1. Adapting or Reacting ? Producers will react to changing conditions
Producers will adapt if tools are available
The goal should be to create the needed tools
We are a product of our environment
The very nature of agriculture is how we respond to our environment
The following slides deal with how quickly producers respond

2. Reacting Quickly, the Grandin Story
A CASE OF THE SWIFT REACTION BY PRODUCERS
ACRE

3. FUSARIUM 1992, ENTER GRANDIN
PRODUCERS REACTED
FROM ZERO TO 200,000 ACRES –ONE YEAR
1055 PRODUCERS
SHARE OF WHEAT CLASS IN RED RIVER, 70%
NO COMMERCIAL SEED CHANNELS EXISTED
NOT A REGISTERED VARIETY
DIDN’T OFFICIALLY EXIST
PRODUCERS WOULDN’T BE DENIED
AND YET CLOSE TO 20 YEARS LATER WE STILL HAVE NOT ELIMINATED THIS DISEASE THREAT
LESSONS FROM OTHER INDUSTRIES OF NOT MEETING THE CHALLENGES
GENERAL MOTORS , NORTEL COMES TO MIND
SHOULD WE BE ANY DIFFERENT?

4. MARKET SIGNALS AND RISK ADVERSION
NET RETURNS VS. RISK OF NOT MEETING TOP GRADE
MOVEMENT TO OTHER CROPS
ACRE

5. FEED GRADE CROPS – LOWER RISK, HIGHER NET RETURNS
WEATHER AND DISEASE OF HIGH GRADE CROPS COMPETE IN THIS MARKET
PRODUCERS SWITCH TO LESS RISKY CROPS AND MORE YIELD POTENTIAL
ACRE

6. MARKET SIGNALS, HYBRID BREEDING, LOWER RISK
CANOLA WENT FROM ½ MILLION TO OVER 3 MILLION ACRES
EARLY YEARS A HIGH RISK CROP
INTRODUCTION OF HYBRIDS LOWERED RISK DRAMATICALLY
ABLE TO HANDLE A WIDE RANGE OF ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES
ACRE

7. MODERN BREEDING, HYBRIDS, DRAMATIC LOWER RISK
ONCE A HIGH RISK CROP
NOW A LOW RISK VERY FORGIVING CROP
YIELD CURVE STILL INCREASING

8. PRODUCERS ON MASS ADOPTING NEW CROP SHIFT IN GROWING AREAS
ACRE

9. PRODUCERS ADAPTING QUICKLY, PEAS
PEAS WERE TRADITIONAL TO RED RIVER VALLEY AREA
DISEASE AND CLIMATE PRESSURES WERE LOWERING RETURNS
GRIP PROGRAM UNDERWROTE SOME RISK AND PEA ACRAGE EXPLODED
MARKET QUICKLY EXPANDED
PRICES NEVER COLLASPED
GRIP NEVER PAID OUT ON A PRICE TRIGGER
A NEW CROP WAS INTRODUCED INTO ROTATIONS
A DISEASE BREAK CROP INCREASED NEXT ROTATION YIELDS
SUDDEN SHIFT IN GROWING AREA LEFT TRADERS QUESTIONING RELOCATION
THEN ALONG COME THE NEXT ADAPTATION

10. INCREASING HEAT UNITS, BETTER BREEDING, MANAGEMENT SKILLS
PRODUCERS IN FORMER PEA AND LENTIL GROWING AREAS
HIGH DEGREE OF MANAGEMENT SKILLS AND EQUIPMENT DEDICATION

11. SOYBEAN MIGRATION NORTH OF 49TH, ADAPTING QUICKLY
THIS WILL REQUIRE MORE EQUIPMENT MODIFICATION
AS NEWER BREEDING COMES ON LINE THE AREA WILL EXPAND
ACRE

12. PRIMARY PROCESSORS, LOWER VALUE CROP, LOWER RISK, OBTAINABLE MARKET REQUIREMENTS
NOT ALL HIGH VALUE CROPS BENEFIT FROM CHANGE

13. CROP RESIDUE BURNING
PROBLEM AREA AROUND WINNIPEG
EXTENSION NOT WORKING?
BURNING BAN?
PRODUCERS NOT ADAPTING?
PRODUCERS NOT REACTING?
WINNIPEG

14. THE REST OF THE STORY
FULL MANITOBA MAP
WINNIPEG

15. SINGLE DAY IN NOVEMEBER 2009

16. 2006 FALL MB AB SK
LOOKING BROADER, FALL 2006 ND

17. BURNING IN THE HEART OF ZERO TILL –FALL 2008AB SK MB
POINTER TO SHOW WHERE WORLD CLASS ZERO TILL MANUFACTURES ARE LOCATED SD

18. FALL 2009 WHY ? * TREND?? * COOL SPRINGS?? * TECHNOLOGY NOT EVOLVING??AB SK MB
POINTER TO SHOW NEXT TO ME THEN ON THE HORIZON ND

19. CRITICAL REQUIREMENT TOOLS NEEDED TO ADAPTING
RAPID, FOCUSED BREEDING IN CEREALS AND FORAGES TO HANDLE INCREASING STRESSES OF COOLER SPRINGS, HOTTER SUMMERS, PERCIPATION SWINGS (ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES)
LESS RELIANCE ON DISEASE CONTROL THROUGH TRADITIONAL FUNGICIDE TREATMENTS ( PUBLIC PRESSURES )
EFFICIENT UPTAKE OF NUTRIENTS AND WATER USE ( INPUT PRESSURES)
COMPLEXITIES OF CROP ROTATIONS TO REDUCE RISK ( PRODUCTION PRESSURES)
NEWER EQUIPMENT TECHNOLOGY FROM SEEDING TO HARVEST (TECHNOLOGY PRESSURES)
IF THIS IS NOT DONE THEN I WILL REVERT TO CROPS THAT PROVIDE THIS BREEDING
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO REACT AND NOT TRULY ADAPT
THANK YOU MASC (CROP INSURANCE) MAFRI FOR DATA