1. Generations in World Catholicism: An Emerging Narrative
Bryan Froehle
CTSA, June 6, 2008

2. Background Big Picture
Directions in World Catholicism, Mission, Catholicity
Generations and generation stories
Demographics and theology
At Beginning of Project
Creation and analysis of over 10,000 pieces of data
Yet much more needed: preliminary nature
End Point of Project
More story than statistics
More theory than a study of practices and trends
Practical Understanding, Theological Implications

3. From Numbers to Narrative: Numbers
Purpose
Four “Generations” 1970 and before; 2000 and after
More heuristic than “objective” realities: A, B, C, and “D”
Sources
National census and demographics
Church sources (reported by ecclesiastical territory, Annuario Pontificio, resulting in Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae)
Caveats
National census data is incomplete for many countries, especially in 1970
Church data is not always consistent

4. From Numbers to Narrative: The Narrative Side
Purpose
Comparatively understanding today’s generation (“C”) in light of previous generations (“A” and “B”) and beginning to anticipate “Generation D” (2050, as a marker)
“Painting” by number, not an exercise in demographics:
heuristic more than “objective”
Method
Comparative (by region, year, type of data)
Seeing numbers in context, not out of context
Seeing the Story
Picturing practice (beyond limited personal experience)
Implications for theological work: Missiology, Contextual Theology, Ecclesiology, Practical Theology….

5. Initial Observations: Nature of Data
People
Individual level: Population, Catholics, Births, Baptisms
Baptisms are the key measure
Change may come relatively quickly, but double affiliation and on-going statistical fantasies are a challenge
Institutions
Organizational elements: Ecclesiastical Territories, Parishes, Pastoral Centers
Easier to start than end: institutions are communities!
Personnel
Ministerial personnel: bishops, priests, deacons, lay missioners, catechists, etc.
Change is often slowest to observe: life spans combine with organizational rigidities

6. World Catholicism: Distribution of People
1970 Population
1970 Catholics
1970 Baptisms
2000 Catholics
2000 Baptisms
2000 Population
Generation A B C
Africa
10% 6%
12%
11%
19%
13%
America
14%
46%
50%
51%
Asia
57% 8%
15%
60%
Europe
18%
40%
26%
27%
Oceania
<1%
Worldwide
100%

7. Distribution of People World Catholicism in Africa
1970 POP
1970 Catholics (C/Pop)
1970 Baptisms
(IB/Bir, AB/Bir)
2000 Catholics
(C/Pop)
2000 Baptisms
(IB/Bir, AB/Bir)
2000 POP
Generation A B C
AFRICA
10%
6% (21%)
12% (29%, 22%)
11% (22%)
19% (12%, 17%)
13%
North Africa 2%
<1% (<1%)
<1% (<1%, <1%)
West Africa 3%
1% (22%)
2% (19%, 22%)
1% (17%)
5% (9%, 16%) 4%
Central Africa 1%
2% (23%)
4% (25%, 43%)
4% (44%)
5% (17%, 26%)
Southern Africa
1% (23%)
2% (15%, 21%)
2% (9%, 14%)
Indian Ocean
<1%
<1% (25%)
<1% (55%, 56%)
<1% (35%)
<1% (32%, 33%)
East Africa
2% (25%)
3% (28%, 36%)
4% (16%)
6% (13%, 11%)
Nigeria
1.6%
.5% (6%)
1.2% (5%, 8%)
<.1% (14%)
3.1% (8%, 12%)
1.9%
Congo (Kinshasa)
.5%
1.4% (52%)
2.4% (16%, 26%)
2.6% (52%)
2.4% (12%, 18%)
.9%

8. Distribution of People: World Catholicism in America
1970 POP
1970 Catholics (C/Pop)
1970 Baptisms
(IB/Bir, AB/Bir)
2000 Catholics
(C/Pop)
2000 Baptisms
2000 POP
Generation A B C
AMERICA
14%
46% (61%)
50% (58%, 59%)
51% (56%)
51% (39%, 43%)
North America 6%
9% (51%)
8% (40%, 41%)
7% (33%)
7% (25%, 27%) 5%
Caribbean
<1%
2% (47%)
2% (55%, 56%)
2% (41%)
2% (26%, 29%)
Mesoamerica 2%
9% (80%)
13% (71%, 72%)
12% (83%)
16% (64%, 67%)
South America
26% (82%)
26% (56%, 57%)
29% (75%)
27% (53%, 60%)
United States
7% (23%)
7% (26%, 28%)
6% (22%)
6% (25%, 27%)
Brazil 3%
13% (86%)
13% (57%, 59%)
14% (82%)
12% (59%, 66%)

9. Distribution of People: World Catholicism in Asia
1970 POP
1970 Catholics (C/Pop)
1970 Baptisms (IB/Bir, AB/Bir)
2000 Catholics (C/Pop)
2000 Baptisms (IB/Bir, AB/Bir)
2000 POP
Generation A B C
ASIA
58%
8% (4%)
11% (6%, 7%)
10% (8%)
15% (5%, 7%)
60%
Western Asia 3%
.25% (6%)
.21% (2%, 2%)
.43% (5%)
.14% (1%, 1%) 5%
South Asia
20%
1.5% (1%)
2% (.4%, .4%)
1.9% (2%)
2.2% (2%, 2%)
22%
Southeast Asia 8%
6% (2%)
8% (14%, 15%)
7.5% (18%)
11% (15%, 18%) 9%
East Asia
26%
.25% (8%)
.49% (4%, 8%)
.61% (4%)
1% (3%, 8%)
25%
India
16%
1.3% (1.5%)
1.7% (1%, 1.3%)
1.6% (1.6%)
1.9% (1%, 1.3%)
17%
Philippines 1%
5% (81%)
6.5% (66%, 67%)
6% (79%)
9% (70%, 74%)

