1. Introduction to Performance Measures
GES 400H
UMBC Fall 2008
Megan Wiley Rivera

2. The CAN Process Develop performance measures Reach consensus on
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The CAN Process
Develop performance measures
Reach consensus on
the scientific data to be used in evaluating alternatives
scientific methods and assumptions to be used
the nature of alternatives to consider and how to structure the evaluations
Create and evaluate alternatives in a collaborative setting with other stakeholders

3. What Is A Performance Measure?
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What Is A Performance Measure?
A display
Compares alternatives for one or more management objective
Needs only to distinguish "better" and "worse"
Water management is multi-objective
Multiple performance measures are required

4. Multiple PMs are needed
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Multiple PMs are needed
Water resources problems are multi-objective
Some possible areas
Water supply reliability
Water quality
Recreation
Power generation
Navigation
Environmental Measures

5. Why are PMs so important
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Why are PMs so important
Without PMs parties tend to focus on abstract portions of rules, e.g. the minimum flow requirement, the level of the summer pool rule curve
With PMs parties can focus on overall outcomes
Creating PMs forces parties to think about what they really care about and how to measure it

6. Performance Measure Notes
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Performance Measure Notes
HydroLogics rarely tries to commensurate performance measures
Single scores are not informative IMHO
If it is not possible to evaluate a particular performance measure directly, we use surrogates

7. Process for Developing Performance Measures
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Process for Developing Performance Measures

8. Scientific Rationale No habitat if lake stage exceeds 15 feet
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Scientific Rationale
No habitat if lake stage exceeds 15 feet
No forage if lake stage reverses by more than 6 inches

9. Performance Measure First Attempt
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Performance Measure First Attempt

10. Performance Measure Revised
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Performance Measure Revised

11. Performance Measures - Surrogates
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Performance Measures - Surrogates

12. Some Examples from the Apalachicola Chattahoochee Flint
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Some Examples from the Apalachicola Chattahoochee Flint

13. Currently no CAN process
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Currently no CAN process
It’s been attempted (SVP), but the tri-state water wars go on (litigation)
A lot of activity recently because of an ongoing drought in the region
The US Fish and Wildlife Service put out a set of “performance measures” to assess whether or not the Army Corps’ proposed Interim Operation Plan violated the Endangered Species Act (Sept 2006 Biological Opinion, posted in course documents)

14. 19:20
Lowest flow each year

15. Mussels Are Affected at Low Flows
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Mussels Are Affected at Low Flows
How much and at what flows is up for debate
Generally thought that they get too hot (lethal) at flows < 5000 cfs
They are strained at somewhat higher flows: 6000, 6500, 7000—depends who you ask
Time is an issue
they can handle x number of days, and after y number of days, it may not matter any more (ones who will die have died)
We don’t know what x or y equal

16. Number of consecutive low-flow days in the worst year
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Number of consecutive low-flow days in the worst year

17. Number of Low-Flow Days in Median Year

18. Sturgeon Habitat Available during Spawning Season
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Sturgeon Habitat Available during Spawning Season

19. Note: Higher Flows Do Not Necessarily Mean More Habitat
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Note: Higher Flows Do Not Necessarily Mean More Habitat
Sweet spot at more important site

20. Note: Higher Flows Do Not Necessarily Mean More Habitat
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Note: Higher Flows Do Not Necessarily Mean More Habitat
Another example of counter-intuitive results—trying to get as much water as possible does not necessarily translate into better spawning habitat
Opportunity to write rules that target these flows during spawning season
Sweet spot at more important site

21. Other examples from hypothetical basin
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Other examples from hypothetical basin
Most of these have been biological performance measures
An aside, there is a “sister process” to CAN in which biological performance measures are created by a group of stakeholders (Savannah Process)
In at least one case, once they started modeling, found that biological PMs never scored well; not enough water in system, too coarse to recognize small improvements
In some recent processes, model used during development (recall that I suggested models should not even be chosen until you know what you’re evaluating)
We will be using two sets of data as we develop our performance measures to make sure they are reasonable: historical and “current operations” model results
What about other stakeholders?

22. Number of Days of Recreation Impact during the period of record
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Number of Days of Recreation Impact during the period of record

23. Frequency of Impact Days
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Frequency of Impact Days

24. Number of Years with Extended Recreation Impact
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Number of Years with Extended Recreation Impact

25. Number of Days of Recreation Impact during the period of record
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Number of Days of Recreation Impact during the period of record

26. 51:50
Water Supply

27. Water Supply Ideas
Frequency of years that drought conservation measures are taken (economic and political ramifications)
Compare to some measure of water supply reliability
< 5% probability of storage falling below some threshold
System never “empties” (include margin of safety) based on historic hydrology
NYC group will need to talk with operators about their measures of reliability
NYC gets about 50% of water from this source, so there is also room to play with how they utilize other sources