1. SW-Monsoon 2017 and Kharif Crop Prospects
Presented by:
Aurobinda Prasad
Vice President /

2. Rainfall Forecast (% of LPA) Actual Rainfall (% LPA)
Monsoon Meter
Preliminary Forecast
Forecast On-Set Date
Actual Onset Date
Rainfall Forecast (% of LPA)
Actual Rainfall (% LPA)
18 Apr 2017
30 May ± 4 day
??? 96
12 Apr 2016
7th June
8th June
106 97
22 Apr 2015
30th May
5th June 93 86
24 Apr 2014
6th June 95 88
26 Apr 2013
3rd June
1st June 98
26 Apr 2012 99 92
19 Apr 2011
101
Source: Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)

3. Monsoon: GDP & Inflation Relation
IMD’s initial forecast date
Actual Rainfall (% LPA)
Growth in Agricultural GDP (%)
Food Inflation(%)
Food Inflation Index
18 Apr 2017
???
3.50 (E)
12 Apr 2016 97
4.15
4.11
134.9
22 Apr 2015 86
1.20
2.64
131.5
24 Apr 2014 88
-0.20
5.67
124.5
26 Apr 2013
106
4.20
12.32
110.9
26 Apr 2012 92
1.50 -
19 Apr 2011
101 5
Source : IMD , Office of Economic Advisor (GOI) and Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Note: Food Inflation: Yearly Average

4. Agriculture share in GDP

5. Kharif Production Scenario
Production of Major Kharif Crops (in Million Tonnes)
Kharif Crops
% Change
Total Kharif food-grains
128.06
125.09
138.04
10%
Rice
91.39
91.41
96.09 5%
Total Coarse Cereals-
30.94
28.15
32.84
17%
Total Pulses
5.73
5.53
9.12
65%
Total Oilseeds
19.18
16.68
22.81
37%
Cotton
348.05
300.05
325.76 8%
Sugarcane
362.33
348.48
306.02
-12%
Coarse Cereal: Jowar, Bajra, Maize and Ragi
Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics; Department of Agriculture; Cooperation & Farmers Welfare
Note: Production in million bales of 170 kgs. each.

6. Rising Minimum Support Price (MSP)
Kharif Crops
2 yr % Change
PADDY
1360
1410
1470
8.1%
MAIZE
1310
1325
1365
4.2%
ARHAR(Tur)
4350
4425
4625
6.3%
MOONG
4600
4650
4800
4.3%
URAD
4575
5.2%
COTTON (Medium Staple)
3750
3800
3860
2.9%
COTTON (Long Staple)
4050
4100
4160
2.7%
GROUNDNUT IN SHELL
4000
4030
4120
3.0%
SOYABEAN (Yellow)
2560
2600
2675
4.5%
Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices (CACP)

7. Kharif Scenario

8. Policy Initiatives
Schemes like Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY) helps in developing organic
clusters & make available chemical free inputs to farmers
100 per cent FDI under automatic route for development of seeds
100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is allowed under automatic route in storage & ware housing including cold storages
Other steps include Pradhanmantri Gram Sinchai Yojana (PGSY) that ensures improved access to irrigation; creation of an unified national agricultural market which would help boost the incomes of farmers
Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) In 2016, Central Government launched PM Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana for providing financial support to farmers & cover their crop losses. The scheme covers rabi, kharif crops as well as annual horticultural & commercial crops

9. Suggestions Walk the Talk (MSP)
Support the farmers in excessive supply scenario (Current pulses scenario)
Stock limit should be abolished at least in surplus commodities
Open exports for Agri commodities (Pulses)

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