10. Distribution of People: World Catholicism in Europe
1970 POP
1970 Catholics
(C/Pop)
1970 Baptisms (IB/Bir, B/Bir)
2000 Catholics (C/Pop)
2000 Baptisms (IB/Bir, AB/Bir)
2000 POP
Generation A B C
EUROPE
18%
40% (61%)
25% (56%, 56%)
27% (41%)
14% (42%, 40%)
12%
Northwestern 7%
17% (46%)
10% (51%, 51%)
10% (41%)
5% (37%, 39%) 4%
Southwestern 3%
15% (91%)
10% (84%, 93%)
10% (90%)
5% (86%, 88%) 2%
Eastern 8%
8% (32%)
5% (37%, 37%)
6% (23%)
4% (27%, 29%) 6%
France 1%
7% (90%)
4% (69%, 68%)
5% (76%)
2% (47%, 50%)
Germany
5% (40%)
2% (NA)
3% (33%)
1% (30%, 31%)
Italy
1.5%
8% (97%)
5% (NA)
6% (97%)
3% (87%, 90%)

11. Distribution of Baptism within World Catholicism
1970 All Baptisms per Parish
1970 All Baptisms per Diocesan Priest
1970 All Baptisms per All Priests
2000 all Baptisms per Parish
2000 All Baptisms per All Diocesan Priests
2000 All Baptisms per All Priests
Africa
281
457 91
255
230
103
America
259
410
110
157
201 84
Asia
218
135 46 90 96 41
Europe 34 23 15 25 19
Oceania 72
247 48 81 40
WORLDWIDE
213
295 73
173
137 62
Central Africa
351
429
133
391
233
150
Southwestern Europe 33 22 16 38
Eastern Europe 35 30 21 32 26

12. Ministry Institutions in World Catholicism: Percentage Distribution (Number of Catholics per)
1970
All Ecclesiastical Territories
1970 Parishes Only
1970 Total Pastoral Centers
All Ecclesiastical Territories
2000 Parishes Only
Total Pastoral Centers
Africa
15% (91,392)
3% (5,494)
13% (1,615)
11% (167,688)
5% (9,146)
20% (2,991)
America
36% (257,896)
21% (9,021)
21% (5,886)
51% (310,555)
25% (8,773)
30% (3,909)
Asia
15% (76,300)
5% (4,928)
13% (1,281)
10% (108,301)
9% (13,039)
13% (8,314)
Europe
30% (364,641)
70% (2,293)
51% (1,902)
27% (242,542)
60% (2,337)
36% (2,123)
Oceania
3% (72,455)
1% (1,954)
1% (1,152)
<1% (134,848)
<1% (4,508)
<1% (2,703)
WORLDWIDE
100% (179,945)
100% (5,669)
100% (2,729)
100% (201,898)
100% (11,149)
100% (4,065)

13. Priest Personnel in World Catholicism: Percentage Distribution (Number of Catholics per)
1970 Priests
(C:Priests)
1970
Diocesan Ordinations
Seminarians
2000 Priests (C:Priests)
2000 Diocesan Ordinations
2000 Seminarians
Generation
“A”
“B”
“C”
Africa
4% (1,921) 4% 5%
7% (3,727)
17%
18%
America
28% (3,900)
28%
33%
30% (4,905)
32%
Asia
6% (1,268)
11%
14%
11% (8,700)
16%
24%
Europe
61% (968)
55%
46%
51% (2,215)
34%
Oceania
1% (875)
<1% 2%
1% (1,431) 1%
WORLDWIDE
100% (2,138)
100%
100% (4,437)

14. Personnel in World Catholicism: Percentage Distribution
1970 Deacons
1970 Women Religious
1970
Religious Brothers (Religious Priests)
2000 Deacons
2000 Women Religious
2000 Religious Brothers (Religious Priests)
2000 Lay Missionaries
2000 Catechists
Most Parallels Distribution of:
Total Catholics
Other religious
Nothing
Baptisms
Africa 5% 3%
7% (8%) 1% 7%
14% (7%)
15%
America
36%
29%
30% (34%)
66%
30% (33%)
95%
56%
Asia 4%
8% (8%)
<1%
16%
14% (13%)
10%
Europe
54%
58%
50% (48%)
32%
46%
39% (45%)
19%
Oceania
4% (2%)
3% (2%)

15. Considering Generations in Contemporary World Catholicism
Generations are typically examined in a single cultural context
But what about globalization?
What about a world church, global/transnational linkages?
A generational analysis in the context of a world church
Suggests something about mission and catholicity
Deeper, fresher understanding in contemporary context
It also problematizes the notion of an “other”

16. Suggested Topics from an Emerging Narrative…
Social context, globalization, power
Theological challenge: practice, theory, context,
Method: multiple; numbers to narrative; comparative to theory/theology and back again
Narrating theological trajectories: History, Contemporary, and Long Term

17. Implications: Accounts of Contemporary Catholicism
What theological questions do these emerging accounts engage—missiological, contextual, practical, ecclesiological?
Specifically…
What does the data suggest about today’s Catholic story, and emerging directions of that story?
What does the data suggest about stories we tell ourselves as church?

18. ACROSS THE GENERATIONS: Observations and Theological Implications
Gen C (today): No region predominates
Europe from central to much diminished
Multiple stories into one; each relative to other
Gen D (next): Significant underlying decline
Globally, absolute declines/percentage declines
Demographics, double affiliation mask decline
Growth/Stability higher for “minorities”
Germany; Eastern Europe; USA; India; Nigeria
Pluralism positive; dynamic narrative, civil society
Significant global variation in ministries
Deacons, pastoral centers, lay missionaries
Yet such diversity seems to fit and to work