1. Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) University of Oklahoma
CAPS is one of the first 11 NSF Science and Technology (S&T) Centers
CAPS is a pioneer and world leader in storm-scale NWP and radar data assimilation
CAPS is one of the four core organizations developing the new community WRF models.
CAPS was founded by Prof. Douglas Lilly, a member of US National Academy of Science
Prof. Kelvin Droegemeier, the second director of CAPS is a current member of U.S. President-appointed National Science Board, the governing body of NSF.
Prof. Ming Xue, the current director of CAPS, is a recognized world leader in the development and application of mesoscale and convective-scale modeling and data assimilation systems.

2. Qualifications of Dr. Ming Xue, one of the FPIs.
Prof. Xue is the main developer of the ARPS, one of the 3 major mesoscale modeling systems in the U.S., and is used worldwise.
The ARPS is in use at all four collaborating institutions right now.
Dr. Xue serves on 4 WRF Working Groups, and the WRF Research Application Board, and WRF Development Testbed Center (DTC) Advisory Board, and in the past the WRF Science Board.
Dr. Xue has nearly 70 publications in leading SCI journals.
Dr. Xue is the PI of the Analysis and Prediction Thrust of the current NSF Engineering Research Center (ERC) CASA, in which he is in charge of $1.5 million annual research budget.
Dr. Xue is in charge of much research grants with annual budget of over $2 million.
The University of Oklahoma has the best meteorology degree program in mesoscale meteorology in the United States.

3. Real Forecast Examples: May 8th, 2003 OKC tornado
UTC
30 km long path F4
Main tornado is the third one
UTC
Struck southern OKC area (path:30 km long)
F2 damage in Moore, F3 and F4 in southeastern OKC
$370 million damages, 100 injuries, no deaths
Tornado #1
2200 UTC
UTC

4. ARPS 1-km-grid forecast using 10 min assimilation cycles over 1 hour
Reflectivity at 1.45º elevation
30-min forecast
Observed low-level reflectivity and the corresponding model prediction using 1 km resolution ARPS model initialized with real radar data.
Forecasts are 30 min and 40 min after initial time. Next slides shows an animation of the same thing.
Hook echoes at the southwestern end of the storm with less than 10 km displacement errors
Move at the similar direction and speed.
40-min forecast

5. May 8, 2003 OKC Tornado ARPS model prediction on 50-m Grid
Forecast Radar observation
Movie
Forecast Low-level Reflectivity Observed Low-level Reflectivity
(Click on the figure for movie – Place the movie in the same directory as the ppt file)

6. Research Plan of CAPS
Continue enhancing its storm-scale model, the ARPS and its advanced data assimilation systems,
Adapt the system to the Korean and East Asian environment.
Improve model microphysics (e.g., multi-moment schemes)
Evaluate and refine models for land surface and boundary layer processes for the eastern Asian and oceanic environments
Develop advanced data assimilation using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Doppler radar data and apply them to the East Asian environment
Study predictability and error growth in multi-scale problems
Apply the modeling and data assimilation systems to the analysis and prediction of orographical precipitation, heavy rainfall events and typhoon cases.

7. Execution of plan by CAPS
Leverage on existing grants/projects for model and data assimilation system development
Seek additional support for model adaptation and testing for East Asian environments
Host visitors from collaborating institutions
Leverage on CAPS’s access to university and national supercomputing resources, including NSF peta-scale systems when they come on line.

8. Movie of Cloud Water Field 25 m, 7.5x7.5km domain, 30 minutes
Movie of Cloud Water Field. dx=25m x7.5km domain, 30 min.
Movie of Cloud Water Field 25 m, 7.5x7.5km domain, 30 minutes
(Click on the figure for movie – Place the movie in the same directory as the ppt file)
Click for Movie