1. Abhishek Nanda Al Khaleej Sugar, Dubai
GLOBAL SUGAR MARKETS
Abhishek Nanda
Al Khaleej Sugar, Dubai

2. Where are the Sugar prices going?
THE MAGIC BALL
Where are the Sugar prices going?

3. BEHIND SUGAR MARKET

4. MARKET TRENDS

5. RAW SUGAR FUTURES PRICES
SOURCE : ICE

6. PRODUCTION VERSUS CONSUMPTION
SOURCE : FO LITCH

7. GLOBAL SURPLUS/DEFICIT (000 MT)
SOURCE : FO LITCH

8. NY11 FUTURES VOLUME & OI (LOTS)
EVOLUTION OF THE TRADE
NY11 FUTURES VOLUME & OI (LOTS)
SOURCE : BLOOMBERG

9. SPECULATORS IN SUGAR NY11
lots
SOURCE : MAREX RESEARCH

10. BEHIND SUGAR MARKET

11. DRIVERS OF SUGAR PRICES
BRAZIL
INDIA
CHINA
BIG 5
THAILAND
EUROPE

12. BRAZIL Production capacity : Sugar production: Crop Switch:
Almost stagnant since last 3 years with no/limited new investments .
Sugar production:
Ethanol/Sugar allocation mix
Gasoline Price
Taxation
weather conditions
Crop Switch:
Nature of cane (5-6 harvests)
Interdependency between Agriculture and Industrial side.

13. BRAZIL (CS)
SOURCE : UNICA

14. EUROPEAN UNION (EU)
Quota Regime- Minimum Price was guaranteed on the Production Quota
Before 2006
Short Term Impact:
Additional million MT exports for
Long Term Impact :
Structural Changes in White Sugar Market

15. EUROPE AND RUSSIA (EXCLUDING EU)
‘000 MT
Covering Norway, Russia, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine
SOURCE : FO LITCH

16. THAILAND
SOURCE : FO LITCH

17. INDIA

18. CHINA
Per MT Prices in USD/MT
SOURCE : BLOOMBERG

19. CHINA
SOURCE : FO LITCH

20. CONSUMPTION COMPLEX Consumption Increase/decrease:
= Total Population X Increase /decrease in per capita consumption*
*Per capita consumption may be misinterpreted because of:
Stock holding at different intermediaries and
Trading by different intermediaries

21. GLOBAL CONSUMPTION
‘000 MT
SOURCE : FO LITCH

22. CURRENT PRICES NY11
SOURCE : BLOOMBERG

23. ITS ALL ABOUT PERSPECTIVES!
VS.

24. A PERSPECTIVE Global Stocks Ended 2016/2017 at 5 years low. (‘000 MT)
SOURCE : FO LITCH

25. A PERSPECTIVE
The Crop Expectations for and transition to surplus is basis favorable weather conditions across producing countries.
Sugar-Ethanol Parity in Brazil
Indian Buying Expectation
Non Commercials (funds) shorts at plus lots short in NY11 contract
Additional Chinese Buying

26. A PERSPECTIVE The Expected surplus
Non Commercials (funds) may further increase the shorts
In Brazil the Ethanol Parity back to below sugar
Self Sufficient India
No further buying from China

28. Shukran
Thank you