1. CariCOF Climate Outlook
July-August-September 2017
and October-November-December 2017
Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
Participating territories
Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

2. Regional Climate Outlook Forums CariCOF - FCAC

3. rainfall

4. JAS Rainfall O month lead (ML)

5. CPT probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May(data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , June initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS
Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JAS data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation).
Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

6. CPT probabilistic JAS Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:2
Initial :468
Values : 20
Index : 0.250
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 5
Used : 424
Stations : 10
Moderate
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 7
Experiment 2
CCA modes:1
Initial : 468
Index :0.166
90-20W & 30-0N
!Limited!
Y modes : 2
Experiment 3
CCA modes:3
Index : 0.287
Fair
CFSv2
Y modes : 5
Experiment 4
Index :0.265
Y modes : 1

7. CPT probabilistic JASRainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used : 424
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:2
Index :0.270
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 426
Fair
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 2
Experiment 7
Index :0.241
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 7
Moderate
Y modes :2

8. ONDRainfall 3 month lead (ML)

9. CPT probabilistic OND rainfall forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May(data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , June(initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND
Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over OND (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, June ( initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND.

10. CPT probabilistic OND Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:2
Initial :468
Values : 20
Index : 0.158
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Used : 408
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes :4
Experiment 2
CCA modes:1
Initial : 468
Index :0.130
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 1
Y modes : 1
Experiment 3
Index :0.159
X modes : 2
CFSv2
Y modes : 2
Experiment 4
Index :0.150
X modes : 4

11. CPT probabilistic OND Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used : 426
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:2
Index :0.184
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 3
Used : 421
!Limited!
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes :2
Experiment 7
Index :0.160
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 6
Y modes :3

12. CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2017

13. CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October –November-December 2017

14. precipitation outlooks

15. Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts
Nine data sources (incl. GPCs):
IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance);
UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast;
European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts;
APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts;
WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME.
CFSv2 model
MétéoFrance Arpège model.
JMA model
Environment Canada CMC model
Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T2m outlooks (see Appendix).
Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise:
SSTs in the Niño region of the Pacific have recently been warming up to borderline El Niño conditions (Niño 3.4 SST anomalies around +0.5°C). Most models, suggest temperature anomalies to either remain slightly positive by JAS, favouring neutral (60% confidence) over weak El Niño. By OND, the models have the same confidence in both scenarios (40-45% confidence). Compared to previous updates, this means a much decreased chance for El Niño.
Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTs east of the Caribbean have warmed significantly, especially near the west African coast, to 0.5-1°C above average. By comparison, SSTs are now 0-0.5°C above avg. in the Caribbean Sea as well as in the TNA north of the islands. Some models suggest a gradual return to values close to average in the eastern TNA, while anomalies are predicted to remain largely unchanged by OND elsewhere.
With ENSO conditions predicted to be warm neutral to borderline El Niño, impact on Caribbean rainfall is expected to be limited. However, if El Niño were to manifest, chances for drier than usual conditions in the southern Caribbean and Guianas would increase.
Warm SSTs east of the Caribbean may lead to above-average humidity and atmospheric instability in the wet season, which tilts the odds towards a wetter wet season, and more intense hurricane season.
With SSTs remaining above average throughout much of the region, air temperatures are also expected to be warmer than average, but wetter than usual conditions during the wet season will push down max temps.

16. Probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast map

17. Probabilistic OND rainfall forecast map

18. MEAN 2m temperature

19. JAS Temperature O month lead (ML)

20. CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , Jun initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Jun initialisation).

21. CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Initial :68
Values : 20
Index : 0.281
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Used : 47
Stations : 10
Fair
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 2
Experiment 2
Initial : 68
Index : 0.182
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 6
!Limited!
Y modes : 3
Experiment 3
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.251
CFSv2
Y modes : 7
Experiment 4
CCA modes: 1
Index : 0.230
Moderate
Y modes : 1

22. CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial :
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 68
Index : 0.310
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 44
Good
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 2
Experiment 7
Index : 0.287
90-20W & 30-0N
Fair

23. OND Temperature 3 month lead (ML)

24. CPT probabilistic OND 2m Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , Jun initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over OND (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Jun initialisation).

