1. The Challenge of Shared Growth in Africa
John Page Chief Economist, Africa Region The World Bank May 29, 2006

2. Growth in Africa has lagged other regions
Per capita GDP Growth
Growth Performance

3. African per capita income is now increasing in tandem with other developing countries . . .
Annual Change in Real per capita GDP %
Forecast
2008
Regional Comparisons
Source: World Bank

4. Diversity in Country Performance
And Africa’s diverse growth experience is becoming increasingly diverse
Diversity in Country Performance

5. Macroeconomic management has improved
SSA
Oil-
Exporting oil
Countries
importing
countries 6 10 14 18 22 26
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Inflation,
(Percent)
Source: IMF, SSA Regional Economic Outlook.
A structural shift?

6. Structural policies have improved
A structural shift?

7. There is increasing pressure for capable and accountable states
African Political Values
Data source: World Value Survey ( ) wave, 6 countries, Afrobarometer survey, , 12 countries.
A structural shift?

8. And Africa’s best performers are on par with India, Vietnam
A structural shift?

9. But while African growth has picked up, East Asia has soared
GDP per capita (index 1965=100): Africa and East Asia
A structural shift?

10. Building the private sector
Africa lags other regions in the cost of doing business
Ease of doing business rank, Simple average by region
Data sources: The World Bank Doing Business Database, 2005 survey.
Building the private sector

11. Building the private sector
Businesses encounter more obstacles in Africa
Average ranking for Doing Business Indicators
Data sources: The World Bank Doing Business Database, 2005 survey.
Building the private sector

12. Exports are important but not growing
Creating an export push

13. But, factory floor costs compare well with India and China
Direct cost per male shirt
Creating an export push

14. Creating an export push
Inadequacies of finance and infrastructure limit competitiveness
Creating an export push

15. Inequality limits the benefits of growth to the poor
The Poor as Percent of Total Population and Inequality:
Omitted slide: HIV/AIDS threatens lives and livelihoods could be referred to verbally. No sex disaggregation of the data therein. Also omitted: rural/urban divide and lags in secondary and tertiary education – again could be referenced verbally.
Also omitted: reference to ODA and to international respoinse to AFR, including market access for processed goods.
Data sources: The World Bank Global Poverty Monitoring Database
Shared growth

16. The interface between gender and growth
How does “gender” fit with this picture of the growth challenges for Africa?
“Women make a greater contribution to economic life than their menfolk” Africa Commission Report, 2005
Economic opportunity is differentiated along gender lines
Gender differences in access to and control of resources affect growth, productivity, and incentives
The interface between gender and growth

17. Gender and Growth: What’s the evidence?
Mix of macro (regressions) and micro (case studies)
Convergence of message – gender inequality affects growth
BUT – outside mainstream economic analysis and debate
The interface between gender and growth

18. Closing the gender gap in schooling boosts economic growth4
Actual growth rate 3
Projected growth rate
(percent)
Average annual growth in
per capita GNP, 2
III. Implications 2: This is the analysis from WDR 2000/01, building on what Stephan Klasen did for the GGPR report. The findings confirm that reducing gender inequality in schooling is good for growth in Africa, and elsewhere in the world.
Gender and growth. The results of both the macro- and micro-level analyses of the links between gender inequality and growth portray a remarkably consistent picture of gender-based asset inequality acting as a constraint to growth and poverty reduction in SSA. Gender inequality in education seems to lower economic growth through its association with higher population growth, with lower investment rates, and the role of female education in increasing the productivity of the workforce. This is a very robust finding.
At East Asian pace of reducing gender gap in schooling.
These factors combined are estimated to have reduced SSA’s per capita growth in the period by 0.7 (0.8) percentage points per year. If SSA had had the lower gender inequality in education that prevailed in East Asia.
Eliminating these inequalities is equivalent to doubling Africa’s annual per capita income growth, and nearly doubling per capita income in MENA and South Asia.
Confirmed by “Can Africa Claim the 21st Century?” Study:
“Women are one of Africa’s hidden growth reserves, providing most of the Region’s labor, but their productivity is hampered by widespread inequality in education and access. … Gender equality can be a potent force for accelerated poverty reduction.” 1
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Middle East/North Africa
Source: “Engendering Development” (PRR) 2001,
in WDR 2000/01, “Attacking Poverty”.

19. Gender and Growth: Micro
Burkina: Shifting existing resources between men’s and women’s plots could increase output by 10-20%
Kenya: Giving women farmers the same agric. inputs and education could increase yields by > 20%
Tanzania: Reducing women’s time burdens could increase cash incomes for women farmers by 10% & labor productivity by 15%
The interface between gender and growth

20. Economic Inclusion? Gender & Business
Women enterprises face additional obstacles, esp. in access to finance (linked to land rights)
“How can property own property?” (HRW 2002)
Source for Charts: Kirkpatrick and Lawson (2004) in Amanda Ellis et al. “Gender and Economic Growth in Uganda: Unleashing the Power of Women,” World Bank, Directions in Development, 2006.
Building the private sector

21. The interface between gender and growth
What Next?
Analysis and policy prescriptions relating to economic opportunity, incentives, and productivity, need to address gender disparities
World Bank Initiatives
Gender Action for Economic Empowerment of Women under preparation
Propose Major Research Project on Gender and Growth
Flagship Regional Report on Growth w/ Gender
Incentives to carry out engendered economic analysis in AFR
The interface between gender and growth