1. Michael Rogan ISER- Rhodes University 23 March, 2017
Study choices and job matching among graduates from two Eastern Cape universities
Michael Rogan
ISER- Rhodes University
23 March, 2017

2. Policy: National Development Plan:
Increase of gross enrolments  from 950,000 in 2010 to 1,6 million in 2030, a 70% increase
University science and mathematics entrants to increase three-fold by 2030
Increase graduation rates to 25% (of total enrolment)
Envisages an increase in higher education enrolments from 17.9% in 2012 to 25% by 2030

3. Objectives: 1) Graduate unemployment: Linked with study choices?
Or linked with ‘non-HE’ factors such as social networks, schooling disadvantages
3) Job matching:
Which graduates find the ‘right jobs’?
Are study choices associated with working in a ‘graduate job’?

4. The Eastern Cape Study:
Tracer study of the 2010 and 2011 cohorts from the University of Fort Hare (HDI)and Rhodes University (HAI) who graduated with a Bachelor’s degree
Stratified (by subjects and institution) probability sample of 1,211 graduates representing the total population of 4,927 graduates
Response rates of 39% and 47% per cent, respectively
Fieldwork = online survey and telephonic interviews

5. Graduate Unemployment

6. Figure 1: Broad unemployment rates (as of March 1st), by field of study
Notes: The data are weighted.

7. Figure 2: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (main effects)

8. Figure 3: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (interaction terms)

9. University of Fort Hare
Table 1: Means of finding employment (among employees)
Rhodes University
SET
Business/ Commerce
Education
Humanities
Total
Employment agency
13.16
(4.06)
12.73
(3.58)
0.00
(0.00)
7.25
(1.87)
9.84
(1.61)
Relatives
6.04
(2.66)
5.15
(2.12)
7.75
(1.92)
6.59
(1.27)
Linked to bursary
1.55
(1.54)
4.43
(2.27)
2.10
(1.04)
2.63
(0.89)
Social media
4.96
(2.46)
15.08
(3.97)
21.05
(18.05)
11.82
(2.32)
11.56
(1.74)
Personal contacts
21.02
(4.56)
27.07
27.63
(18.35)
34.12
(3.41)
29.56
(2.38)
Newspaper
8.76
(3.91)
9.78
(3.44)
60.53
(18.99)
11.08
(2.24)
10.86
(1.71)
Campus recruitment
3.77
(2.17)
8.69
(2.90)
6.58
(6.66)
5.23
5.95
(1.24)
University of Fort Hare
4.50
(1.57)
1.62
(0.80)
1.92
(0.56)
Department of Labour
10.03
(3.18)
6.16
(1.89)
11.90
(5.62)
8.82
(1.80)
8.68
(1.28)
1.21
(1.20)
3.08
(1.36)
1.82
(1.81)
3.42
(1.22)
2.79
(0.73)
12.11
4.92
(1.70)
21.56
(6.59)
15.48
12.91
(1.52)
5.84
(2.54)
7.84
(2.09)
4.36
(1.29)
4.99
(0.91)
8.39
(2.86)
13.84
(3.82)
11.78
(2.15)
11.32
(1.37)
36.62
(5.04)
40.69
(3.87)
20.55
(6.08)
37.50
(3.13)
36.23
(2.10)
(2.99)
4.16
(1.55)
3.30
(3.23)
4.75
(1.34)
5.08
(0.96)

10. Job Matching

11. Figure 4: Job matching status among employed graduates, by institution (%)
Note: The data are weighted.

12. Table 2: The correlates of being overqualified (estimation by probit)
Rhodes
Fort Hare
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Female
0.0899
(0.174)
0.0408
(0.182)
(0.189)
(0.145)
0.0536
(0.155)
0.0347
(0.160)
Black
-0.266
(0.180)
-0.317*
(0.190)
-0.260
(0.192)
---
Schooling
Low quintile
0.359*
(0.208)
0.335
(0.216)
0.321
(0.217)
0.362**
(0.153)
0.434***
0.425**
(0.170)
Higher grade math or science
-0.195
(0.178)
-0.207
(0.188)
-0.227
(0.197)
-0.193
(0.275)
-0.226
(0.296)
-0.125
(0.314)
Higher education
SET degree
-0.167
(0.232)
-0.242
(0.246)
0.0111
(0.228)
Commerce degree
(0.230)
-0.160
0.367**
(0.169)
0.231
(0.181)
Distinction
-0.120
(0.293)
-0.303
(0.312)
0.238
(0.280)
0.0866
(0.305)
Employment characteristics
Public sector
-0.256
(0.266)
-0.116
(0.177)
Part-time
0.551*
(0.282)
Permanent
-0.466**
(0.195)
-0.399**
(0.168)
_cons
-1.239***
(0.212)
-1.133***
(0.227)
-0.718***
(0.260)
-1.375***
(0.152)
-1.505***
(0.187)
-1.166***
(0.250)
(unweighted) N
376
368
354
504
437
418
Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. The data are weighted. Marginal effects reported.

13. Conclusions:
Study choice has limited impact on employment or job matching
Disadvantages in schooling quality carrying over into the labour market (even for successful graduates)
Several possible points of efficiencies/blockages
Signalling vs. matching/social networking?