1. The Present & Future Outlook of Final Energy Consumption in
Energy & Sustainability
The Present & Future Outlook of Final Energy Consumption in
Myanmar
CBEI Regional Forum 2016

2. Population *
Figure 5: Population change from 1872 to 20148
60.0
51.5
50.0
Population (in millions)
40.0
35.3
28.9
20.0
16.8
14.7
13.2
12.1
10.5
7.7
10.0
2.7
3.7 - •
In April 2014, Myanmar had a nationwide census. The last one we did was in 1983.
Population density of 76 persons per square km. 30% Urban and 70% Rural
8.4% of ASEAN and 5th populous nation. Annual growth rate estimated at 0.89%

3. Primary Energy Production & Consumption
Figure I-12: Myanmar Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) by Sector
Figure I-2: Myanmar Total Primary Energy Production
14,000
20,000
18,000
12,000
16,000
10,000
14,000
12,000
8,000
ktoe
ktoe
10,000
6,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000 - -
Petroleum Products Natural Gas Coal and Lignite Electricity Biomass
Source: Consultant’s estimate based on data of MOE, MOEP, MOGE, MPPE, MOECAF, and CSO
Coal Crude Oil Gas Hydro Biomass
Source: Consultant’s estimate based on data of MOE, MOEP, MOGE, MPPE, MOECAF, and CSO •
TPEP is at Mtoe (Biomass 46% and Natural Gas: 43%) aggregate increase of 3.9% annually.
TFEC is at 14.3 Mtoe (Residential use at 75%, Industry 9%, Transport 6%).
Approximately 8.6 Mtoe of biomass is consumed in the residential sector mainly for cooking.

4. Electricity Consumption•
Only the 30% urban population has access to electricity. Installed capacity of 5,115 MW
Electricity energy consumption :2.22 Mtoe ( 14,398 GWh)
Final electricity consumption per capita is est; 263 kWh/year.

5. Agricultural residues
Solid Biomass Consumption 78
Fuel Utilization – National (% of HH) 3%
Agricultural residues
14%
Electricity
1% LPG
24%
Charcoal
59%
Firewood
Firewood
Charcoal
Agricultural Residues
Electricity
LPG
Solid fuels
Source: Myanmar Household Cooking Survey – TNS (N=803); EMC Analysis •
Rural population depends totally on solid biomass as main energy source.

6. Primary Stove Use Cooking is the main energy consumption.
2%2%1%10%%
Three stone cookstove Charchoal / Multipurpose Electric
Tripod
Mud (Green or baked) stove A1 cookstove
Carved Stone Stove Rice Husk Stove Iron Stove
LPG
Pathein Charcoal Stove A1 Variation Stove Others 5% 6%
35% 7%
15%
27% •
Cooking is the main energy consumption.
The most common type of stove used across the country is the three stone open fire : 35% Majority of rural households use either the three stone,tripod or multipurpose charcoal stoves.
A1 cookstove have the best thermal efficiency and only been used by 5% of the population.

7. Fuel Collection
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10% 5% 0%
45 %
31 %
10 %
6 %
3 %
3 %
3 %
1– 2 bunches
3 – 4 bunches
5 – 6 bunches
7 – 8 bunches 9 – 10 bunches 11 – 15 bunches > 16 bunches
Household Size: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8> •
76% of a typical household will use between 2 to 4 bunches of firewood.
Estimate physical value 20,000 kilo tons of solid fuel wood is used (8 Mtoe) per year.
Firewood collection is getting more and more difficult year by year. Price for firewood is increasing at a compound rate of 10% per annum.

8. Cooking with solid biomass fuel has impacts throughout the supply chain
Collection
Unsustainable collection or harvesting of wood for firewood and/or charcoal can result in:
Tree cover and forest degradation
Localized environmental impacts e.g. mud-slides, loss of watershed, and desertification
Pressures on regional food security and agricultural productivity
Loss of biodiversity
Combustion
Burning of biomass fuels (wood and charcoal) can result in:
Local ambient air pollution
Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP) Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Production
Production of biomass fuels (specifically charcoal) increases:
Local ambient air pollution
Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP) Carbon Dioxide Emissions

9. Forest Cover Assessment
Myanmar Forest Cover, ha 000s
Main Drivers of Forest Loss according to Forest Trends
1. Clearing for expansion of commercial agriculture 45
* At the time of independence in 1948, total forest cover in the country was estimated at 70%. As of 2012, that figure stands at roughly 47%
Thousands of ha 40 35 30
2. Legal and illegal logging 25 20
* According to the latest Global Forest Resources Assessment
3. Clearing for infrastructure, including dams and roads
total “carbon stock in forest biomass” from
living 2040 10 5
million tones in to million tones in 2010
1990
2000
2005
2010 E
Closed Forest
Open Forest •
Biomass fuel collection could be the single a biggest reason on deforestation.
Together with other drivers, we are facing a 6% annual deforestation rate. Combined with global warming there are alarming environmental consequences.

10. Future Population Growth Estimate
Figure III-6: Myanmar Population Forecast: 1950 – 2100
Source: Projections based on a 2010 revision of WPP by UN Population Division (July 2012); data provided in Annex •
We will be a nation of 60 million people by 2030.

11. Future Energy Consumption Projection
Figure I-1: Myanmar: Final Energy Consumption Projection to 2030
Figure I-2: Myanmar: Final Energy Consumption Projection (Medium)
Source: Consultants’ analysis
Source: Consultants’ analysis •
In the case of medium growth final energy consumption to rise at a compound annual growth rate of 3.0% between 2015 to 2030 from 12.7 Mtoe to 21.9 Mtoe.(BAU Scenario)
Assumptions are that biomass consumption will remain stable or slightly reduced due to energy production & access from other alternative sources.
Considering the power conversion losses using electricity for cooking is not efficient.
What if the energy production from alternative sources do not match the energy demand of the rural population? • •

12. Energy Savings Assumptions by using EE Fuel Stove
25.00
20.00
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
20.00
15.00
BAU EE
Biomass EE Biomass BAU
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
5.00 - - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
TFEC between BAU & EE measures (Mtoe)
Biomass saving from EE measures (Mtoe) •
Assumption is based on an ideal setting where the efficiency measure is to have the most impact. By doubling the thermal efficiency of existing methods and universal usage of EE stove by 2030.
Due to efficiency measures, TFEC could change to 18.5 Mtoe instead of 21 Mtoe
Accumulative energy savings equivalent to 19.5 Mtoe Biomass.

13. Fuel Efficient Stove (FES) Production•
We need to have a minimum of 600,000 new fuel efficient stoves manufactured per year. Only 5% is currently being used in Myanmar.
The aim is for “Universal fuel efficient stove usage by 2030”.

14. The following recommendations are structured into the two areas of intervention that should be targeted, the Supply and Demand Side
SUPPLY SIDE
Interventions need to sustain the development and expansion of the currently existing stoves production in the country. Interventions should focus on quality improvements, access to finance and access to markets and financing
DEMAND SIDE
Interventions need to improve the households’ willingness to use improved stoves, by leveraging existing drivers (price, durability), as well as creating awareness about the health and environmental impact of inefficient cooking practices

15. Private Sector Dev. Programs
Work in Progress
Environment Programs
Private Sector Dev. Programs
MFI
Programs
Cookstove
Sector
Livelihood Programs
Health Programs •
Over 50 active programs addressing environmental issues being implemented by over 20 national & international organizations.
Over 20 programs addressing private sector development.
Over 140 recent programs focus on non-agricultural livelihood development programs. •

16. Thank You.