1. CVEN 5393 Water Resources Management and Design
Lecture 1 – Zagona
January 10, 2011

2. Course Objectives
Learn and apply various quantitative analysis techniques that can support and improve water resources planning and management
What are the goals of water resources P&M?
What are the guiding principles?
What analysis techniques are needed to support effective P&M? .

3. WRP&M Objectives
Objective is to Influence and improve interaction of :
Natural River
Made-made physical intervention
Socio-economic activities (uses, benefits, costs)
Administrative and institutional - laws

4. Spatial and Temporal Scales
Operational forecasting
Near term planning
Long term planning
Sustainability

5. Sustainability
Serve people living today and in the future Anticipate change Robust and resiliant to uncertain future Adaptive strategies

7. Adaptive Management
Process of adjusting management actions and directions as appropriate, in the light of new information on the current and likely future condition of our total environment and on our progress toward meeting our goals and objectives (Loucks and van Beek)
2 major applications:
System is too complex to predict well
Future is too uncertain to predict well

8. Adaptation to Possible Futures
Possible future states are more varied as we move further into the future. Most extreme scenarios are on the surface of the cone. We may not know the risks or uncertainties associated with the future states.

9. 2 Basic Approaches to WRP&M
Top-Down (traditional)
Master planning – based on water availability
Assumption of institutional authority
Bottom-up (recent trend)
Stakeholder participation and decision-making
Challenge?
Many conflicting objectives – “shared vision” planning and modeling needed

10. Integrated Water Resources P&M
Defined by Dublin Principles 1992

11. Integrated Water Resources P&M
A process which promotes coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems.

12. Multiple Objectives of Water Resources Systems
When objectives conflict – how to resolve the conflicts?
How to identify the “best” management to meet the objectives?

13. Analysis Techniques for Effective WRP&M
Modeling
What should be modeled? (What is relevant system?)
What should the model accomplish?
Descriptive: Predict outcomes
– what is response of system to management actions or other changes?
Prescriptive : Identify a solution
– what is best plan given specified objectives and constraints?
What if future is uncertain?
Deterministic vs. probabalistic modeling
What if uncertainty cannot be quantified?

14. Decision Support Systems
DSS is a tool or integrated set of tools that perform quantitative analysis to support decision-making
Models and modeling tools (descriptive and/or prescriptive)
Uncertainty analysis
Economic (benefit / cost and other)
Multi-criteria analysis
Shared vision modeling

15. Class content
Descriptive modeling (simulation, deterministic) also called “scenario” modeling
Prescriptive modeling – optimization solutions
Uncertainty and reliability modeling
DSS – including MCA and shared vision modeling
Homework #1 Read Loucks and van Beek Chapters 1 and 2 and answer questions (see assignment on web page)

16. Simulation with RiverWare
River/reservoir system modeling tool developed at CADSWES and used by water managers
Week of January 17 – tutorial with RiverWare
Assignment will be on Web page and
Work in Bechtel Lab or on your own laptops ( if you want to install on your laptop)