25. CPT probabilistic OND 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Initial :68
Values : 20
Index : 0.133
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Used : 45
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 5
Experiment 2
CCA modes: 3
Initial : 68
Index : 0.017
90-20W & 30-0N
!!Very Limited!!
Experiment 3
Index : 0.150
CFSv2
Experiment 4
Index : 0.129
X modes : 5
X modes : 3
Y modes : 4

26. CPT probabilistic OND 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial :
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 68
Index : 0.204
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 4
Used : 45
Moderate
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 6
Experiment 7
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.192
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 7
!Limited!
Y modes : 4

27. CariCOF Objective Mean T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July – August- September 2017

28. CariCOF Objective Mean T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October –November - December 2017

29. Temperature outlooks

30. Probabilistic JAS 2m Temperature forecast map

31. Probabilistic OND 2m Temperature forecast map

32. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2m temperature

33. JaS Max. Temperature O month lead (ML)

34. CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Max. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , June initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation).

35. CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 3
Initial :52
Values : 20
Index : 0.249
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 5
Used : 40
Stations : 10
Moderate
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 6
Experiment 2
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 52
Index : 0.168
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 7
!Limited!
Y modes : 4
Experiment 3
CCA modes: 8
Index : 0.218
CFSv2
Experiment 4
Index : 0.179

36. CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 52
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.223
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 39
Moderate
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 4
Experiment 7
Index : 0.267
90-20W & 30-0N
Fair
Y modes : 3

37. OND Max. Temperature 3 month lead (ML)

38. CPT probabilistic OND 2m Max. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , June initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over OND (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation).

39. CPT probabilistic OND 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Initial :52
Values : 20
Index : 0.184
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Used : 39
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 6
Experiment 2
CCA modes: 3
Initial : 52
Index : 0.089
90-20W & 30-0N
!!Very Limited!!
Y modes : 5
Experiment 3
Index : 0.210
X modes : 6
Moderate
CFSv2
Y modes : 7
Experiment 4
Index : 0.142
X modes : 3
Y modes : 2

40. CPT probabilistic OND 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 52
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Index : 0.229
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 4
Used : 39
Moderate
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 6
Experiment 7
CCA modes: 4
Index :
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 7
!Limited!

41. CariCOF Objective Maximum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2017

42. CariCOF Objective Maximum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October-November-December 2017

43. Probabilistic JAS 2m Maximum Temperature forecast map

44. Probabilistic OND 2m Maximum Temperature forecast map

45. JAS Min. Temperature O month lead (ML)

46. CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Min. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , June initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation).

47. CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 3
Initial :52
Values : 20
Index : 0.186
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 5
Used : 41
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 5
Experiment 2
Initial : 52
Index : 0.096
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 6
!!Very Limited!!
Experiment 3
Index : 0.202
Moderate
CFSv2
Experiment 4
Index : 0.162
Y modes : 6

48. CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 52
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Index : 0.241
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Used : 40
Moderate
NMME
Y modes : 8
Experiment 7
Index : 0.205
90-20W & 30-0N
Y modes : 3

49. OND Min. Temperature 3 month lead (ML)

50. CPT probabilistic OND 2m Min. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , June initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over OND (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation).

51. CPT probabilistic OND 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:2
Initial :52
Values : 20
Index : 0.087
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 5
Used : 41
Stations : 10
!!Very Limited!!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 5
Experiment 2
CCA modes: 3
Initial : 52
Index :
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 4
Negative Skill
Y modes : 7
Experiment 3
CCA modes: 2
Index : 0.098
X modes : 2
CFSv2
Y modes : 2
Experiment 4
Index : 0.118
X modes : 7
!Limited!
Y modes : 4

52. CPT probabilistic OND 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 52
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Index : 0.143
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 4
Used : 39
!Limited!
NMME
Y modes : 8
Experiment 7
Index : 0.138
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes :6
Y modes : 7

53. CariCOF Objective Minimum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2017

54. CariCOF Objective Minimum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October-November-December 2017

55. Probabilistic JAS 2m Minimum Temperature forecast map

56. Probabilistic OND 2m Minimum Temperature forecast map

57. Drought outlook

58. Drought
outlook
AMJJAS

59. CPT probabilistic AMJJAS
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May.
Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JJAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).

