1. NextGen and Its Impact on Performance
Worldwide Symposium on Performance
of the Air Navigation System
ICAO
Montreal, Quebec, Canada
March 26-30, 2007
Victoria Cox
US Federal Aviation Administration
Air Traffic Operations,
Vice President of Operations Planning

2. It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods
Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.5% of U.S. GDP
If expanded to include related industries,
it’s 9% of U.S. GDP
Contributes 10 million jobs to our economy

3. 2025 NextGen Concept Key Capabilities Net-Enabled Information Access
For full version, see:
Key Capabilities
Net-Enabled Information Access
Performance-Based Services
Weather-Assimilated Decision Making
Layered, Adaptive Security
Broad-Area Precision Navigation
Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations
“Equivalent Visual” Operations
“Super Density” Operations

4. Cost of Not Moving to NextGen
Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF Growth)
OEP H&S Capacity Estimate
No Change Capacity Demand
175,000
155,000
135,000
$100 Billion
Annual Economic Loss
Flights Per Day
Uncons
Comm
115,000
$40 Billion
Annual Economic Loss
95,000
OEP H&S
75,000
No Change
55,000
2004
2014
2024
2034
Demand by Year

5. Future Demand on the NAS
Flights
1.4-3X
Boeing Forecast 3X
2.4X
~3X
Not to scale
Biz shift
2% shift to micro jets
TAF Growth Ratios, Higher Rate
TAF yields
passenger growth of
X in 2025
~2X
Continue existing Biz shift
Smaller aircraft, more airports
Enplanement Demand
TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate
Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Growth Projection
Significant Alternate Shift
Increase passengers per flight
A380, reverse RJ trend
2014
2025
20?? 1X
2004

6. 2025 NextGen Capabilities: Capacity Impacts
Airspace Capacity
Airport Capacity
NextGen Capabilities
Aircraft Trajectory-Based Ops
Performance-Based Services
2X – 4X Capacity Increase
Distributed Airport Operations*
And more…
Weather Information in Decision Loops
“Equivalent Visual” Operations
Maximize use of Available Airspace
Nearly match Good Wx Capacity
“Super Density” Airport Operations
1.2X – 1.4X Capacity Increase
Net-Enabled Information Access
Broad Area Precision Navigation
Current
Current
Current
Current
*For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP airports
Bad Wx
Good Wx
Good Wx
Bad Wx

7. NextGen Performance: Dual Focus
Air Traffic Management
Improved Performance-based services
Area Navigation (RNAV)
Required Navigation Performance (RNP)
Continuous Descent Approach (CDA)
Improved Information Availability (SWIM)
Improved weather prediction availability and coordinated weather picture

8. NextGen Performance: Dual Focus
Aircraft and Operator Performance
Improved aircraft performance
Navigation and aircraft flight performance
Improved noise and emissions performance
Provide better decision quality data to pilots and air traffic controllers to enable higher-density operations with high level of safety

9. Monitoring Performance against NextGen Targets
National Plan
Sets NextGen Objectives
Enterprise Architecture:
Performance Reference Model
JPDO Develops NextGen
Performance Assessment
of Concepts – Sets Targets
Agency
Develops Near-Term
Performance Goals
Flight Plan
OEP
Enterprise Architecture
Adjust Plan
Agency
Executes Investments
Monitors Performance
JPDO Manages
Outcomes against Plan
Portfolio Management

10. Demonstrated Metrics Experience
ATO Dashboard

11. Operational Evolution Partnership Metrics
Measuring today ensures a successful tomorrow
NAS Today

12. Enabling Infrastructure to Support NextGen Capabilities
ERAM
STARS/CARTS
ADS-B
TMA
TFM-M
SWIM
DATA Comm
Precision Navigation
Network Enabled Weather
Current Programs
Key Near-Term Investments
ERAM Enhancements
Automated Problem Resolution
Concept Demonstrations Trajectory Based Ops/High Density
Infrastructure – Trajectory Based Ops
Time Based Metering
TFM-M Enhancements
Time-Based Metering
RNP/RNAV Expansion
Precise Navigation
Data Communications
Flight Intent Downlink
ADS-B
Aircraft Separation
SWIM/Net-Enabled Weather
Net-Centric Information Sharing
OEP Solution Sets
Initiate Trajectory Based Operations
Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports
Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment
Improve Collaborative ATM
Reduce Weather Impact
Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance
Transform Facilities