1. Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa 2007-2012 Outlook
Mercyhurst Intelligence Estimate
Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook
12 November 2007
Team Non-State Actors:
Mark Blair
Daniel McNulty
Brittany Monteparte
Andreea Neagu
Adrienne Sluga

2. Agenda Requirements Non-State Actor Key Findings
Methodological Key Findings
Guided Tour Of The Wiki

3. Requirement
What role will non-state actors (NSAs) play and what impact will NSAs have in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next five years?
What is the likely importance of NSAs vs. State Actors, Supra-State Actors and other relevant categories of actors in Sub-Saharan Africa?
What are the roles of these actors in key countries, such as Niger?
Are there geographic, cultural, economic or other patterns of activity along which the roles of these actors are either very different or strikingly similar?
What analytical processes and methodologies were applied to the questions above and which proved to be effective or ineffective?

4. What Role Will Non-State Actors (NSAs) Play And What Impact Will NSAs Have In Sub-Saharan Africa Over The Next Five Years?

5. Key Findings
NSAs, On Average, Likely Play A Limited Role In Sub-Saharan Africa
NSA Roles Unlikely To Change
Even Split Between Current Government Sanctioned And Extra-Government Role Potentials
Government Sanctioned Role Potentials:
(e.g. Unions, Lobbyists, Privatization)
Extra-Government Role Potentials:
(e.g. Violence, Bribery, etc.)

6. Key Findings
Government Sanctioned Roles Likely To Moderately Increase Over The Next Five Years
Extra-Government Roles Likely To See No Increase Within The Next Five Years

7. What Is The Likely Importance Of NSAs Versus State Actors And Supra-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa?

8. NSA Versus State Actors
State Actors Likely To Have More Influence In Sub-Saharan Africa
On Average, Government Control Likely To Stay The Same Within The Next Five Years

9. NSA Versus Supra-State Actors
Two Supra-State Organizations Likely Have Significant Influence In Sub-Saharan Africa
European Union
United Nations
It Is Unlikely That They Will Impact The Role Of NSAs Now And In The Next Five Years

10. What Are The Roles Of Non-State Actors (NSAs) In Key Countries, Such As Niger?

11. Key Countries
Angola, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, And South Africa Likely Key Countries To US
Strategic Locations
Military Importance
Vast Natural Resources
Counterterrorism Initiatives
NSAs Likely Play Little To No Role In Key Countries Currently And Over The Next Five Years
Current Role
Role in 2012
Key Countries
1 GS
All Countries

12. Are There Geographic, Cultural, Economic Or Other Patterns Of Activity Along Which The Roles Of These Actors Are Either Very Different Or Strikingly Similar?

13. Overall NSA Role Scores
Government Sanctioned Role Potentials
Extra-Government
Role Potentials 5 2 1 3 4 No
Role
Multiple
Significant
Roles
Multiple
Significant
Roles
MALI
2-GS
CAPE VERDE
2-GS
ERITREA
2-EG
MAURITANIA
1-EG
NIGER
2-EG
CHAD
4-EG
DJIBOUTI
1-EG
SUDAN
2-EG
SENEGAL
2-GS
BURKINA
FASO 2-EG
NIGERIA
1-EG
THE GAMBIA
1-GS
COTE
D’IVOIRE
2-EG
GHANA
2-GS
ETHIOPIA
1-GS
CENTRAL
AFRICAN REP.
4-EG
GUINEA-BISSAU
2-EG
CAMEROON
1-EG
TOGO
2-EG
BENIN
2-GS
GUINEA
3-EG
LIBERIA
3-EG
UGANDA
2-GS
KENYA
2-GS/EG
SOMALIA
5-EG
GABON
2-GS
SIERRA LEONE
2-EG
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
2-EG
DROC
3-EG
RWANDA
1-GS/EG
TANZANIA
2-GS
BURUNDI
2-EG
MALAWI
1-GS
SAO TOME & PRINCIPE
1-GS
SEYECHELLES
2-GS
REP. OF CONGO
3-EG
ANGOLA
1-EG
COMOROS
1-GS
ZAMBIA
1-GS
MAURITIUS
4-GS
ZIMBABWE
2-EG
NAMIBIA
3-GS
BOTSWANA
4-GS
MADAGASCAR
2-GS
MOZAMBIQUE
1-GS
S. AFRICA
4-GS
SWAZILAND
1-GS
LESOTHO
2-GS

14. Patterns Of Activity: Geographic
Southern And Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa:
Region Likely Influenced By Government Sanctioned NSAs
Government Sanctioned NSAs Likely To Increase Influence Over Next Five Years
Southern And Eastern Region 5 2 1 3 4
Government Sanctioned Role Potentials
Extra-Government
Role Potentials
Overall NSA Role Scores No
Role
Multiple
Significant
Roles

15. Patterns Of Activity: Geographic
Central Region
Central Sub-Saharan Africa:
Region Likely Influenced By Extra-Government NSAs
NSA Role Unlikely To Change Over Next Five Years 5 2 1 3 4
Government Sanctioned Role Potentials
Extra-Government
Role Potentials
Overall NSA Role Scores No
Role
Multiple
Significant
Roles

16. Patterns Of Activity: Geographic
Western Region
Western Sub-Saharan Africa
NSAs Likely Play A Wide Variety Of Roles
No Clear Trends 5 2 1 3 4
Government Sanctioned Role Potentials
Extra-Government
Role Potentials
Overall NSA Role Scores No
Role
Multiple
Significant
Roles

17. Patterns Of Activity: NSA Correlations
It Is Likely That Certain Types Of NSAs Support Each Other
Strong Correlation Between NGOs And Businesses (.86)
Terrorist Groups More Represented In Countries With More State Control
Strong correlation between the number of NGOs and businesses within the border of any single country.

18. Methodology

19. Key Findings
It Is Likely That Multiple Methods Of Analysis Create High Confidence And Prove Highly Efficient
The Fundamental Method – Role Potential Spectrum
Government Sanctioned And Extra-Government Role Potentials
Represents Likely Role Potentials of Lawful And Unlawful NSAs

20. NSA Role Potential Spectrum

21. Analysis Of Competing Hypothesis (ACH)
Provided Confidence In A Specific Country’s Role Potential Score
Looked At Other Factors Score Might Not Consider

22. NGOs In Sub-Saharan Africa
Geospatial Analysis
Confirmed Geographic Patterns In Four Separate Indices With Regards To NGOS, Businesses, And Terrorist Groups
NGOs In Sub-Saharan Africa

23. Visualization
It Is Likely That Visualization Of The Data Allows For Patterns To Be Easily Visible

24. Wiki Information Login Wikispaces: E-mail: www.wikispaces.com
Username: billreynolds
Password: reynolds
Password: burkinafaso11

25. Thank You
Contact Information
Mark Blair:
Dan McNulty:
Brittany Monteparte:
Andreea Neagu:
Adrienne Sluga: