1. Natural Gas in a Low Carb(on) Diet
Energy NewsData Symposium:
NW Electric System and GHG Reduction
October 25, 2016

2. NWGA Members: 1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR 97068
(503)
NWGA Members:
Avista Corporation
Cascade Natural Gas Co.
FortisBC Energy
Intermountain Gas Co.
NW Natural
Puget Sound Energy
Spectra Energy Transmission
TransCanada GTN System
Williams NW Pipeline

3. Historical Energy Production

4. Recent Gas Demand

5. 2016 Outlook Forecast (0.8% CAGR)

6. Demand Scenarios
Explore impact of plausible potential loads not included in Outlook data set:
Industrial Loads
Coal retirement
120 MDth/day (800 MW) in 2 tranches
600 MW in (Centralia)
200 MW in (Boardman)
Heat rate = 7000 Btu/kilowatt-hour
75% utilization rate

7. 16 Outlook Gen Forecast + Scenario (1.8%; 3.6% CAGR)

8. A LESS FAMILIAR STORY: DIRECT USE
“Direct Use” means space conditioning, water heating, cooking & clothes drying
Before we jump in further, lets define what exactly we mean by the “Direct Use of Natural Gas”
Direct-Use refers to natural gas consumed – combusted – directly, used in appliances for space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes-drying. By contrast, some consumers use natural gas indirectly by consuming electricity generated with natural gas.
Through this presentation and in the report, we are concerned primarily with these end uses in the residential and commercial sector. Much of the analysis presented is focused more on the residential sector, and for two reasons: 1) Generally there is better and more up-to-date data available for the residential sector; and 2) The residential sector is easier to describe; the commercial sector is heterogeneous, comprised of buildings from small businesses to schools and hospitals, fast food to warehouses – natural gas usage varies considerably from customer to customer. Much of what we describe in terms of benefits and advantages in the residential sector apply also to the commercial sector. 8

9. Why Direct Use?
The Northwest has a great natural gas infrastructure base that serves 3.5 million households and businesses.
The production, delivery and use of natural gas to buildings is highly efficient: more than 90% of available energy makes it to the burner tip.
Natural gas is a low-carbon fuel with the promise of delivering significant emissions reductions when used directly in a variety of applications.
Natural gas is an affordable energy resource.
The full potential of natural gas as a tool for greenhouse gas emissions reduction is unrealized.
THIS IS THE MONEY SLIDE

11. Average household consumption of natural gas has dropped by half since 1970.
Natural gas use during the past forty years has been relatively flat, even though he natural gas market has grown substantially during this time. Since 1970, more than 30 million more customers have been added onto the natural gas system. While the system has grown, the use of natural gas by individual customers has declined. The result is that the average household today uses 50 percent less natural gas than in This decline in use per customer results from steady improvements to appliance efficiencies, tighter building shells, behavioral changes in gas consumption, and the effectiveness of gas utility efficiency programs.
Source: Energy Information Administration, AGA Calculations

13. OR/WA GHG Emissions, 2012

14. Natural Gas Transportation

15. Production vs. Natural Gas Vehicle Adoption
Dry Natural Gas Production (BCF/Yr)
Top 30 Countries
Natural Gas Vehicles
Top 30 Countries #1
United States
Iran
Russia
Pakistan Argentina
Brazil
China India Italy Colombia
Uzbekistan Thailand Ukranie Bolivia
Iran #4
Canada
Qatar
China Norway Saudi Arabia Algeria Netherlands Indonesia Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Malaysia Egypt Australia
#13
United States
Armenia
Bangladesh
Eygpt Peru
Germany
Venezuela
Russia Bulgaria Malaysia Sweden Japon South Korea
United Arab Emirates Mexico
India
United Kingdom Trinidad and Tobago Pakistan
Argentina Thailand
Nigeria
Oman Venezuela Bangladesh Ukraine Azerbaijan
#27
Burma
Canada
Switerzland
France
Dominican Republic
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0.0 M
1.0 M
2.0 M
3.0 M
4.0 M 10

16. Projected Fuel Price Differentials
Source: EIA 2016 AEO