1. Preparations for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol
Markus Amann
Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Preparations for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol
27th Session of the Executive Body of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution
Geneva, December 14-18, 2009

2. Contents State of baseline scenario
Targets for vegetation damage from ozone

3. Availability of national energy scenarios as of December 2009
New national scenarios received
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
PRIMES 2008 Climate & Energy package (NEC report #6)
Czech Republic
Belarus
Austria
Latvia
Denmark
Bosnia-H.
Belgium
Lithuania
Finland
Croatia
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
Greece
Moldova
Cyprus
Malta
Ireland
Russia
Estonia
Poland
Italy
Serbia
France
Romania
Netherlands
Ukraine
Germany
Slovakia
Norway
TFYROM
Hungary
Slovenia
Portugal
Turkey
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland UK

4. Comparison of assumed GDP growth between 2005 and 2020

5. Comparison of oil prices assumed in national scenarios for 2020

6. Comparison of carbon prices assumed for 2020 National scenarios vs
Comparison of carbon prices assumed for 2020 National scenarios vs. PRIMES C&E package

7. Consultation on national baselines http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/Goth_data

8. Consultation on national baselines
Information sent out to national experts Excel sheets on
macro-economic drivers,
activity data,
emission factors,
emissions.
Feedbacks to CIAM invited before end January 2010
Presentation at final baseline at TIAM37, Feb 22-23, 2010

9. Vegetation damage from ozone
Flux calculations suggest different spatial pattern of damage than AOT40
While flux quantifications are not yet available for the relevant tree species,
would targets based on fluxes lead to different emission reduction requirements in Europe?

10. Ozone damage indicators: AOT40 and AFst1.6
AFSt(Y=1.6) for beech
Source: Simpson et al., Env. Poll. (2007)

11. Contributions of NOx and VOC emissions to AFst1
Contributions of NOx and VOC emissions to AFst1.6 EMEP calculations for GAINS 2020 emissions
Contribution of NOx to AFst1.6
Contribution of VOC to AFst1.6

12. Conclusions
Feedbacks to draft national baseline projections invited before end of January 2010.
The use of targets based on O3 fluxes instead of AOT40 would call for even higher NOx reductions in central Europe, on top what is already implied by the targets for health impacts from PM and O3, eutrophication and acidification.
There is a need for robust science and convincing communication to the public about the urgency of vegetation damage from ozone.