1. Integrated Development and Climate Policies in Brazil
Development and Climate Workshop
“Integrated Development and Climate policies: how to realise benefits at national and international level?”
Emilio Lèbre La Rovere
Paris, 20th –22nd September, 2006

2. MAJOR FEATURES OF THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY - 2002
GDP
US$ 500 billion
Population of 174 million inhabitants
GDP/cap
US$ 2,800/y
Surface:
8.5 million km2

3. GHG Emissions in Brazil
1st National Communication: Inventory of
Brazilian GHG Emissions in
776 million tons CO2 = emissions from LULUCF in 1994 (2% increase from 1990) = three times higher than emissions from the energy system
GHG emissions from cattle raising activities: nearly equal to CO2 emissions from fossil fuels
237 million tons CO2 = emissions from fossil fuels combustion in 1994 (16% increase from 1990)
Medium and long-term prospects:
CO2 emissions from energy will be dominant

4. Challenges in Land-use Change Emissions
Deforestation drivers go far beyond economic factors;
Key drivers from social policies
Lack of access to land x agrarian reform
Governance:
land-use planning x enforcement of laws & regulations;
How far will Amazon deforestation go?
Huge potential for reforestation of degraded land (30 million hectares).

5. Scenarios RefA2 EP A2 NP A2 RefB2 EP B2 NP B2 SRES A2 Scenarios
SRES B2
EP B2
NP B2

6. Income Distribution in A2

7. Income Distribution in B2

8. Total CO2 Emissions from the Energy System

9. Conclusion: Integrated Development and Climate Policies
Energy efficiency in industry and transport
Natural gas in industry + residential and commercial sectors
Hydropower potential to be tapped
Ethanol: domestic production + exports
Biodiesel in transport sector
Renewable power generation in remote areas (access to electricity for rural population)