1. Atmospheric Stability Analysis
Team Crafty
Shawn Roj, Chris Garner, and Mason Lynch
ATMS 611/411
October 16, 2017

2. Fort Worth, Texas Upper Air Sounding
Description
Fort Worth
Sounding Values
Lifting Condensation Level (LCL)
882.4 mb, ~ 1,140 m
Level of Free Convection (LFC)
855.6 mb, ~ 1,420 m
Equilibrium Level (EQLV)
138.3 mb, ~ 14,500 m
LFC
372.1 K (98.95 C)
Calculated CAPE
7,376 J/kg (3%)
Calculated Vertical Velocity at EQLV
62.5 m/s
Calculated Precipitable Water
48 mm (8%) E

3. Stability

4. Stability

5. Geopotential Height 500 mb Reanalysis
Low heights
Counter Clockwise
High heights
Clockwise
Max. winds north of FWD
Min. winds Mexico and Gulf of Mexico L
FWD H

6. 1997 Central Texas Tornado Outbreak Jarrell, Texas May 27, 1997
top 3-second gusts of mph

7. Synoptic Scale Jet Stream Unstable
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Unstable

8. Springfield, Missouri Upper Air Sounding
High CAPE value
Sounding Balloon appears to have failed just above the 500 mb level. CAPE value was likely higher than shown
Zero convective inhibition – If an air parcel can reach the LFC, rapid growth of thunderstorms is possible
Sounding location is about 70 miles east of Joplin, Missouri
Description
Springfield
Sounding Values
Equivalent Potential Temperature (qE)
352.0 K (78.85 C)
Lifting Condensation Level (LCL)
908.2 mb, ~ 908 m
Level of Free Convection (LFC)
879.6 mb, ~ 1,219 m
Equilibrium Level (EQLV)
160.4 mb, ~ 13,411 m
Calculated CAPE
4,577 J/kg (2.5%)
Calculated Vertical Velocity at EQLV
47.3 m/s
Calculated Precipitable Water
41.7 mm (5.5%) E

9. Stability

10. Geopotential Height 500 mb Reanalysis
Low heights
Counter Clockwise flow
High heights
Clockwise flow
Maximum winds on south side of Low
Minimum winds in Mexico and across the Gulf of Mexico L
SGF H

11. CONCLUSIONS Joplin, Missouri Tornado May 23, 2011IA
CONCLUSIONS Joplin, Missouri Tornado May 23, 2011 NE IL IN KS MO
Springfield, MO KY OK TN AR TX MS AL
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12. Joplin Tornado EF-5 Multi-Vortex wedge tornado
Part of larger tornado outbreak
Max width of 1 mile
Many fatalities
Est. $2.8 billion in damage
Springfield, MO received about 12.7 mm of rain (0.5”)
Joplin, MO received up to 50 mm of rain (2.0”)
top 3-second gusts of mph
Joplin Tornado

13. Omaha, Nebraska Upper Air Sounding
Description
Omaha
Sounding Values
Equivalent Potential Temperature (qE)
361.3 K (C)
Lifting Condensation Level (LCL)
886.8 mb, ~ 750 m
Level of Free Convection (LFC)
707.9 mb, ~ 3,200 m
Equilibrium Level (EQLV)
136.0 mb, ~ 14,855 m
Calculated CAPE
3,416 J/kg
Calculated Vertical Velocity at EQLV
41.3 m/s
Calculated Precipitable Water
50 mm
EQLV
CAPE E
LFC
CIN
LCL

14. Stability ѲE Stable Ѳ Stable Unstable ѲE Stable Neutrally Stable

15. Geopotential Height 500 mb Reanalysis
Low heights
Counter-Clockwise
High heights
Clockwise
Max. winds
North of OAX, Northern U.S. and Southern Canada
Min. winds
Mexico and the Midwest
OAX H L

16. Conclusions
Tropical Storm Edouard
25 kts wind speed
Winds variable

17. Tropical Storm Edouard

18. Summary of Soundings Description Springfield Sounding Values
Fort Worth
Omaha
Equivalent Potential Temperature (qE)
352.0 K (78.85 C)
372.1 K (98.95 C)
361.3 K (C)
Lifting Condensation Level (LCL)
908.2 mb, ~ 908 m
882.4 mb, ~ 1,140 m
886.8 mb, ~ 750 m
Level of Free Convection (LFC)
879.6 mb, ~ 1,219 m
855.6 mb, ~ 1,420 m
707.9 mb, ~ 3,200 m
Equilibrium Level (EQLV)
160.4 mb, ~ 13,411 m
138.3 mb, ~ 14,500 m
136.0 mb, ~ 14,855 m
Calculated CAPE
4,577 J/kg
7,376 J/kg
3,416 J/kg
Calculated Vertical Velocity at EQLV
47.3 m/s
62.5 m/s
41.3 m/s
Calculated Precipitable Water
41.7 mm
48 mm
50 mm