1. POLI 102: July 27, 2017
Lecture #8: Elections

2. Elections Why have elections?
Obviously, they are instrumental in picking leaders
They also serve to activate the citizenry in actions in favor of the state
Picking something up makes you like it more – voting makes you like the gov’t more.

3. Elections So, how do elections work?
All citizens over the age of 18 are eligible to vote.
You can vote as absentee/write-in or you can go to a polling place.
Election day for Presidential and Congressional elections is always the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
After the harvests come in, but before the bad winter storms.
“The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States.” –Article Two, US Constitution
The Congress mandated the current date at the end of the 19th century.

4. Elections
Polling Places can be almost anywhere accessible to the public. People, organizations, and businesses can volunteer to have their location used.
Places I have voted: Several churches, several schools, a person’s garage, a dentist’s office, and a VFW hall.
Find your polling place:
Just google “polling place california”

5. Election There must be one polling place per precinct.
Voting data will be available at the precinct level.
For example:
Precincts are organized into districts of varying kinds for different positions.
Different districts are combined for city council, US Congress, California State Assembly, etc…

6. Polling Places

7. Polling Places Usually staffed by 4-7 volunteers
Typically old folks with gray/silver hair, and one young dude trying to fulfill some kind of Boy Scout requirement.
They get excited to see you.
They are nice and helpful.
They check you in, give you your ballot and a pen, then take your ballot and give you a sticker! You love stickers!
In some places they actually hand count the results after the polling place closes, certify the results, and send the results along with ballots to registrar of voters. In some places, the ballots are tabulated electronically, and a receipt is issued for verification. Varies by state.

8. Some districts I am in

9. US Congress – 52nd district

10. CA State Assembly 77th district

11. San Diego City Council District 6.

12. How are districts determined?
Varies by state
In some states the state legislature makes a map and votes on it.
Can lead to gerrymandering
Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania
Ohio:
Florida:
Pennsylvania:

13. Gerrymandering Why gerrymander? Protect incumbents
Maximize district wins for a particular party
Allow particular communities-of-interest to get representatives
Descriptive representation

14. Districts in California
California’s state senate, assembly, and board of equalization maps, and the US Congressional district maps are created by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission
14 CA citizens create districts
5 Dems
5 Reps
4 from neither major party
Created by Props 11 and 20 in 2008, 2010

15. Districts in California
Things that the redistricting commission consider to create districts:
Population equality
Federal Voting Rights Act
Geographic Continuity
Geographic Integrity
Geographic Compactness
Nesting – fitting two assembly districts into one CA Senate district.

16. Why are certain candidates on the ballot?
Candidates file a form with the state, pay a fee, and need to show a certain level of support. Varies for position and state.
Primaries are a common way of getting the support of political parties.
Primaries allow voters to vote on their party’s nominee for the general election
Primaries are in, kind of, a gray area. Not really controlled by constitution, parties have greater flexibility.
Precise rules vary by state
In California, you get a list with all candidates and the top two go on to face each other in the general election.
Meant to provide more representation and less polarization in the general election.

17. Exit Polls
2008:
2012:
2014:
Voting is somewhat predictable based upon:
Race
Gender
Geographic location
Religiosity
Income

18. SMDP elections The United States uses SMDP-style elections
SMDP = Single-Member District Plurality
Advantages
Disadvantages
A common alternative is PR system
PR equals proportional representation

19. Median Voter Theorem
Under a two-party SMDP system, the median voter theorem predicts that both parties will attempt to maximize their vote-count by moderating and “moving to the center.” Therefore, theoretically the person right at the median decides the preferred policy choices of the country and decides our elections.
Theory aims to show why parties often “say and do the same things” and it “doesn’t really matter who I vote for, they’re all the same.”
Doesn’t actually work that way totally, but kinda, sorta.

20. Median Voter Theorem

21. Paradox of Voting
Strictly speaking, it is not completely rational to bother voting.
Your vote has almost no chance of actually effecting the outcome of an election. So, why bother?
There is really no sensible, selfish reason to bother voting. It is done out of a sense of duty, community spirit, and social pressure. And, that’s a good thing!