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Weather Forecast Verification Using

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Presentation on theme: "Weather Forecast Verification Using"— Presentation transcript:

1 Weather Forecast Verification Using
Matt Pocernich Research Application Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research September 29th, 2006

2 DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h
Facets of Research Applications Lab Decision Support Societal Impacts * Aviation Applications * Hydrometeorological Applications * National Security Applications Weather Systems and Assessment Forecast Verification and Statistics Pronóstico Observado Falsas alarmas Ayudas Ausentes DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h WRF-NMM 10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05

3 Why Verify? Quantify forecast improvements
Identify forecast limitations Compare models Provide diagnostics to model developers and forecasters

4 Types of forecasts Binary or multiple categories forecasts
Point forecasts of continuous variables Probabilistic forecasts Chance of an event Full probability distribution Ensemble forecasts Grid-base spatial forecasts

5 Active area of research
Biased data - spatially, temporally, as a function of intensity Spatial forecasts - issues are complicated by alignment, geometry , intensity and varying scale. Spatial probabilistic ensemble forecasts Developing scale statistics incorporating values of different users.

6 Why R? R is Open Source! R is free Runs on all operating systems
All code is visible Over 1,000 packages donated. Very large, active user base.

7 Origins of R Influenced by two existing languages:
Becker, Chambers & Wilks' S (ATT) Sussman's Scheme Initially written by Ross Ihaka and Robert Gentleman R Apr : k R October 5, 2006 ~ 14Meg

8 The R Community Developers Mailing lists
R Core Group (17 members), only 2 have left since 1997 Major update in April/October (freeze dates, beta versions, bug tracking, ...) Mailing lists Help list ~ 100 messages/day, archived, searchable. Packages – more than 1000 packages (9/2006)

9 r-project.org Contains everything Source code Documentation Newsletter
Mailing list Packages

10 Exercise 1 (Open ex1.r script)
Exploring the R environment Sources of help Importing/ exporting data Data frames and classes of objects Simple plots

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