2. THE ECONOMY

3. PAYROLL JOBS (THOUSANDS)
PAYROLL JOB GROWTH
Selected Large Metro Areas | 12 Months Ending August 2017
PAYROLL JOBS (THOUSANDS)
Updated 10/17 - SB
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2017.

4. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. Selected Large Metro Areas | August 2016 vs
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE * Selected Large Metro Areas | August 2016 vs. August 2017
National Rate
5.0%
4.5%
Updated 10/17 - SB
YoY Basis Point ∆
-50
-20
-70
-90
-60
-10
-30
+30
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2017.
*Not seasonally adjusted.

5. PAYROLL JOBS (THOUSANDS)
PROJECTED JOB GROWTH
Washington Metro Area |
PAYROLL JOBS (THOUSANDS)
Updated 10/17 – SB
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates; October 2017.

6. PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 12 Months Ending August 2017
72,500
-4,900
Updated 10/17 - SB
- Job growth has been uneven, although steadier
than the nation as a whole, due to the federal presence here.
- Explosive growth of the 1980’s followed by the bust of
primarily we lost construction and FIRE jobs
- Then the recovery of the 1990s - with a drag in the period
due to government right sizing.
JOB CHANGE
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2017.

7. PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 12 Months Ending August 2017
Updated 10/17 - SB
- Job growth has been uneven, although steadier
than the nation as a whole, due to the federal presence here.
- Explosive growth of the 1980’s followed by the bust of
primarily we lost construction and FIRE jobs
- Then the recovery of the 1990s - with a drag in the period
due to government right sizing.
JOB CHANGE
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2017.

8. PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 12 Months Ending August 2017
Updated 10/17 - SB
- Job growth has been uneven, although steadier
than the nation as a whole, due to the federal presence here.
- Explosive growth of the 1980’s followed by the bust of
primarily we lost construction and FIRE jobs
- Then the recovery of the 1990s - with a drag in the period
due to government right sizing.
JOB CHANGE
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2017.

9. THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA APARTMENT MARKET

10. Class A Only Past 12 Months: 11,126
LONG-TERM ANNUAL APARTMENT ABSORPTION
National Market Leaders
Class A Only Past 12 Months: 11,126
UNITS (ALL CLASSES)
Use all REIS data and remove text boxes. Add Boston as well as the remaining cities used in the ‘Payroll Job Growth’ slide. Wait for Will to obtain Long Term Annual Apartment Absorption for each area. Ask Jonathan for updates (most recent)
Source: REIS, Delta Associates; October 2017.
Note: Excludes NY metro to conserve scale.

11. CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION
Washington Metro Area |
Average Since 2008 = 7,999
Annual Average ~ 10,000
Long-Term Average = 7,023
MARKET-RATE UNITS
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
*12 months ending September 2017.

12. ABSORPTION PACE UNITS PER PROJECT PER MONTH
Class A Projects in Initial Lease-Up | Washington Metro Area
UNITS PER PROJECT PER MONTH
NUMBER OF PROJECTS IN ACTIVE LEASE UP
Updated 10/17 - SB
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

13. STABILIZED APARTMENT VACANCY RATES
Major Apartment Markets | Second Quarter 2017
National Vacancy Rate = 4.4%
VACANCY RATE (ALL CLASSES)
Updated 10/17 - SB
Use all REIS data and remove text boxes. Add Boston as well as the remaining cities used in the ‘Payroll Job Growth’ slide. CHANGE Was to all three substates (weighted average)
Source: REIS, Delta Associates; October 2017.

14. Long-Term Average Rent Growth = 4.0%
ANNUAL EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH
Class A Apartments | Washington Metro Area |
Long-Term Average Rent Growth = 4.0%
0.2%
Updated 10/17 - SB
Source: REIS, Delta Associates; October 2017.
*12 months ending September 2017.

15. PROJECTS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Northern Virginia
Show all 3 sub state areas.
In Lease-up
Not Yet Leasing
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

16. PROJECTS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Suburban Maryland
Show all 3 sub state areas.
In Lease-up
Not Yet Leasing
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

17. PROJECTS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION
District of Columbia
Show all 3 sub state areas.
In Lease-up
Not Yet Leasing
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

18. Class A Quarterly Absorption = 2,893
APARTMENT DELIVERIES
Washington Metro Area |
Class A Quarterly Absorption = 2,893
MARKET-RATE UNITS
CLASS A
ADJUST YEARS Updated (10/17): Use ‘Tables’ and ‘Table 2.2’ tabs to update – Use ‘Concessions-Absorption Data Entry excl BaltWash’ file in the Data Upload Project Folder to calculate the last 12 quarters of absorption
-SB
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

19. 36-MONTH APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE*
Washington Metro Area |
MARKET-RATE UNITS
Updated 10/17 - SB
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
*Market-Rate Units Planned and Under Construction.
**As of Third Quarter.

20. Class A Projected Quarterly Absorption
PROJECTED DELIVERIES
36-Month Development Pipeline | Washington Metro Area |
Class A Projected Quarterly Absorption
= 2,500
MARKET-RATE UNITS
CLASS A
Updated 10/17 - SB
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

21. DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS
Washington Metro Area Class A Apartments | 36 Months Ending September 2020
DEMAND
Net Absorption:
10,000/Year = 30,000
SUPPLY
MARKET-RATE UNITS (THOUSANDS)
Planned and may
deliver by 9/20:
6,329 units1
Under construction: 28,808 units2
Updated 10/17 - SB
Use Table 2.1 and most recent pipeline tab
Total = 35,137 units
No VA Sub MD The District
1 Probable supply after projected attrition.
2 Includes unleased units at projects in lease-up.
2.9% % %
Projected Stabilized Vacancy % at September 2020
Projected Stabilized Vacancy Rate at Sept. 2020: 3.5% Metro-Wide
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

22. ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 2004 - 2020
Long-Term Average = 4.0%
Updated 10/17 - SB
Get Long-Term average from “Snapshot Data” tab in A Tables.
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
* Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2017 is 0.2%.

23. THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA APARTMENT MARKET

24. CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION
Baltimore Metro Area |
Annual Average ~ 2,000
10-Year Average = 1,689
MARKET-RATE UNITS
Keep at 2007; Use 2016 number from 4Q 2016 Report, use 2016 number from 3Q 2016 Report.
Update w/ Anne Arundel/Howard County
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
*12 months ending September 2017.

25. EFFECTIVE RENT AND VACANCY RATE Class A Apartments | Baltimore Metro Area | 2000 - 2017
STABILIZED VACANCY RATE
AVERAGE EFFECTIVE BASE RENT
Updated 10/17 - SB
Get Long-Term average from “Snapshot Data” tab in A Tables.
3.9% / YEAR
LONG-TERM RENT GROWTH
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
* As of Third Quarter.

26. 36-MONTH APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE*
Baltimore Metro Area |
MARKET-RATE UNITS
Updated 10/17 – SB
Q Report, Q Report (Table 4.1); Update with Anne Arundel and Howard before 2015
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
*Market-Rate Units Planned and Under Construction.
**As of Third Quarter.

27. Projected Stabilized Vacancy Rate at Sept. 2020: 4.2% Metro-Wide
DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS
Baltimore Metro Area Class A Apartments | 36 Months Ending September 2020
DEMAND
Net Absorption:
2,000/Year = 6,000
SUPPLY
MARKET-RATE UNITS
Planned and may
deliver by 9/20:
1,810 units1
Under construction:
6,425 units2
Updated 10/17 - SB
Total = 8,235 units
Baltimore Metro Area
1 Probable supply after projected attrition.
2 Includes unleased units at projects in lease-up.
Projected Stabilized Vacancy Rate at Sept. 2020: 4.2% Metro-Wide
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

28. ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH
Baltimore Metro Area |
Long-Term Average = 3.9%
10/17: update projections - SB
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
* Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2017 is -0.7%.

29. THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AREA CAPITAL MARKETS

30. APARTMENT INVESTMENT SALES
Selected Metro Areas |
BILLIONS
Edit colors for each bar
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Delta Associates; October 2017.
*Sales through September annualized.

31. CLASS A HIGH-RISE APARTMENT CAP RATES Washington Metro Area | 2006 – 2016
Updated 10/17 - SB
Source: Delta Associates Market Maker Survey; October 2017.

32. THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA CONDOMINIUM MARKET

33. LARGEST CONDOMINIUM MARKETS
Selected Metro Areas | 2016
UNITS (THOUSANDS)
10/17- Updated; Use table B25032 through American FactFinder; total 3 to 50 or more units - SB
121
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Delta Associates; October 2017.

34. CONDOMINIUM SALES ACTIVITY
Washington Metro Area | 12 Months Ending September 2017 Compared to Prior Year
Down 26% - 50%
Down more than 50%
Down 1% - 25%
Up more than 1%
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

35. ANNUAL CONDOMINIUM RESALES
Washington Metro Area |
Average From
= 17,890
UNITS
Average Since 2013 =
15,023
Average From
= 11,280
Update 10/17 – SB
Extend back to Change groupings (averages) into 3 separate ones afterwards.
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
*12 months ending August 2017.

36. EFFECTIVE NEW CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE CHANGE
Washington Metro Area |
0.6%
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
*12 months ending September 2017.

37. NEW CONDOMINIUM AVERAGE PRICE PER SF
Washington Metro Area | Third Quarter 2017
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

38. NEW CONDOMINIUM AVERAGE PRICE PER SF
Selected Downtown Areas in the U.S. | Third Quarter 2017*
Source: The Mark Company, Miller Samuel Inc., Delta Associates, October 2017.
*Third Quarter 2017 except for Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens which are as of Second Quarter 2017.

39. RESALE CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE CHANGE
Washington Metro Area |
Updated 10/17 - SB
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
* 12 months ending August 2017.

40. NEW CONDOMINIUMS ACTIVELY MARKETING OR UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Washington Metro Area |
MARKET-RATE UNITS
Updated 10/17 – SB
Extend back to 2003.
2,776
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
Note: Number of units are for September of each year.

41. MONTHS OF NEW CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY
Washington Metro Area |
Updated 10/17 - SB
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
*Fourth Quarter Projection

42. MONTHS OF NEW CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY BY SUBMARKET
Washington Metro Area | Third Quarter 2017
Use Q3 report.
Make names of submarket white – the grey is hard to read.
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.

43. DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS
Washington Metro Area Condominiums | 36 Months Ending September 2020
DEMAND
Net Sales:
2,025/Year = 6,075 units
SUPPLY
Planned and May
Begin Marketing by 9/20: 2,294 units1
MARKET-RATE UNITS
Under Construction and/or Marketing:
2,776 units2
Updated 10/17 - SB
Total = 5,070 units
The District No VA Sub MD
1 Probable supply after projected attrition.
2 Includes unleased units at projects in lease-up.
Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.