1. Voting, Participation, and Public Opinion

2. Evolution of Voting
1971: 26th Amendment gives suffrage to all eighteen-year-olds. Turnout low and has fallen since.
1842: All House Members must be elected by districts
1920: 19th Amendment gives right to vote to women. Increased participation but no impact on results.
1870: 15th Amendment gives right to vote to African Americans
1965: Voting Rights Act guarantees the right to vote for African Americans

3. Who Can Vote? Age: 18 years or older Citizenship Requirement
Criminal Record: Most states bar felons from voting
Registration Requirement
Not automatic
Residency Requirements
Registration must occur in advance of election

4. Participation
Political Participation The tendency is to look at participation as just voting in elections. However it refers to every way we take part in politics and government.
Educating yourself on issues
Having a reasoned debate over issues
Joining a political party
Voting
Giving a candidate a donation for their campaign

5. Two Ways to Look at Voting
Voting Age Population
Voting Eligible Participation
Measuring the vote of all people who have reached the age of 18.
Many people in this group are not eligible to vote (non-citizens, convicted felons)
In 2012: 53.6% voter turnout based on VAP (Down 3.2% from 2008)
Measuring the vote of all people who are legally allowed to vote.
In 2012: 58.2% voter turnout based on VEP (Down 3.5% from 2008)

6. Why people didn’t vote

7. Why is U.S. Voter Turnout Low?
Day of Voting
- In the U.S. elections are held on Tuesdays. Other countries have weekend elections or voting holidays.
Registration Process
- In the U.S. voters have to send in their registration by mail. Other nations have an automatic process.
Decrease in Trust in Government
- Since 1970, our trust in government officials has decreased.
Weakening of Political Parties
- Less ability to mobilize voters
Ballot Fatigue
- Due to federalism we have a lot of elections, so people tend to sit some of them out.

8. Voting Patterns
When discussing voting patterns there are two fundamental questions to ask…
Who is more likely to vote?
Voter Turnout
Who is somebody more likely to vote for?
Voting Behavior

9. Voter Turnout

10. “Likely” Voters Older Voters High Income More Educated
When income is taken into account African Americans and Whites vote at the same rate, which is a higher one than Latinos (although that doubled from 1996 to 2008)
People who attend religious services

11. Voting Behavior
Party Identification: People are more likely to vote for their party
Social Class: Not as powerful, but higher income tends to vote Republican, unskilled labor tends to vote Democratic
Race/Ethnicity: Blacks are most likely to vote Democratic, Hispanic are more likely to vote Democratic but not as reliable, White are slightly more likely to vote Republican, Asians are most likely to vote Republican
Neighborhood: Urban residents are more likely to be Democrats. Rural resident are more likely to be Republicans.
Education: The more years of school somebody has, the more likely they vote for Democrats

12. Conventional vs. Unconventional Participation
Voting
Volunteering
Donating Money
Attending local governmental meetings
Signing Petitions
Boycotts
Rallies
Marches
Protests
Violent Actions

13. The Big Question
If voting is a way where the public displays their opinions on matters and selects political leaders that say they reflect those views… Then how come our government isn’t working the way the public wants it to?

14. “Government for the people, by the people”
Except….
We don’t have a balanced budget
The Equal Rights Amendment did not pass
School bussing programs continued.
No meaningful campaign finance reform
Lax gun control laws
All of these policies are supported by a majority of the people

15. Public Opinion vs. Public Policy
The purpose of the United States Government was not to have “popular rule.”
The founders looked for substantive goals and public opinion was just one of the options to get there
Federalism and a large republic contains many “publics” that don’t reach the needed consensus.

16. What is Public Opinion?
Although the definition is simple understanding how it works and what goes into it is often overlooked.

17. Qualities of Public Opinion
Intensity/Saliency
Most public opinion polls do a bad job at measuring how strongly somebody feels about an issue.

18. Saliency can influence perception of public opinion by making it appear one side has a stronger numerical base. In addition a smaller, intense group may have a better chance of influencing policy than a larger non-intense group
What do you think the percentage of people who believe abortion should be available in some form in the United States?

19. Qualities of Public Opinion?
Stability and Fluidity
The rate at which public opinion shifts over time. Any opinion that stays around the same over a long period of time is said to be stable. Any opinion that dramatically changes over a long (or short) period of time is said to be fluid

20. Stable Opinion:
Abortion

21. Fluid Opinion:
War In Iraq

22. Qualities of Public Opinion
Distribution
The typical American public opinion is distributed over many different positions (most issues do not have just two sides to it). Distribution can tell politicians how much compromise is possible on a particular issue

24. Public Opinion Polling
Qualities of a valid public opinion poll
Random Sample
A sample in which every element in a population has an equal chance of being selected
Questions must be comprehensible
People make up answers to questions they cannot understand
Questions must be fair
Cannot contain loaded language (push polling) that can influence responses

25. Public Opinion Polling
Keep In Mind
Sampling Error: In particular in close races
For a population over 500,000 pollsters need to make about 15,000 calls to reach 1,065 respondents to get a poll with a +/- error of 3%
Lack of responses hurts accuracy
Impact of Polls
Bandwagon Effect
Donations to Candidates
Voter Turnout