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CLIMATE CHANGE – FUNDAMENTALS
(AGROCLIMATIC CONDITIONS IN BULGARIA AND RESILIENCE АGRICULTURE THROUGH ADAPTATION) Prof. Dr. V. Kazandjiev National Institutte of Meteorology and Hydrology – BAS, IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Daily questions about climate change as: 1
Daily questions about climate change as: 1. When we talk about climate change? 2. What are the climatic anomalies? 3. What are the consequences of climate change? 4. How to mitigate the effects of climate change? 5. Should science to study the processes of climate change? 6. Could there be a sustainable economy in terms of climate change? 7. How to adapt sectors of the economy to climate change? 8. Is the national security depend from climate change?
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Extreme weather events and trends
One of the sectors that significantly affected by climate change is agriculture; From 1970 we have observed an increasing frequency and intensity of dangerous weather conditions for agriculture: - heavy rains and flooding, hail, high winds, drought, heat waves, frost; - change in seasonality of weather, sudden warming in winter and cooling in summer. IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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warming with increased frequency of extremes
Contemporary climate signal : warming with increased frequency of extremes IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Anomalies of air temperature in Bulgaria in comparison with the period 1961-1990
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Spatial presentation of average annual temperatures within the country in °C for the period IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Distribution of the average maximum air temperatures (°C) for the period 1996-2015
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Distribution of average minimum air temperatures (° C) for the period 1996-2015
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Number of summer days with maximum temperature >25 ° C, 1961-1990
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Number of summer days with maximum temperature >25°C, 2021-2050, the regional model ALADIN
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Average annual air temperature for 1961-1990
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Average annual air temperature for 2080 under pessimistic scenario for climate
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Duration (in days) of potential vegetative season
(PVP> 10°C), IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Expected Duration (in days) of potential vegetative season (PVP> 10°C), 2030 + 1 month
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Phenological stages: indicator for warming
Change (in days) for the duration of the inter-stage periods for different types of vegetation: , as compared with IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Extreme weather events:
Extreme high and low temperatures cause heat stress and frost damage to crops that reduce yields; Long periods without rain caused a prerequisite for dry soils and stop growth of crops ; Intense and torrential rains caused flooding and waterlogging of fields planted with crops, leading to wastage of agricultural production; According to climate models calculations frequency of extreme weather events in 2020 will double compared to 1971, and by 2050 it will triple. IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Impact of climate change
Relation between temperature and impacts: The risks intensify as temperature rises. A BAU scenario implies a rise of 4-5 degrees-equivalent to the change in average temperatures from the last ice age to today. 17 IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA Stern,2006 17
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AGRO ECONOMY VULNERABILITY FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE S. EUROPE N. EUROPE INCREASE OF FOREST AREA FOREST FIRE RISK INCREASE OF WATER RESOURCES (2070 ca.1/5) RERUCTION OF WATER RESOURCES ( ca.1/3) Del T (2070s) B1 1-4 A – 5.5 Fire - Portugal HIGHER YIELDS LOWER YIELDS IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Climatic values of annual rainfall for the period 1976-2015
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Deviation of rainfall during the period 1976-2015 to the period 1961-1990
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Climatic limits the amount of rainfall during the period , the red line corresponds to the average amount of rainfall for the country IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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VULNERABILITY Bulgaria Changes (in days) in the duration of a sunflower vegetation to 2080, compared to now, HadCM2 scenario for Balkan Peninsula IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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VULNERABILITY Bulgaria Changes (in percens %) in sunflower production from 2071 to 2080, compared to now, HadCM2 scenario Balkan Peninsula IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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MAIZE 2070-2080 HadCM3 – A2 vs. 1961-1990 Poland BULGARIA
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Changes of yields from wheat (below) and maize (left) under
indirect CO2 effect direct CO2 effect ) % ( -10 s e g n -20 a Vulnerability: h c -30 d CCC l e Changes of yields from wheat (below) and maize (left) under 2xCO2 scenario i GISS y -40 e UK89 z i a -50 OSU M GFDL-R30 -60 HCGG HCGS indirect CO2 effect IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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In Bulgaria the twenty-first century, the most vulnerable will be:
spring crops due to the expected precipitation deficit during the warm half of the year; crops grown on less fertile soils; cultures grown on non irrigated lands; farmland in Southeastern Bulgaria, where even in contemporary climatic conditions are with insufficient rainfall amounts for normal growth, development and formation productivity of agricultural crops. IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Climate change impact on ecosystems, in most cases - negative
Climate change impact on ecosystems, in most cases - negative. The analysis of vulnerabilities in different climatic conditions, evaluation of adaptation measures, action plans, strategies . IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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ADAPTATION The basic strategy for the development of agriculture in this country should be complying with results from Bulgarian and European science of adaptation of agriculture to climate change; A detailed study of agro-climatic resources in order to improve agricultural production and its competitiveness; IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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ADAPTATION 2 Restructuring of agriculture in areas with a focus on maximum utilization of agro-climatic resources for growing basic types of crops; Regionalization and specialization of agricultural production under agro-climatic resources and prepare recommendations for the restructuring of agriculture in Bulgaria; IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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ADAPTATION 3 To apply best agricultural practices using powerful and resistant to drought and diseases varieties and hybrids; Sustainable agriculture with high performance in terms of Bulgaria can only grow under irrigation: increasing of irrigated land in production agriculture; IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS Sofia, JULY - BULGARIA
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Thank you
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