannot manage what you cannot measure’
New Zealand has unique emission factors so cannot rely on IPCC defaults or other international factors or research. Need to do our own research.
Inventory has activity data and emission factors – both need to be accurate and estimatable
To get benefit mitigations need to be captured and verifiable through the inventory
Major areas have been covered but many emission factors have not be NZidised
Pressure to continue to get research funds
Inventory research supports ETS values, OVERSEER and other models as well as inventory
Has two mitigation technologies included now - nitrification and urease inhibitors
What is the evidence base requirements to approve a new emission factor? Neither under or overestimate

4. Greenhouse gas inventory – major improvements
Methane
Incorporating animal performance data- not trivial at a national level
Incorporating Australian energy equations for estimating animal intake
Incorporating NZ derived relationship between intake and methane emissions SF6, Chambers
Future NZ derived sheep and cattle intake - methane emission factors
Nitrous oxide
Incorporation NZ EF3, split for dung and urine, reduced leaching factor, urea, over 180 treatments nationally
Future split by hill slope, season, animal species.
Forage Quality ME and N content

5. Methane
Ruminant methane, methanogens also waste methane and soil methane absorption - methanotrops
Breeding low methane animals - proven in sheep no adverse other impacts, feed flow through, small but cumulative, need to prove in cattle
Feeds - Proven lower methane in one brassica species and sugar beet, pastures very similar over wide range of digestibility
Vaccine – long term easily administered
Inhibitors - one commercial product already proven but not consistent in pasture, 3-4 inhibitory products found in short term animal trials e.g. 2 days, method of distribution is the biggest issue e.g. needed daily administration or use rumen bolus.

6. Nitrous oxide
DCD voluntary withdrawal, still the best, most proven mitigation, spillover impact of reduced nitrate leaching. Not on Codex list as recognised as non toxic.
MPI is taking case to Codex on process for recognising low toxic substances.
Mitigations include looking for
low nitrogen containing feeds to reduce nitrogen inputs,
looking for other nitrification inhibitors,
look at understanding the urine patch, biggest source of nitrous oxide
identifying where urine patch is and selectively applying an inhibitor
urease inhibitor applied directly to urea fertiliser granules now widely used in NZ
Understanding emissions under wet conditions
Do plants directly affect nitrous oxide emissions

7. Integrated systems
Individual mitigation technologies need to be tested in integrated systems to see what the complex interaction effects are on greenhouse gases.
We have models that can simulate what they think impacts on the farm system ghgs might be.
We know what some of the key mitigation options are eg lower nitrogen fertiliser, high BV animals, reducing herd wastage, high herd fertility, mating hoggets, etc
We need to test what actual emissions are in integrated farm systems, very costly, complex measurement technologies just being developed.

8. Soil Carbon
Will soil carbon accounting be introduced under Paris Agreement? Should we incorporate, type of accounting net/net, gross/net accounting
What we know - Gaining carbon in hill country, loosing carbon under intensive systems, loose carbon through cultivation including direct drilling, loose carbon under irrigation, carbon/ nitrogen impacts
Soil erosion- does erosion lead to loss of carbon as carbon dioxide?? Unknown
How to enhance soil carbon
Deep rooted species, deep ploughing soil inversion, earthworms??
Unknown - What impact does climate have eg droughts - suggests significant carbon loss
Measurement - Carbon very difficult to measure - need long time intervals eg 5-10 years highly variable, techniques being established, hill country even more problematic

9. GHG intensity
Increasing productivity has been consistent and linear over the last 25 years we have recorded. 1 percent per annum on average.
$440 million on Agricultural Research by Government of which probably ¾ is on animal agriculture.
Productivity of NZ cow is still only half that of a US or European animal so there is plenty of potential left to increase productivity - just need feed and genetics
Also normal distribution of current productivity between farms so using top current systems can lead to a significant increase in the current population productivity without the need for new innovations.

10. What are some other issues
Where does livestock agriculture sit in the world and what are the pressures
Strong anti-animal global push from a climate change perspective as animals produce four times the emissions of food crops? Is this true?
There is need for a life cycle approach to avoid pollution swapping between changing farming systems eg ruminants to crops etc Often soil carbon losses are not taken into account
Ruminants have a special place in evolution [50 million years] being able to produce food from very poor herbage e.g. including in areas where no other farming could be conducted. Therefore ruminants add to food security.
It is a scientific certainty that emissions from ruminants will not able to be reduced to zero. It is also a certainty that emissions from broader agriculture will not be able to be reduced to zero.
In relation to agriculture emissions, it will be more difficult to reduce methane emissions than nitrous oxide emissions, however methane emissions make up three quarters of NZ total agriculture emissions.

11. Other issues
Changing Global Warming Potential for non carbon dioxide ghg. Can loose any mitigation gains eg methane from 21 to current percent increase in carbon dioxide equivalent in one change. Andy Reisinger a global expert. Will continue to increase going forward. Whats the solution? Is current GWP approach the best.
GMOs and its role in reducing emissions – need to start the debate
Plants - lower nitrogen content ryegrasses, species, tannin containing common species, greater ME content of current species
Animals - can we GM modify animals?
Rumen methanogens? Low methane producing methanogens that are highly competitive in the rumen?
Adaptation and mitigation - How are they linked and should consideration be given to impacts of climate change be taken into account eg increased carbon dioxide affects plant growth and nitrogen efficiency and hence nitrous oxide emissions.

12. Other Issues
Inhibitor/vaccines need to meet all regulatory requirements, customer requirements, toxicology, residue impacts
Maori Business requirements – NZAGRC programme looking at integrated systems to reduce emissions – long term strategy, mixed faming systems
Integrated Farm Systems incorporating forestry sinks/erosion control/carbon restoration
Production vs Consumption based GHG Accounting
Need to sell the NZ pastoral grazing story of animal agriculture and food security