1. Duffin Creek WPCP Optimized Renewal Planning & Decision-Making
Faruque Mia: Infrastructure Engineer, Region of York
Aman Singh: Lead Business Consulting, GHD Canada
CNAM 2014 Conference
Toronto, Ontario
May 20-23, 2014

2. Agenda Duffin Creek WPCP Overview Infrastructure Management Framework
Processes
Data Requirements
Implementation Plan

3. Duffin Creek WPCP Overview

4. Duffin Creek WPCP Overview
Accepts wastewater flows from both the Regions of York and Durham
Stage 3 built in 2010 to increase treatment capacity to 630 MLD
Stages 1 & 2 undergoing renewal works

5. IM Framework – Overview
Objectives
Provide a systematic approach for optimizing decisions for infrastructure renewal planning
Determine decision variables needed for renewal planning
Develop frameworks that feed information into existing decision making processes for Infrastructure Renewal projects

6. IM Framework – Overview
Approach
Consider processes, data, systems, people
Multi-level practice
Prioritization and optimization
Multi-year implementation

7. IM Framework – Processes1
Establish Customer & Asset LOS, KPIs & Targets 2
Set Asset Hierarchy, Inventory & Baseline Data Requirements 3
Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data 4 5
Evaluate & Report Asset Performance
Model Asset Deterioration 6
Assess Criticality & Risk 7
Optimize Renewal Decision Making
Infrastructure Improvement Planning (IIP)

8. Set Asset Hierarchy, Inventory & Baseline Data Requirements2
IM Framework –
Set Asset Hierarchy, Inventory & Baseline Data Requirements
????

9. Model Asset Deterioration
IM Framework – 5
Model Asset Deterioration
Asset Deterioration Model
CI(t) = Cnew*EXP(-((t/(TSL/-LN(Cpoor/Cnew)^(1/Alpha)))^Alpha))

10. Model Asset Deterioration
IM Framework – 5
Model Asset Deterioration
Self-Correcting Condition-Based Deterioration Model
CI(t) = Cnew*EXP(-((t/(TlatestCdn/-LN(Clatest/Cnew)^(1/Alpha)))^Alpha)))

11. Model Asset Deterioration
IM Framework – 5
Model Asset Deterioration
Self-Correcting Condition-Based Deterioration Model

12. Model Asset Deterioration
IM Framework – 5
Model Asset Deterioration
Self-Correcting Condition-Based Deterioration Model

13. Assess Criticality & Risk
IM Framework – 6
Assess Criticality & Risk
Risk Assessment Data

14. Assess Criticality & Risk
IM Framework – 6
Assess Criticality & Risk
Weighted Risk Score

15. Assess Criticality & Risk
IM Framework – 6
Assess Criticality & Risk
Redundancy

16. Assess Criticality & Risk
IM Framework – 6
Assess Criticality & Risk
Risk Score → CI at Replace

17. Optimize Renewal Decision Making7
IM Framework –
Optimize Renewal Decision Making
Service Life based on Failure State set by Risk Level

18. Optimize Renewal Decision Making7
IM Framework –
Optimize Renewal Decision Making
Service Life based on Failure State set by Risk Level
T(CI) = TCdn/(-LN(Clatest/Cnew))^(1/Alpha)*-LN(CI/Cnew)^(1/Alpha)

19. Optimize Renewal Decision Making7
IM Framework –
Optimize Renewal Decision Making
Outputs
Forecast Replacement Year & Cost
Forecast Remaining Service Life
Forecast Inspection Type & Timing
Forecast 10-year Ave Annual Expenditure

20. Optimize Renewal Decision Making7
IM Framework –
Optimize Renewal Decision Making
Outputs
Forecast Replacement Year & Cost
Forecast Remaining Service Life
Forecast Inspection Type & Timing
Forecast 10-year Ave Annual Expenditure

21. Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data3
IM Framework –
Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data
Direct Condition Rating
Grade
Condition CI
Deficiencies 1
Excellent
100
Very good physical condition – no wear & tear, no or minimum risk of failure
Capacity appears adequate (where applicable)
Performance meets expectation
Minimum or no maintenance requirement
1.5
Excellent to Good 90 2
Good 80
Good physical condition – minor wear & tear, minimum risk of failure
Minimum maintenance requirement
2.5
Good to Fair 70 3
Fair 60
Acceptable physical condition – moderate wear & tear, moderate risk of failure
Performance still meets expectation
Moderate maintenance requirement
3.5
Fair to Poor 50 4
Poor 40
Poor physical condition – heavy wear & tear, significant risk of failure
Capacity appears still adequate (if applicable)
Performance barely meet expectation
Heavy maintenance requirement
4.5
Poor to Very Poor 30 5
Very Poor 20
Bad physical condition – heavy wear & tear, failure is imminent
Asset cannot be operated safely without rehab or replacement

22. Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data3
IM Framework –
Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data
Distress Survey

23. Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data3
IM Framework –
Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data
Condition Index

24. Evaluate & Report Asset Performance
IM Framework – 4
Evaluate & Report Asset Performance
Types
Customer
Asset
Program

25. Evaluate & Report Asset Performance
IM Framework – 4
Evaluate & Report Asset Performance
Customer
Cost of Wastewater Treatment & Disposal per Megalitre (at Duffin Creek WPCP)
5 Year Running Average Capital Reinvestment / Replacement Value
•Capital Reinvestment / 1,000 ML Treated

26. Evaluate & Report Asset Performance
IM Framework – 4
Evaluate & Report Asset Performance
Asset
Are we keeping our assets in the appropriate condition to adequately manage risk?
Catastrophic CoF Assets: % of assets that exceed Cdn Grade 2 (worse than Good)
For Major CoF Assets: % of assets that exceed Cdn Grade 3 (are worse than Fair)
For Moderate CoF Assets: % of assets that exceed Cdn Grade 4 (are worse than Poor)

27. Evaluate & Report Asset Performance
IM Framework – 4
Evaluate & Report Asset Performance
Program
Consistency in Renewal Cost Modeling
Cost of Asset Renewal: Actual vs Budget
Effectiveness of Asset End of Life Prediction
Reactive Maintenance Ratio

28. IM Framework – Data Req’ts

29. Optimize Renewal Decision Making
IM Framework – 7
Optimize Renewal Decision Making
What is optimized decision making?
Systematic search for lowest-cost renewal investment

30. Optimize Renewal Decision Making
IM Framework – 7
Optimize Renewal Decision Making
What is optimized decision making?
Based on interaction of
Cost trends (direct O&M, indirect)
Condition trends (decay/survivor curve)
Risk-consequence trends

31. Optimize Renewal Decision Making
IM Framework – 7
Optimize Renewal Decision Making
Optimization
Forecast Lifecycle Costs for each option

32. Optimize Renewal Decision Making
IM Framework – 7
Optimize Renewal Decision Making
Optimization
Select lowest-cost renewal investment

33. Implementation Plan
Understanding the Gaps
Addressing the Gaps

34. Questions? Contact Us: Faruque Mia
Infrastructure Engineer, Region of York
Aman Singh
Lead Business Consulting, GHD Canada