60. CPT probabilistic AMJJAS Drought forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 3
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index : 0.248
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 428
Stations : 10
Moderate
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 3
Experiment 2
Index : 0.216
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 4
Experiment 3
CCA modes:
Initial :
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :

61. Drought
outlook
DJFMAMjjason

62. CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).

63. CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON Drought forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 3
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index : 0.278
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Used : 394
Stations : 10
Fair
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 4

64. CariCOF Drought Outlook
By the end of September 2017
Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
Participating territories
Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

65. Shorter term Drought Outlook (April to September 2017) Areas under immediate drought concern?
Current Outlook
Current update (June 2017):
As we transition from the dry into the wet season, we continue to see no drought concern developing throughout the region, except:
A drought warning is issued for Haïti.
A drought watch is issued for Tobago.
Previous Outlook

66. Long-term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the wet season (November 30th, 2017)?
Current Outlook
This 12-month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations through May 2017, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12-month SPI is ≤-1.3 (very dry or worse – ref.: CDPMN).
A drought watch is in effect for Bahamas.
Previous Outlook

67. Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern?
Current drought situation (up to the end of May 2017): (more information here)
After an exceptionally wet month of April, a substantial improvement in short and mid term drought conditions were seen in Grand Cayman. Nevertheless, it remains in long term drought.
Some other areas in the Caribbean are also facing short term drought concerns, incl. N Bahamas, St. Barth’s, as well as potentially Belize and Trinidad & Tobago, which are also in long term drought.
Shorter term drought situation (by the end of September 2017):
We expect a shorter term drought situation to possibly manifest in Haïti and to possibly develop in Tobago.
Long term drought situation (by the end of November 2017):
Long term drought is possible in Bahamas.
Though the potential long term drought concerns are region-wide at its lowest since at least 2014, we advise all stakeholders to keep monitoring drought and look for our monthly updates.
One definite reason to keep monitoring the situation is the possibility of an El Niño by the end of the year. If an El Niño manifests, that may once again raise drought concerns when we will go into the next dry season by the end of 2017.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR &
CONSERVE WATER !!

68. Drought of immediate concern
Alert level
Meaning
Action level
NO CONCERN
No drought concern
monitor resources
update and ratify management plans
public awareness campaigns
upgrade infrastructure
DROUGHT WATCH
Drought possible
keep updated
protect resources and conserve water
implement management plans
response training
monitor and repair infrastructure
DROUGHT WARNING
Drought evolving
protect resources
conserve and recycle water
release public service announcements
last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades
report impacts
DROUGHT EMERGENCY
Drought of immediate concern
implement management and response plans
enforce water restrictions and recycling
enforce resource protection
repair infrastructure

69. Thresholds Goodness Index Skill Thresholds Negative Skill < 0
Very Limited
0 – 0.1
Limited
0.1 – 0.2
Moderate
0.2 – 0.25
Fair
Good
> 0.3
Drought
Alert Levels
Probabilities
No Concern
<
Drought Watch
– 50
Drought Warning
50 –
Drought Emergency ≥
ROC
Discrimination
Thresholds No
< 0.5
Poor
Moderate
0.6 – 0.7
Fair
Good
0.8 – 0.95
Very Good
> 0.95

70. Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – wet days and wet spells outlooks
July to September 2017
Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK1 , Wazita Scott1, Dr. Simon MASON2, Ángel MUÑOZ2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN2, Dale Destin3
1Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados
2International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA
3Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services

71. Wet day frequency shifts JAS 2017 Frequency of wet days
Precipitation outlook
Wet day frequency shifts
Forecast for: July to September 2017
JAS Frequency of wet days
USUALLY: Out of 92 days in Jul-Aug-Sep, there are about 35 to 50 wet days (50 to 65 in mountainous areas; ABC Islands: 5-15).
FORECAST: JAS is likely to be wetter than usual or usual in The Bahamas, Greater Antilles and W Guianas, whereas Barbados, Belize, Trinidad & Tobago and Windwards, may be drier than usual. We forecast slightly less wet days in the latter locations and coastal Guianas, but slightly more in most other places (medium to high confidence).
IMPLICATION:
Frequent rainfall disruptions of outdoor activities.
Surface wetness makes environmental conditions more conducive to mosquito breeding and moisture related pests.

