1. Emina Herovic, Ph.D. Candidate University of Kentucky
Preliminary Analysis: Challenges Experienced by Earthquake Scientists Communicating Earthquake Risk to Non-Experts
Emina Herovic, Ph.D. Candidate
University of Kentucky

2. Introduction Complexity of RISK
Risk perception varies widely
Experts and Non-experts
Earthquake Scientists (EQS) Face Greatest Barriers
Especially Important Considering Aftermath of L’Aquila

3. Rationale Risk Perception Studies Have Been Inconclusive
Mainly Quantitative Approaches
Calling for Application of the Principles of Effective Communication to EQ Science (Jordan et al., 2011).

4. Theoretical Framework: CERC
The Pre-Crisis Stage
Monitoring & Recognition
General Public Understanding
Public Preparation
Changes in Behavior
Warning Messages
Alliances and Cooperation
Consensual Recommendations
Message Development & Testing

5. Aims of the Study
Exploration of Communicating Risk for EQS + Practicality of this Info for CERC
Explore Communication Complexities of EQS
Earliest Stage of CERC
Help to Understand & Expand CERC based on this particular context
Make CERC’s Pre-Crisis Stage Potentially Useful for EQS

6. Research Questions R1: Alignment with Pre-Crisis Stage of CERC?
R2: General Challenges during Pre-Crisis Stage?
R3: Communication Challenges with Non-Experts?
R4: Challenges with Communicating Probability?

7. Method In-Depth Interviews with EQS (N = 21) Thematic Coding
Crystallization – Forming Holistic Picture
Extant & Relevant Work
Published Work by Participants

8. Preliminary Findings 3 of 7 Preliminary Themes Presented Today:
1) Peril of Communicating EQ Science
2) EQ Hazard & EQ Risk Communication Responsibilities
3) EQ Risk Communication and “Not Writing on Blank Slates”

9. The Peril of Communicating EQ Science
Communicating Uncertainty -Nature of the Risk -Uncertainty of Models

10. The Peril of Communicating EQ Science
Communicating Uncertainty
“I would like to emphasize again that this issue is hotly debated in our community because people realize our credibility is at stake. If we communicate something that is misunderstood our credibility could drop. This is something people don’t want.” –participant one

11. EQ Hazard vs. EQ Risk Communication Responsibilities
“Risk is a much more subjective issue. Taking risk actions means making risk decisions and those decisions must be balanced among many issues like political considerations and other difficult things to quantify. And, one does not want to make those decisions.” – participant 12
“…I think we need to be quite formal in separating roles. A scientist’s role is not the same as the government’s role.” –participant 16
“The managers are there to make decisions. Scientists should be separated from taking actions. As far as talking to the public, some scientists should never talk to public. Decisions of risk should not be made by scientists.” –participant 18

12. EQ Risk Communication and “Not Writing on Blank Slates”
“I know you're not just writing on blank slates. The people you’re trying to educate already have opinions and so you can’t just tell somebody something and they just believe you. You have to figure out what it is they believe and then walk them from where they are to where you want them to be. That’s a whole other level besides trying to explain things to people and them having the numeracy or background to understand. But, if they already have own belief, then I think none of us really have training on how to effectively communicate.” –participant 9

13. EQ Risk Communication and “Not Writing on Blank Slates”
Cross-cultural Differences in Risk Perception
“…people in the US are used to hearing messages of probability. For instance the weather is given as a message of probability. In other places it is not.” –participant 1
Regional Differences in Risk Perception
“It depends upon where you are in the country. I think in California, in particular those who have experienced earthquake in their memory, perhaps have a little better understanding.” –participant 14
Risk Perception and Vulnerable Audiences
“reaching populations that are at a disadvantage” –participant 9

14. In Conclusion… Just Kidding! 
Or am I? Let’s look at some implications for CERC…

15. Preliminary Conclusions/Implications
Stage models, like CERC, must begin taking uncertainty into consideration.
Are we communicating uncertainty in ways that are understood?
Public education must aid in this endeavor
Warning messages and risk-hazard communication separation
Cultural differences to be taken into consideration with Risk Literacy.
Including: cross cultural, regional, and vulnerable audiences (socio-economic + physically unattainable).
Communicating with Confidence when there is SO much uncertainty
Stage models, like CERC, must begin taking uncertainty into consideration.
Are we communicating uncertainty in ways that are understood?
Public education must aid in this endeavor
Ensuring separation of communication – but making sure the people communicating the info are getting it right!
Warning messages and risk-hazard communication separation
Cultural differences to be taken into consideration with Risk Literacy.
Those differences include cross cultural, regional, and vulnerable audiences (socio-economic + physically unattainable).

16. Questions?
Thank you! 
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