1. Heartland Area Redwater Project: Seismic Hazard Assessment Preliminary report
Kris Vasudevan and David W. Eaton
Department of Geoscience
University of Calgary
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

2. Outline Project summary - objectives - PSHA current practice
- knowledge gaps
Next steps
- lessons learned from Chile
- recommendations
- refined project objectives
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

3. Project Objectives
Review previous probabilistic studies of seismic hazards
Review geological studies of structures near Redwater
Assess parameters required to improve seismic hazard analysis
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

4. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
PSHA current practice
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

5. PSHA for dams in Alberta
Martens and Atkinson, 2008
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

6. Knowledge Gaps / Inputs Needed
Subsurface fragility: PGA damage threshold for CCS reservoir, seal
design life of the facility
extrapolation from surface to depth
west coast megathrust earthquake, including triggered seismicity
improved seismicity models for Alberta, including induced seismicity
seismogenic potential of the Snowbird Tectonic Zone
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

7. Lessons from the Chile earthquake
Argentina
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

8. Recommendations
A 5-year investigation of regional seismicity characteristics in Alberta using data from new seismograph stations that have recently been installed by the UofC and UofA
[Alberta Geological Survey]
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

9. Recommendations
2) creation and maintenance of a seismicity catalogue including focal mechanisms, to provide new data on regional stress regime;
[Earthquakes Canada, Alberta Geological Survey, Carbon Management Canada]
Ristau et al. 2006
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

10. Recommendations
3) a case study of the STZ where precise hypocentre locations can be compared with existing 3-D seismic data to pinpoint potential seismogenic structures;
[proposed for HARP]
Husen et al., 2004
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

11. Proposed detailed case study of STZ
Precise hypocentres using temporary seismograph network (5 stations) around the Strachan cluster
Along magnetic strike with Redwater
Feasible within available time frame, due to higher microseismic activity
Interpret using 3-D seismic data
STZ
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

12. Recommendations
4) computation of forward and inverse 3-D numerical ground-motion modeling on a basin-wide scale;
[Carbon Management Canada]
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

13. Recommendations [mu-SIC]
5) geomechanical analysis to obtain better constraints on PGA threshold parameters for damage;
[mu-SIC]
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

14. Recommendations
6) collaboration with public-policy agencies and organizations to determine functional storage life parameters needed for probabilistic analysis, and to ensure dissemination and implementation of results of this work
[CMC and Earthquakes Canada]
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

15. Current best practice: Uniform Hazard Spectra
Probability of exceedance: 2% in 50 years
Firm soil (NBC soil class C)
Source: Earthquakes Canada
2010/03/29
ARC Energy

16. Refined Project Objectives
Case study of the STZ [HARP]
Best practice site evaluation: Develop site-specific uniform hazard spectra [CMC phase I]
Monitor CO2 injections for induced microseismicity [HARP / CMC phase II]
2010/03/29
ARC Energy