72. Wet spells frequency shifts
Precipitation outlook
Wet spells frequency shifts
Forecast for: July to September 2017
JAS 2017 frequency of 7-day wet spells
USUALLY: Between 2 and 6 wet spells (ABC Islands: 1 to 4) occur from July to September, with 1 to 3 of them ending up very wet (ABC Islands: up to 2).
FORECAST: JAS is likely to be wetter than usual or usual in The Bahamas, Greater Antilles and W Guianas, whereas Barbados, Belize, Trinidad & Tobago and Windwards, may be drier than usual. We forecast slightly less wet days in the latter locations and coastal Guianas, but slightly more in most other places (medium to high confidence). By contrast, we forecast the usual number of wet and very wet spells (low confid.).
IMPLICATION:
Recharge of large water reservoirs associated with wet season.
Wet days outlook
JAS 2017 frequency of 7-day very wet spells

73. Extreme wet spells frequency shifts
Precipitation outlook
Extreme wet spells frequency shifts
Forecast for: July to September 2017
USUALLY: Up to 1 or 2 extreme wet spell occur between July to September (ABC Islands: up to 1).
FORECAST: JAS is likely to be wetter than usual or usual in The Bahamas, Greater Antilles and W Guianas, whereas Barbados, Belize, Trinidad & Tobago and Windwards, may be drier than usual. We forecast slightly less wet days in the latter locations and coastal Guianas, but slightly more in most other places (medium to high confidence). By contrast, we forecast the usual number of wet, very wet and extremely wet spells (low confid.).
IMPLICATION: Flash flood potential is a concern throughout the region.
JAS 2017 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3-day wet spells
Wet days outlook
Wet spells outlook
Very wet spells outlook

74. July to September 2017 No. of wet days
No. of 7-day wet spells (20% wettest)
No. of 7-day very wet spells (10% wettest)
No. of 3-day extremely wet spells (1% wettest)
Climatology
Forecast
Antigua (VC Bird)
29-42
31-46
0.9-3
1-3.6
0-1
0-1.3
Aruba (Beatrix)
6-17
3-15
1-4.6
0-0.4
Barbados (CIMH)
37-49
34-49
3.6-7
Barbados (GAIA)
39-49
37-50
0-1.5
Belize (C. Farm)
36-49
30-47
2.9-6
0-1.1
Cayman
29-50
1.3-4
Cuba (Punta Maisi)
10-18
12-23
Dom. Republic (Las Americas)
23-38
Dominica (Canefield)
52-65
50-66
0-2.5
0-2.3
Dominica (Douglas Charles)
56-69
57-74
3-6.9
0.9-4
Grenada (MBIA)
39-48
35-51
0-2
0-1.6
Guyana_73
17-26
14-25
0-0.2
0-0
Guyana (Albion)
26-42
21-39
0-0.8
Guyana (Blairmont)
33-46
29-44
0-0.9
Guyana (Enmore)
28-42
22-42
0.6-3
Guyana (Georgetown)
0-0.3
Guyana (New Amsterdam)
34-51
30-55
0-1.4
Guyana (Skeldon)
31-44
29-43
2-5.3
Guyana (Timehri)
31-38
28-38
Jamaica (Worthy Park)
45-58
41-57
Martinique (FDF Desaix)
38-52
36-51
2.1-5
0-0.5
Puerto Rico (San Juan)
29-46
St. Lucia (Hewanorra)
52-64
49-63
St. Maarten (TNCM)
36-50
37-58
3-5.6
1-3.7
St. Vincent (ET Joshua)
44-59
40-57
Suriname (Zanderij)
32-49
32-54
Tobago (ANR Robinson)
56-65
48-62
Trinidad (Piarco)
34-53
0.6-2
0-1.2
brown is a decrease in frequency, dark blue an increase, grey none are expected

75. appendix

76. Caribbean RCC Temperature Monitor Maps

77. Caribbean RCC Rainfall and SPI Monitor Maps

78. US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin

79. NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting

80. Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs
Caribbean & tropical Atlantic
El Niño region

81. Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs
Caribbean & tropical Atlantic
El Niño region

82. Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs

83. US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update

84. Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast

86. IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

87. EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

88. ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast

89. UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast

90. NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast
AMERICA

91. APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

92. Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast
Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

93. Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast

94. Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast
JAS 2017 (0.5 month lead)
OND 2017 (3.5 month lead)

95. IRI – multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

96. EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

97. ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T2m forecast

98. UK Met Office – probabilistic T2m forecast

99. APCC – multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

100. Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T2m forecast
Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T2m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

101. Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T2m forecast

102. Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic T2m forecast
JAS 2017 (0.5 month lead)
OND 2017 (3.5 month lead)

103. Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
rcc.cimh.edu.bb
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
TEL: (246) /3 | FAX: (246)