1. Political Ideology and Public Opinion

2. Political Socialization
The process by which each person acquires political opinions
Factors that determine our opinions
Family
Religion
Education
Mass Media
Occupation
Gender
Age
3 minutes – How does this factor determine our political opinions? On sticky note paper.

3. Political Typology Pew Research Center
Nonpartisan fact tank
Public opinion polling
Demographic research
Media content analysis
Empirical social science research
Does not take policy positions
Political Typology Quiz – Going beyond the Blue and Red.
Link in Google Classroom
Put link in Google Classroom

4. Quiz Results The types Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left
Next Generation Left
Hard-Pressed Skeptics
Young Outsiders
Business Conservatives
Steadfast Conservatives
Bystanders

5. Public Opinion Public opinion
The distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues
Many groups and lots of opinions
Can be very hard to determine

6. Measuring Public Opinion
Polls: 2 Types
1. Straw Polls
Ask a question to a large group and waits for responses
Radio hosts, websites
Not scientific
You cannot draw conclusions based on these results

7. Measuring Public Opinion
2. Scientific Polls
Developed by Gallup Organization
Ask a sample of the voters how they would vote
Must represent the voters
Proportions from each race, class, and region
1000 – 1500 represent the “universe”
Random sampling
Sampling error – the level of confidence in the poll
Always has a margin for error (±3%)

8. Measuring Public Opinion
Poll 1:
Candidate A - 53%
Could be up to 58% or as low as 48%
Candidate B – 47%
Could be up to 52% or as low as 42%
Margin of Error(±5%)
This poll shows a statistical tie!

9. Measuring Public Opinion
Poll 2:
Candidate A - 53%
Could be up to 55% or as low as 51%
Candidate B – 47%
Could be up to 49% or as low as 45%
Margin of Error (±2%)
This poll shows a predictable result!

10. Polling Organizations
Gallup
Rasmussen Reports
Pew Research
Marist
Reuters
Public Policy Polling
Polling is broken article:

11. Evaluating Polls When results are in… Polls are not elections!
Do polls report opinions or shape opinions?
Or both?
“Bandwagon effect”
Polls are not elections!
Exit Polls