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Integrating administrative data – the 2021 Census and beyond

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Presentation on theme: "Integrating administrative data – the 2021 Census and beyond"— Presentation transcript:

1 Integrating administrative data – the 2021 Census and beyond
RSS 2015 Integrating administrative data – the 2021 Census and beyond Owen Abbott Office for National Statistics

2 This presentation will cover.....
Context Potential uses of admin data in 2021 Census - Support collection - Enhance population estimates - Additional topics Future use of administrative data

3 Context Ongoing ONS work exploring administrative data
National Statisticians recommendation to undertake 2021 Census reflected the need to use all available sources Building towards a recommendation in on the future of Census and population statistics

4 Objectives of using admin data
ONS are pursuing admin data to provide: Information about addresses: Improve the quality of the address register Activity data – data helping to confirm people’s residence and so improve estimates of the size of the population Characteristics data – to provide information to replace/supplement census topics and to develop new research outputs The key objectives of using admin data are: To get activity data – this is in effect signs-of-life and can be used to improve the census estimates and our admin based population estimates through confidence about location and residence status To get characteristics data – in order to replace or supplement census questions and to develop new research outputs from admin data and surveys And to improve the quality of the address frame being developed for the 2021 census – such as through information about the type of accommodation or address, whether it is a business or residential address 4

5 Background - 2011 Census 2011 Census used administrative data to:
Support collection Build Address Register (e.g. NLPG) HtC index (e.g. House prices) Enhance population estimates through Quality Assurance Mainly aggregates Some experimental record linkage (Blackwell et al, 2013)

6 Source: 2011 Census QA pack available at http://www. ons. gov

7 Potential uses in 2021 Census
Three main areas: Supporting the collection Enhancing Population estimates Adding extra topics

8 Supporting the collection
Three key collection objectives: Maximise response Minimise variation in response Efficient use of resources Note similarity with survey sample designs – want an efficient design – so you want to have information about the thing you are trying to measure (in this case the population size and makeup).

9 Supporting the collection
Enhanced address register Information about addresses e.g. Vacant, second home Enumeration of communal establishments What information already exists? Allocation of field resources Digital Exclusion Estimating initial online response Difficulty of contact/response during follow-up Prioritisation of field resource during follow-up Responsive design – who to follow-up, when to stop

10 Enhancing population estimates
Not every household or person is counted Methodology for estimating those missed: Carry out large post-enumeration survey (CCS) Match to Census Dual-system Estimation Estimate total population Quality Assurance Impute households and persons into output database

11 Framework for producing population estimates using a census
Dual System Estimation Matching Ratio estimation Census Quality Assurance Census Coverage Survey Population estimates

12 Option 1: Expand DSE to MSE
Dual System Estimation Matching Ratio estimation Census Quality Assurance Census Coverage Survey Population estimates

13 Option 1: Expand DSE to MSE
Multiple System Estimation Matching Ratio estimation Census Quality Assurance Census Coverage Survey Administrative Data Population estimates

14 Option 1: Expand DSE to MSE
Multiple System Estimation Matching Ratio estimation Census Quality Assurance Census Coverage Survey Administrative Data Log-linear modelling Population estimates

15 Option 1: Expand DSE to MSE
Multiple System Estimation Matching Ratio estimation Census Quality Assurance Census Coverage Survey Administrative Data Over-coverage Population estimates

16 Option 1: Expand DSE to MSE
Multiple System Estimation Matching Ratio estimation Census Quality Assurance Census Coverage Survey Administrative Data Over-coverage Matching error ~2% Population estimates

17 Option 2: Enhance census coverage
Dual System Estimation Matching Ratio estimation Census Quality Assurance Census Coverage Survey Population estimates

18 Option 2: Enhance census coverage
Admin Data Dual System Estimation Matching Ratio estimation Census Quality Assurance Census Coverage Survey Population estimates

19 Option 2: Enhance census coverage
Administrative data (filtered for activity) Address register Census Enhanced Census 1 The High Street 2 The High Street 3 The High Street 4 The High Street 5 The High Street 6 The High Street 7 The High Street 8 The High Street 9 The High Street 10 The High Street 11 The High Street 12 The High Street 13 The High Street 14 The High Street 15 The High Street

20 Option 2: Enhance census coverage
This approach used by NISRA in 2011 Full evaluation by Ross (2015) Findings: Added 68k persons (3.9%) in 31k (4.5%) households Reduced Confidence Intervals widths by around 20% Gains in variance with small risk of additional bias

21 Age-Sex Distribution of Census and Administrative data records

22 Estimates and Confidence Intervals
Estimation Area With CUE records Without CUE records Estimate Variance Relative CI width1 Eastern Northern Ireland 791,900 9,146,600 0.75% 782,000 14,372,000 0.95% Western Northern Ireland 535,800 10,800,700 1.20% 528,600 13,991,800 1.39% Belfast 462,000 11,562,800 1.44% 452,500 21,540,600 2.01%

23 Option 2: Enhance census coverage
This is the preferred approach for 2021: Fits within existing framework Improves quality Does not require large scale person level linkage Can evaluate through existing Census-CCS linkage Can link the administrative data to the address frame in advance Could be used to target census collection BUT Requires high quality activity data Haven’t entirely ruled out MSE

24 Adding Extra Topics Beyond 2021 project continuing to explore alternatives to a census ONS pursuing access to data sources for topics included (and not included) in a census Age Gender Tenure Car ownership Income House price Vehicle age

25 Adding Extra Topics Potential to add these to the 2021 Census
Subject to data access, quality and user needs Not much work in this area... Issues to resolve: Linkage Definitions, Lags and Quality measurement/correction? Inconsistencies with other variables – editing? Coverage – could we model/impute for missing data? Timing – part of census processing?

26 The future 2021 Census is a stepping stone towards a predominately administrative data based approach Building towards a recommendation in on the future of Census and population statistics

27 Summary Administrative data playing much larger role in 2021 Census
2021 Census designed to provide statistics that meet user needs High quality population estimates Additional output variables For 2021 and in the future Number of challenges Access Methodological

28 References Abbott, O. (2009) 2011 UK Census Coverage Assessment and Adjustment Methodology. Population Trends, 137, pp Abbott, O. and Compton, G. (2014) Counting and estimating hard-to-survey populations in the 2011 Census. In: R. Tourangeau, B. Edwards, T. Johnson, K. Wolter and N. Bates, eds Hard-to-survey populations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Ch.4. Blackwell, L., Charlesworth, A., Rogers, N. and Thorne, R. (2013) Matching of Census and administrative data for Census data quality assurance in the 2011 Census of England and Wales. Paper presented at NTTS2013 conference, Brussels. Available at ONS (2012) 2011 Census Address register. Available at ONS (2015) 2011 Census Quality Assurance Methodology: Evaluation Report. Available at Ross, H. (2015) Using administrative data to enhance the quality of census population estimates. MSc. University of Southampton.


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