1. Systematic & rapid assessment of concessions using GIS & remote sensing The case of economic land concessions in Cambodia
Daphne Yin, Indufor North America*
World Bank Land & Poverty Conference
Washington, DC – 22 March 2017
* Paper produced by Tim Fella, Sepul Barua, Lauri Tamminen, Juha Leppänen, and Jeffrey Hatcher on behalf of Forest Trends, with inputs from Naomi Basik Treanor and Daphne Yin.

2. Background
Context
Rapid increase in allocation of large-scale commercial land concessions in developing countries; process of granting and managing concessions often entails social displacement, deforestation, and lack of monitoring and legal enforcement
Question
What are the net benefits (or costs) related to economic land concessions on forestland?
Our approach
Lightweight GIS and remote sensing data analysis + cost-benefit analysis
Case study
Determine costs and benefits of land use scenarios for Economic Land Concessions in Cambodia:
Sustainable forest management
Forest conversion to agroindustry
Forest clearance without planting

3. Cambodia case study / Context
Forest Trends (2015). Deforestation, Cambodia.
Ethan Crowley (2013). Rubber plantation, Cambodia.

4. Cambodia case study / Methods
Steps
Remote sensing analysis
Determine forest loss for all ELCs and whether concession has been exploited within 12 months, drawing from ODC data, Hansen et al. tree cover loss maps, and national land use/land cover maps
Overlay census data to estimate the number of households potentially impacted by the granting of concessions
Cost-benefit analysis
For forested ELC land, calculate environmental, social, and financial costs that may have been incurred by government and neighboring communities in three different scenarios, drawing from data and average assumptions about revenues and costs:
Sustainable forest management, no concession granted
Forest clearance with planting (rubber)
Forest clearance without planting

5. Cambodia case study / Data sources
Method
Data sources
Remote sensing analysis
Concession data for ELCs granted for conversion to agriculture from Open Development Cambodia, based largely on gov documents (available ):
Investor country of origin
Date concessions were granted
Concession size
Location
Est. population in concession boundaries
Intended crop
Extent of crop planting
Forest and LU/LC maps, Open Development Cambodia
Cost-benefit analysis
Timber prices, Hugh Blackett (2008) & Indufor databank
Carbon offset prices, Ecosystem Marketplace (2015)
Transaction costs for carbon offset PD/marketing, Angelsen (2011)
NTFP income, Yem et al. (2011)
Value of watershed conservation & maintained/improved water quality, Rattanak (2014), Yem et al. (2011), Hansen & Top (2006)
Rubber latex price (Index Mundi)

6. Cambodia case study / Data sources
Open Development Cambodia (2016). Economic land concessions.

7. Cambodia case study / Method limitations
Remote sensing analysis
Hansen data covers tree cover loss, not deforestation
Estimates of the share of deforested areas planted by 2015 are indicative only
Limited resolution of satellite imagery
ELC shape files only existed for 220 out of 270 concessions
Cost-benefit analysis
Estimates of population potentially impacted by ELC are conservative, only including populations located within ELC boundaries, excluding those adjacent
Analysis assumes no illegal logging in SFM, which is often not the case
Analysis does not quantify more indirect benefits of SFM such as human health benefits, scenic beauty, biodiversity conservation, and pollination services
Model assumes all timber and rubber-related royalties and taxes are collected and paid by stakeholders, not always the case

8. Cambodia case study / GIS analysis
Maps of concessions granted to Cambodian company

9. Cambodia case study / GIS findings
~275,338 households located in the boundaries of the 220 ELCs, 425,377 households when the range extended to within 1 km of ELC boundaries
12% of Cambodia’s total land area allocated for ELCs, 79% of which was forested
Overall exploitation of ELC land is low. 20% of total area allocated for the 220 ELCs analyzed were planted. 80% of ELC land has yet to be planted.
Of the forestland allocated for ELCs, 36% was cleared as of 2015, lower than expected. 72% of forestland cleared on ELC land has been planted.
36% of reviewed ELCs did not begin clearing forest or planting within 2 years of obtaining the concession, noncompliant with Cambodian land law
18% of reviewed ELCs could be linked to conversion timber, i.e. forest clearance without planting. Half of the 80 ELCs that were noncompliant with exploitation requirements had cleared 150+ hectares but never planted/developed the land
Investor origin is only available for half of ELCs potentially linked to conversion timber

10. Cambodia case study / CBA assumptions
Scenario
Costs
Benefits
Scenario 1: Sustainable forest management
Foregone rubber latex export taxes & charges
Forgone job opportunity from rubber plantations/industry
Foregone tax on local sale of rubber wood
Illegal logging
Foregone land concession and concession-related fees
Foregone taxes & charges of exporting timber from rubber plantations
Admin costs of monitoring sustainable forest management
Sustainable timber harvesting revenue
Taxes & charges of exporting timber harvested sustainably & value-added products
Local job opportunity from sustainable timber harvesting
NTFP revenue
Watershed conservation & maintaining/improving water quality
Net carbon revenue
Scenario 2: Forest clearance with planting
Foregone sustainable timber harvesting revenue
Foregone job opportunity from sustainable timber harvesting
Social displacement
Damage to watershed & water quality
Foregone net SFM carbon revenue
Concession related forestry admin costs
Foregone NTFP income
Foregone taxes & charges of exporting sustainable timber & value-added products
Rubber latex export taxes & charges
Job opportunity in rubber sector & due to conversion timber
Tax on local sale of rubber wood & fuelwood
Land concession and other concession-related fees
Royalty from conversion timber
Taxes & charges of exporting rubber wood & conversion timber & value-added products
Scenario 3: Forest clearance without planting
Same cost categories as Scenario 2
Initial concession related fees
Taxes & charges of exporting conversion timber & value- added products
Unreturnable concession deposit
Local job opportunity due to conversion timber

11. Cambodia case study / CBA results
Net benefits per hectare across scenarios

12. Cambodia case study / CBA results
Net benefits across scenarios

13. Cambodia case study / CBA findings
Forest clearance combined with planting for agro-industry offers the highest net benefits
Sustainable forest management is a net benefit land use option, without accounting for indirect benefits such as human health benefits, scenic beauty, biodiversity conservation, and pollination services
Increased exploitation of ELCs would increase the net benefits from agroindustry
The Government of Cambodia and local communities incur significant long-term costs as a result of forest clearance without planting afterward

14. Daphne Yin Consultant Indufor North America daphne.yin@indufor-na.com
Jeffrey Hatcher
Managing Director
Indufor North America
Indufor Oy
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