1. Learning in Retirement
TempLe BETH El
November 17, 2016

2. Future Changes in the Labor Market
Mark S. LeClair
Fairfield University

3. To get a copy of slides……………….
Go to:
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LIR

4. Questions to be Addressed Today
What jobs are disappearing?
What will they be replaced with?
How to cope?

5. Jobs that are projected to vanish in the next 20 years (many such lists)
Cashiers
Telemarketers (Amen)
Freight/Stock Workers (Warehouse)
Newspaper Delivery
Travel Agents (Demise has been predicted before)

6. Postal Workers
Taxi Drivers/Dispatchers
Word Processors/Typists
Librarians (hmmmm….)
Social Media Managers (skill set will be possessed by most employees)

7. Jobs where employment will likely be lower
Farmworkers (automation)
Textiles/Apparel (overseas competition)
Housekeeping (automation)
Drivers (automation)
Pilots (automation)
Warehouse workers (nearly fully automated)
Lawyers/financial analysts/etc. (web resources)

8. “End of work”? As automation takes over, what do humans do?
Fortune Magazine notes that both the upper end (engineers) and some lower end jobs (plumbers, car mechanics) are probably safe
Many of the lost jobs are high-paying, education-rich
May create societal issues (lots of unemployed lawyers)

9. Note that job creation and destruction has always occurred…………..
Ice men
Low-end manufacturing
Lamplighters
Switchboard operators
Typesetters

10. My worst nightmare….. Professor in a box Automated teaching programs
Or, holographic teaching to multiple classrooms

11. Impact on affected labor markets

12. Will markets clear?
Shift down in demand lowers wages and makes labor more competitive with machinery
Market-clearing wage may be so low as to create social issues
Particularly in the unskilled part of the labor market (e.g. housekeepers)
Will new jobs be created to enable those unemployed to train for new work?
Learning to fix robots that do manual labor

13. What are the jobs of the future?
Medical care workers
Software developers
Cybersecurity
Automation design
Energy Workers
Construction

14. Lists vary widely
Largely depends upon what can and cannot be automated
Impact on the lower end of the labor market likely to worsen income distribution
Can imagine a Luddite-like response by some workers who fear the loss of their jobs

15. Study by MIT on Productivity and Use of Labor
Productivity Rising due to automation
Is not generating employment as it used to do
320,000 robots sold in the two years prior to issuance of report
Trend is likely to accelerate
Burger-flipping machine is already available
Danger in further increasing the minimum wage

16. en

17. London School of Economics
Of seventeen countries examined density of robots increased 150% ( ). Price of robots dropped by as much as 80%
At the start of the period studied, robots were most often used in transportation equipment and metal industries, with approximately and 2.4 robots per million hours worked. After 1992, “the fastest increase in the number of robots per million hours worked took place in the transportation equipment (about 8.1), chemical (about 3.3) and metal (about 1.7) industries.”
Over the period studied, the use of robots led to an increase in both total factory productivity and wages (for those still employed).

18. What happens if the fundamental assumption of scarcity no longer holds?
Production through automation eliminates need to produce more
“All” wants satisfied
Question becomes what will people do with their time
Play video game and watch cat videos all day
Fundamental role of humans changes
Also puts most economists out of business :(

19. Are Robots Even as Infallible as we Imagine Them to be?
Robot Fails
eHOY

20. Supply-Side of Market Complicates Things Further

21. U.S. Labor Force growing – Immigration is a key factor
Unlike in Europe and Japan
Need to create jobs at a greater clip just to keep unemployment steady
Labor Force participation rates are falling, which reduces need for jobs
But, this is probably also bad news
Due mostly to discouraged workers

22. Financial Crisis Has Contributed to Problem
Workers are staying in the workforce later
Not making room for younger members of labor force
Good for social security and Medicare; not good for employment
This is potentially a significant looming social problem

23. Good News is Job Creation is Now Finally Steadier
Despite Anemic Growth in the Economy (1.5%)
This is a short-run phenomenon, however
Long-Term prospects, as noted, are concerning

24. Solution may lie Outside U.S.
Automation only makes sense in a very high income setting
Not in the developing world – labor is inexpensive, plentiful and under-employed
If automation produces an increase in living standards, attention could shift to raising living standards elsewhere

25. Questions and Thank You