1. Unit 2 Part 2: Polling and Public Opinion
APGoPo – Ms. Hamer

2. Discussion of New Yorker Article Politics and the New Machine

3. Discuss the Following in Your Groups
What is quota sampling? Where did this lead to problems with Gallup’s polls?
What modern problems are occurring with the traditional methods of polling?
What “patches” are being used to try to solve this? Why does the New Yorker article argue that these are not a long term solution?

4. Polling Types

5. Straw Polls Informal Originally conducted in 1824 as an exit poll
Later seen in newspapers – readers could submit how they were going to vote
Currently seen in Facebook or in online “news” sources

6. The Public Opinion Poll
Attempt is to be accurate – though this is difficult
Famous blunders such as “Dewey defeats Truman”
Requires getting a good representative sample of the population
Need enough people to make the poll accurate, but polling agencies have to keep costs down
Polls are snapshots of public opinion, so looking at the date the poll was conducted is important in understanding its importance

7. Push Polls
Some groups use polls as a way to shift public opinion so they use leading questions to push people into answering a certain way. Then the results of this poll are used to control media coverage
Other polls seem to be an attempt to determine public opinion, but are just campaign tactics pretending to be a poll. These push polls will attempt to change someone’s opinion based on how they answer poll questions

8. Exit Polls
What are exit polls? Are they helpful? Harmful? Your book has a section on whether or not they should be banned – what do you think?

9. The Effects of Public Opinion

10. Polls in Campaigns Horserace Coverage
Focusing on the rapid results of constant polling as reporting instead of the issues
This article cites interesting data on the conversion to Horserace Coverage in America:
In the 2016 election, the Republican primary debates would only allow the candidates who were above a certain spot in the polls to participate in the main debate

11. Is the theory of delegate representation how elected officials use polls? Or do they use polls as a resource to win elections?
Discussion Question
Book states that presidents try to move the public to their side more than move to the public’s side – especially conservative presidents (Bush II and Reagan). Presidents elected with a mandate can use that burst of support to try to accomplish something during the honeymoon period though partisanship in Congress is slowing that down.
Reps are elected every two years and decisions unpopular to their local district can hurt campaign contributions but don’t necessarily affect success. Presidential popularity and perks of incumbency (name recognition) are more determining of success
Senators do not do as well based on incumbency as Reps but they have a longer term to buffer public backlash against unpopular decision. But Senators do not necessarily alter to fit the population, as the population shifts, new senators are elected and they reflect that shift
Congress focuses more on specific interest groups and their opinions (like AARP)