Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
1
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria
Ilian Gospodinov National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, Belgrade
2
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria
Verification Atlantic SST/NAO Overview of models Seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria and the SEECOF region
3
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria
+2 warm +1 warm or normal 0 normal -1 cold or normal -2 cold +2 wet +1 wet or normal 0 normal -1 dry or normal -2 dry all categories no forecast Baseline period
4
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria
Temperature Forecast Category Score Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 June 1 0.44 4 3 July 0.22 August -1 1.84 Summer 1.22 2 Skill Precipitation Forecast Category Score Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 June -1 1.28 2 July 1 0.25 3 4 August -1.38 Summer 0.30
5
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria
Skill Temperature Forecast Index Score Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 December -1.29 2 January 1 0.73 4 3 February 1.47 Winter 0.69 Precipitation Forecast Index Score Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 December 1 1.63 3 January -1 0.59 February Winter 1.83
6
Winter Forecast NAO How Bulgarian winters relate to NAO. CD CW WD WW
25 50 NAO- CD CW WD WW NAO+ 25 17 33 NAO-
7
Winter Forecast ENSO/NAO
How Bulgarian winters relate to ENSO La Nina CD CW WD WW NAO+ 32 18 NAO- El Nino CD CW WD WW NAO+ 18 32 NAO-
9
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14
North Atlantic SST
10
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14
North Atlantic SST
11
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14
North Atlantic SST
12
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14
North Atlantic SST
13
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14
North Atlantic SST
14
Winter 2013/14 (NAO & ENSO) NAO forecast – negative or unpredictable.
ElNino/LaNina – indifferent phase.
15
Winter 2013/14 (NAO & ENSO) ENSO 0 CD CW WD WW NAO+ 25 17 33 NAO-
16
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14
Synthesis seasonal outlook for Dec2013-Feb2014 for Bulgaria Temperature EUROSIP ECMWF MetOffice NCEP IRI TCC BCC Syntesis 2014 DJF * Precipitation *
17
Winter 2013/14 by Months Temperature NCEP TCC Ibimet BCC Synthesis December January February Synthesis of monthly predictions for the winter months in Bulgaria Precipitation NCEP TCC Ibimet BCC Синтез December January February
18
Winter 2013/14 Synthesis Temperature Month Winter December January
January February Precipitation Month Winter December January February
19
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
NW Balk NE Balk Black Sea Caucasus SW Balk SE Balk W Cauc E Cauc Greece Aegean Sea NW Turk NE Turk SW Turk SE Turk Mediterranean Sea Israel
20
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
Temperature NWB NEB SWB SEB Greece NWT NET SWT SET WC EC Israel BCC -1 1 2 TCC ECMWF MetOffice NCEP IRI Synthesis -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 EUROSIP
21
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
Precipitaton NWB NEB SWB SEB Greece NWT NET SWT SET WC EC Israel BCC -1 1 TCC ECMWF MetOffice -2 NCEP Synthesis -0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.25 0.4 EUROSIP
22
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region Temperature
-0.2 Black Sea Caucasus 0.2 Aegean Sea Mediterranean Sea Israel 0.7
23
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region Precipitation
-0.4 -0.6 Black Sea Caucasus 0.2 -0.75 0.25 Aegean Sea 0.4 -1 Mediterranean Sea Israel
24
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
25
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
26
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
27
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
28
Seasonal Forecasting at the Bulgarian Weather Service
Ilian Gospodinov National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Similar presentations
