1. "GS" - Social and Cultural Geography
Blossoming evolution – a synthesis of long-term evolutionary global worldviews
“Globalistics 2013” conference, theme “Global Evolutionism”, Lomonosov State University Moscow, Russian Federation
Gilbert Ahamer, Mattersburg Circle for Development Policy at Austrian Universities
© Gilbert Ahamer
(c) Gilbert Ahamer

2. What will we see here?
Contemplate theoretical “clarities” along your paths
World systems theory
Critical geography
Dependency theory
Quantitative revolution
Growth theory
Possibilism
Narrative history
Environm. determinism
Neo-classical economics
Keynesian economics
Political economics
Global Studies train: “When do I use which theory?”

3. What will we do here? Act along some of these lines: run your paths
contemplate...
… & act!
Images: Olympia; temple of Zeus, stadium, map of sanctuary

4. Views from social, economic and cultural geographies1.
Views from social, economic and cultural geographies
Global Studies 4
Gilbert Ahamer

5. The “magnetic field” of our globalisation discourse
"GS" - Social and Cultural Geography
The “magnetic field” of our globalisation discourse
Modernisation theory
The concept of modernisation tries to replace earlier concepts such as “development” (in case of negative sign: underdevelopment, backwardness) or progress by a value-free term but is never-theless still tacitly used connected with an emphasis on values and teleological orientation.
Dependency theory
Reason for underdevelopment of countries would not be internal but external factors such as especially colonialism. By executing power the developed countries would succeed in keeping the less developed countries in an ongoing state of poverty.
Global Studies 5
Gilbert Ahamer
(c) Gilbert Ahamer

6. “Why are some rich and some poor?”
"GS" - Social and Cultural Geography
“Why are some rich and some poor?”
Classical “growth theory” tries to understand causes of economic growth, it sees economic growth constituted by “production factors” such as
Capital / investment
Soil / land
Labour / workforce
Technology
Education
Human resources
… and cautiously extends out to cultural and political parameters …
… and strongly believes in correlations of points …? ?
Are economies converging or diverging over the course of time?
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 6
See Paul Rosling’s (optimistic) view of development at gapminder, flixxy or youtube
(c) Gilbert Ahamer

7. Main types of view of a global future
Global Studies is a multi- paradigmatic science!
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 7

8. Long-term trends in socio-economic and civilisational development2.
Long-term trends in socio-economic and civilisational development
Global Studies 8
Gilbert Ahamer

9. Representing dynamics globally: data
Materials and methods in this step:
The “Global Change Data Base” (GCDB, © G. Ahamer) =
Global data sets for
population
land use
economy
energy
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 9

10. Transformation of co-ordinates
"GS" - Social and Cultural Geography
Transformation of co-ordinates
Instead of plotting reality as a function of time
We decide to plot reality as a function of GDP/cap
… in order to better perceive structural changes and patterns of global dynamic change
= real time: complex graphic structure
 evolutionary time of development: simpler graphical structure
time t
GDP/cap
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 10
(c) Gilbert Ahamer

11. Evolving pattern in economic structures
"GS" - Social and Cultural Geography
Evolving pattern in economic structures
… inspired by evolving patterns in energy structures (Marchetti & Nakicenovic at IIASA):
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 11
(c) Gilbert Ahamer

12. Growth rates in the global agricultural system
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 12
Detailed explanation of this EU project: read here

13. Structural shifts for energy sources
"GS" - Social and Cultural Geography
Structural shifts for energy sources
How do percentages of fuels change?
shares
change rates of shares
(c) Gilbert Ahamer

14. We observe the following transitions:
Population transition
Land use change transition / deforestation tr.
Agricultural & food transition
Transition of economic sectors
Energy transition
Nonetheless, we don’t believe in determinism: design, act and construct the world!
Hope = (voluntary) learning effects
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 14

15. Evolution and change in structures of needs3.
Evolution and change in structures of needs
Global Studies 15
Gilbert Ahamer

16. A principal evolutionary pattern?
"GS" - Social and Cultural Geography
initial value: flow =
A principal evolutionary pattern?
Evolution often seems to follow a sigma curve (saturation curve)
Global Studies 16
Gilbert Ahamer
(c) Gilbert Ahamer

17. Thinking in paths as a hypothesis ...
... means: along evolution towards higher GDP/cap some paths of development are more likely than others
Possible heuristic confirmation by phenomena: establish correlations
example: the “growth literature”: Y = f(“factors”) such as capital, land, human ressources, education, institutional structure ...
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 17

18. A possible overall view on evolution!
"GS" - Social and Cultural Geography
A possible overall view on evolution!
Do targets themselves evolve along evolution?
... the more targets are fulfilled, the more they seem to decrease in importance
We see: systemic structures themselves evolve, not only levels of values
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 18
(c) Gilbert Ahamer

19. A possible genesis of “targets”?
"GS" - Social and Cultural Geography
A possible genesis of “targets”?
Global Studies 19
Gilbert Ahamer
(c) Gilbert Ahamer

20. One ”preconceptive understanding” (Schumpeter)
"GS" - Social and Cultural Geography
One ”preconceptive understanding” (Schumpeter)
A proposed paradigm
(“para – deiknumi“ = “up-show”)
Techno-socio-economic evolution
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1950), a colleague of Vernadsky
convergence – divergence?
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 20
(c) Gilbert Ahamer

21. Paul Raskin: “Transitions”
Paul Raskin at SEI and his team produced a seminal book (see ppt in WebCT) :
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 21

22. Shifting views: a principle along evolution?
Gilbert Ahamer
Global Studies 22

23. ... for your comments and critical questions!
Thank you...
... for your comments and critical questions! !!